wealth from amateurs : Research on stock trades in Taiwan concluded that
the transfer of wealth from individuals to financial institutions amounts to a
staggering 2.2% of GDP: Brad M. Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and
Terrance Odean, “Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by
Trading?” Review of Financial Studies 22 (2009): 609–32.
underperform the overall market : John C. Bogle, Common Sense on
Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor (New York:
Wiley, 2000), 213.
persistent differences in skill : Mark Grinblatt and Sheridan Titman, “The
Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance,” Journal of Finance 42 (1992):
1977–84. Edwin J. Elton et al., “The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual
Fund Performance,” Journal of Business 52 (1997): 1–33. Edwin Elton et
al., “Efficiency With Costly Information: A Re-interpretation of Evidence
from Managed Portfolios,” Review of Financial Studies 6 (1993): 1–21.
“In this age of academic hyperspecialization” : Philip E. Tetlock, Expert
Political Judgment: ̶> How Good is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 2005), 233.

21: Intuitions vs. Formulas

“There is no controversy” : Paul Meehl, “Causes and Effects of My
Disturbing Little Book,” Journal of Personality Assessment 50 (1986):
370–75.
a factor of 10 or more : During the 1990–1991 auction season, for
example, the price in London of a case of 1960 Chateau Latour averaged
$464; a case of the 1961 vintage (one of the best ever) fetched an
average of $5,432.
Experienced radiologists : Paul J. Hoffman, Paul Slovic, and Leonard G.
Rorer, “An Analysis-of-Variance Model for the Assessment of Configural
Cue Utilization in Clinical Judgment,” Psychological Bulletin 69 (1968):
338–39.
internal corporate audits : Paul R. Brown, “Independent Auditor Judgment
in the Evaluation of Internal Audit Functions,” Journal of Accounting
Research 21 (1983): 444–55.
41 separate studies : James Shanteau, “Psychological Characteristics and
Strategies of Expert Decision Makers,” Acta Psychologica 68 (1988):
203–15.
successive food breaks : Danziger, Levav, and Avnaim-Pesso,
“Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions.”
lowering validity : Richard A. DeVaul et al., “Medical-School Performance