survey of American homeowners : “2002 Cost vs. Value Report,”
Remodeling , November 20, 2002.
completion times : Brent Flyvbjerg, “From Nobel Prize to Project
Management: Getting Risks Right,” Project Management Journal 37
(2006): 5–15.
sunk-cost fallacy : Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer, “The Psychology of
Sunk Cost,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35
(1985): 124–40. Hal R. Arkes and Peter Ayton, “The Sunk Cost and
Concorde Effects: Are Humans Less Rational Than Lower Animals?”
Psychological Bulletin 125 (1998): 591–600.

24: The Engine of Capitalism

you already feel fortunate : Miriam A. Mosing et al., “Genetic and
Environmental Influences on Optimism and Its Relationship to Mental and
Self-Rated Health: A Study of Aging Twins,” Behavior Genetics 39 (2009):
597–604. David Snowdon, Aging with Grace: What the Nun Study
Teaches Us About Leading Longer, Healthier, and More Meaningful
Lives (New York: Bantam Books, 2001).
bright side of everything : Elaine Fox, Anna Ridgewell, and Chris Ashwin,
“Looking on the Bright Side: Biased Attention and the Human Serotonin
Transporter Gene,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B 276 (2009):
1747–51.
“triumph of hope over experience” : Manju Puri and David T. Robinson,
“Optimism and Economic Choice,” Journal of Financial Economics 86
(2007): 71–99.
more sanguine than midlevel managers : Lowell W. Busenitz and Jay B.
Barney, “Differences Between Entrepreneurs and Managers in Large
Organizations: Biases and Heuristics in Strategic Decision-Making,”
Journal of Business Venturing 12 (1997): 9–30.
admiration of others : Entrepreneurs who have failed are sustained in their
confidence by the probably mistaken belief that they have learned a great
deal from the experience. Gavin Cassar and Justin Craig, “An Investigation
of Hindsight Bias in Nascent Venture Activity,” Journal of Business
Venturing 24 ( {>
influence on the lives of others : Keith M. Hmieleski and Robert A. Baron,
“Entrepreneurs’ Optimism and New Venture Performance: A Social
Cognitive Perspective,” Academy of Management Journal 52 (2009):
473–88. Matthew L. A. Hayward, Dean A. Shepherd, and Dale Griffin, “A
Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship,” Management Science 52 (2006):