Thinking, Fast and Slow

Knew It Would Happen: Remembered Probabilities of Once Future
Things,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13 (1975): 1–
16.
quality of a decision : Jonathan Baron and John C. Hershey, “Outcome
Bias in Decision {s iiv> Evaluation,” Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology 54 (1988): 569–79.
should have hired the monitor : Kim A. Kamin and Jeffrey Rachlinski, “Ex
Post? Ex Ante: Determining Liability in Hindsight,” Law and Human
Behavior 19 (1995): 89–104. Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, “A Positive
Psychological Theory of Judging in Hindsight,” University of Chicago Law
Review 65 (1998): 571–625.
tidbit of intelligence : Jeffrey Goldberg, “Letter from Washington:
Woodward vs. Tenet,” New Yorker , May 21, 2007, 35–38. Also Tim
Weiner, Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA (New York: Doubleday,
2007); “Espionage: Inventing the Dots,” Economist , November 3, 2007,
100.
reluctance to take risks : Philip E. Tetlock, “Accountability: The Neglected
Social Context of Judgment and Choice,” Research in Organizational
Behavior 7 (1985): 297–332.
before their current appointment : Marianne Bertrand and Antoinette
Schoar, “Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (2003): 1169–1208. Nick Bloom and
John Van Reenen, “Measuring and Explaining Management Practices
Across Firms and Countries,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122
(2007): 1351–1408.
“How often will you find...” : I am indebted to Professor James H. Steiger of
Vanderbilt University, who developed an algorithm that answers this
question, under plausible assumptions. Steiger’s analysis shows that
correlations of .20 and .40 are associated, respectively, with inversion
rates of 43% and 37%.
his penetrating book : The Halo Effect was praised as one of the best
business books of the year by both the Financial Times and The Wall
Street Journal : Phil Rosenzweig, The Halo Effect:...and the Eight Other
Business Delusions That Deceive Managers (New York: Simon &
Schuster, 2007). See also Paul Olk and Phil Rosenzweig, “The Halo Effect
and the Challenge of Management Inquiry: A Dialog Between Phil
Rosenzweig and Paul Olk,” Journal of Management Inquiry 19 (2010):
48–54.
“a visionary company” : James C. Collins and Jerry I. Porras, Built to Last:
Successful Habits of Visionary Companies (New York: Harper, 2002).