and the Selection of Cases for Trial,” Michigan Law Review 90 (1991):
319–93.
the frivolous claim : Chris Guthrie, “Framing Frivolous Litigation: A
Psychological Theory,” University of Chicago Law Review 67 (2000):
163–216.

30: Rare Events

wish to avoid it : George F. Loewenstein, Elke U. Weber, Christopher K.
Hsee, and Ned Welch, “Risk as Feelings,” Psychological Bulletin 127
(2001): 267–86.
vividness in decision making : Ibid. Cass R. Sunstein, “Probability
Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law,” Yale Law Journal 112 (2002):
61–107. See notes to chapter 13: Damasio, Descartes’ Error. Slovic,
Finucane, Peters, and MacGregor, “The {r, n>: C. A Affect Heuristic.”
Amos’s student : Craig R. Fox, “Strength of Evidence, Judged Probability,
and Choice Under Uncertainty,” Cognitive Psychology 38 (1999): 167–89.
focal event and its : Judgments of the probabilities of an event and its
complement do not always add up to 100%. When people are asked
about a topic they know very little about (“What is your probability that the
temperature in Bangkok will exceed 100° tomorrow at noon?”), the judged
probabilities of the event and its complement add up to less than 100%.
receiving a dozen roses : In cumulative prospect theory, decision weights
for gains and losses are not assumed to be equal, as they were in the
original version of prospect theory that I describe.
superficial processing : The question about the two urns was invented by
Dale T. Miller, William Turnbull, and Cathy McFarland, “When a
Coincidence Is Suspicious: The Role of Mental Simulation,” Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology 57 (1989): 581–89. Seymour Epstein
and his colleagues argued for an interpretation of it in terms of two
systems: Lee A. Kirkpatrick and Seymour Epstein, “Cognitive-Experiential
Self-Theory and Subjective Probability: Evidence for Two Conceptual
Systems,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 63 (1992): 534–
44.
judged it as more dangerous : Kimihiko Yamagishi, “When a 12.86%
Mortality Is More Dangerous Than 24.14%: Implications for Risk
Communication,” Applied Cognitive Psychology 11 (1997): 495–506.
forensic psychologists : Slovic, Monahan, and MacGregor, “Violence Risk
Assessment and Risk Communication.”
“1 of 1,000 capital cases” : Jonathan J. Koehler, “When Are People