weather had no effect at all on reported happiness! The explicit priming of
weather provided them with an explanation of their mood, undermining the
connection that would normally be made between current mood and overall
happiness.
view of the benefits : Melissa L. Finucane et al., “The Affect Heuristic in
Judgments of Risks and Benefits,” Journal of Behavioral Decision
Making 13 (2000): 1–17.
10: The Law of Small Numbers
“It is both...without additives” : Howard Wainer and Harris L. Zwerling,
“Evidence That Smaller Schools Do Not Improve Student Achievement,”
Phi Delta Kappan 88 (2006): 300–303. The example was discussed by
Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan, Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).
50% risk of failing : Jacob Cohen, “The Statistical Power of Abnormal-
Social Psychological Research: A Review,” Journal of Abnormal and
Social Psychology 65 (1962): 145–53.
“Belief in the Law of Small Numbers” : Amos Tversky and Daniel
Kahneman, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin
76 (1971): 105–10.
“statistical intuitions...whenever possible” : The contrast that we drew
between intuition and computation seems to foreshadow the distinction
between Systems 1 and 2, but we were a long way from the perspective of
this book. We used intuition to cover anything but a computation, any
informal way to reach a conclusion.
German spies : William Feller, Introduction to Probability Theory and Its
Applications (New York: Wiley, 1950).
randomness in basketball : Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos
Tversky, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random
Sequences,” Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295–314.
11: Anchors
“‘reasonable’ volume” : Robyn Le Boeuf and Eldar Shafir, “The Long and
Short of It: Physical Anchoring Effects,” Journal of Behavioral Decision
Making 19 (2006): 393–406.
nod their head : Nicholas Epley and Thomas Gilovich, “Putting Adjustment
Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: Differential Processing of
Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors,” Psychological