for the shared conclusion is striking, and rather suspect.
admired as a hero : Simon was one of the towering intellectual figures of
the twentieth century. He wrote a classic on decision making in
organizations while still in his twenties, and among many other
achievements he went on to be one of the founders of the field of artificial
intelligence, a leader in cognitive science, an influential student of the
process of scientific discovery, a forerunner of behavioral economics and,
almost incidentally, a Nobel laureate in economics.
“nothing less than recognition” : Simon, “What Is an Explanation of
Behavior?” David G. Myers, Intuition: Its Powers and Perils (New Haven:
Yale University Press, 2002), 56.
“without knowing how he knows” : Seymour Epstein, “Demystifying Intuition:
What It Is, What It Does, How It Does It,” Psychological Inquiry 21 (2010):
295–312.
10,000 hours : Foer, Moonwalking with Einstein.

23: The Outside View

inside view and the outside view : The labels are often misunderstood.
Numerous authors believed that the correct terms were “insider view” and
“outsider view,” which are not even close to what we had in mind.
very different answers : Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman, “Timid
Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking,”
Management Science 39 (1993): 17–31. Daniel Kahneman and Dan
Lovallo, “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’
Decisions,” Harvard Business Review 81 (2003): 56–63.
“Pallid” statistical information : Richard E. Nisbett and Lee D. Ross,
Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment
(Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980).
impersonality of procedures : Fo {i> How Doctors Think (New York:
Mariner Books, 2008), 6.
planning fallacy : Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Intuitive
Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures,” Management Science 12
(1979): 313–27.
Scottish Parliament building : Rt. Hon. The Lord Fraser of Carmyllie, “The
Holyrood Inquiry, Final Report,” September 8, 2004,
http://www.holyroodinquiry.org/FINAL_report/report.htm.
did not become more reliant on it : Brent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris
Holm, and Søren L. Buhl, “How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in
Public Works Projects?” Journal of the American Planning Association
71 (2005): 131–46.