The EconomistFebruary 1st 2020 Asia 311H
ow to divideIndia into administra-
tive units is a question that has vexed
all its governments. For a time the main fo-
cus was to rationalise, as hundreds of feu-
dal “princely” states were swept into the
bigger provinces of the Indian republic. But
since 1960 the number of states and territo-
ries has been rising, as different groups
have successfully lobbied for their own
unit, on the basis of language, ethnicity or
administrative convenience. There were
20 in 1956; now there are 36.
Few areas have seen as much upheaval
as the north-east, an ethnically mixed re-
gion of 50m people that was almost cut off
from the rest of the country by the creation
of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1947.
It began as a single state, Assam, plus two
principalities, Manipur and Tripura. It has
since splintered into seven states, as Arun-
achal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram and
Nagaland have been hived off Assam (see
map). The region is still replete with dis-
gruntled factions, however: it has spawned
more than 125 insurgencies since the 1950s.
Their varied struggles for statehood, inde-
pendence or simply to clobber rival
groups—many of these micro-conflicts
have pitted “natives” against migrants—
have left perhaps 40,000 dead.
Only recently have years of patient car-
rot-and-stick efforts by the central govern-
ment, helped by better intelligence,
tougher military tactics and stronger co-
operation from neighbouring Bangladesh
and Myanmar, begun to pay off. Casualties
have declined steeply, from a high of al-
most 1,700 deaths in 2000 to just 17 last
year. That has allowed the government to
exempt some states from a controversial
law that protects soldiers from prosecutionfor human-rights offences, and prompted
the army to begin shifting resources away
from internal security.
Underpinning all this has been a series
of peace agreements with assorted rebel
groups. Ongoing talks with insurgents in
Nagaland have made significant progress,
with at least one of the state’s main guerril-
la factions agreeing to lay down arms. In
Assam some 644 fighters from various
groups recently surrendered their guns.
And in January alone Mr Modi’s govern-
ment inked two important deals. One, in
Tripura, allows for the resettlement in the
state of some 34,000 ethnic Bru refugees
from neighbouring Mizoram. This should
end a 23-year stand-off, as the destitute
Brus had rejected efforts to send them back
to areas from which they had been violent-
ly expelled.
Of bigger import is a deal signed on Jan-
uary 27th with several factions of the Na-
tional Democratic Front of Bodoland. For
Bodos, who speak a language related to Ti-
betan and Burmese and who number some
1.3m, the terms look generous. In exchange
for some 1,500 rebels laying down arms,
the Bodos will get a sweeping amnesty, an
extra $225m in government funding, more
schools, colleges and sports facilities, and
a much fuller form of autonomy within
their homeland in the western part of As-
sam, along India’s border with Bhutan.
What is more, the boundaries of Bodoland
will be redrawn, village by village, to en-
sure Bodos form a majority within it.
The deal is also good for Mr Modi. Gov-
ernment sources reckon the Bodo insur-
gency has left some 4,000 dead since 1987,
including 88 killed in a series of bomb
blasts in the state capital, Guwahati, in- The violence also rendered tens of
thousands of non-Bodos homeless as
waves of refugees fled repeated massacres
that targeted Bengali-speaking Muslim
farmers in the floodplains of the Brahma-
putra River and rival tribal groups in the
hills. Aside from putting a stop to such
mayhem, the deal will almost certainly
prompt a large vote swing among the small
but influential Bodo community towards
Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp). Its
hold in Assam has weakened in recent
months due to protests against a contro-
versial new citizenship law. With state
elections looming in 2021, the bjpis resort-
ing to “vote-bank” politics.
Of course, the Bodoland deal is clearly
not so good for non-Bodos who, despite the
insurgents’ efforts at ethnic cleansing,
constitute up to two-thirds of the popula-
tion of the Bodoland region as currently de-
fined. Naba Kumar Sarania, who repre-
sents the region in the national
parliament, told the Hindunewspaper: “We
are not against the peace process, but this
accord has ignored the interests of the oth-
er ethnic communities in the area.” 7
DELHI
A restive corner of the country is
becoming more peacefulNorth-eastern IndiaBodos and don’ts
MYANMARBHUTANBay of BengalNEPALCHINABANGLADESH
INDIABodoland
Assam
MeghalayaTripura
MizoramManipurGuwahati NagalandArunachal
Pradesh250 kmI
n the earlyhours of January 27th a char-
ismatic former veterinary student was
arrested in Peshawar. Manzoor Pashteen
was accused of conspiracy, sedition, stok-
ing ethnic hatred and attacking Pakistan’s
state and constitution. Missing from the
list was his true crime: criticising the army.
The 25-year-old is the founder of a group
called the Pushtun Protection Movement
(ptm), which has accused the security ser-
vices of persecuting ethnic Pushtuns in va-
rious ways, ranging from harassment at
checkpoints to kidnappings and extrajudi-
cial killings.
Pushtuns’ grievances have their roots in
the insurgency of the Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan (ttp)—the Pakistani arm of the
Taliban. The Pakistani army had originally
supported the Taliban’s quest for power in
neighbouring Afghanistan, and had al-
lowed its fighters to use Pushtun areas on
Pakistan’s side of the border as a haven. The
militants duly recruited and proselytised
within Pakistan, helping to spawn the ttp,
which launched a bloody terror campaign.
The army’s counteroffensive turned Push-
tun areas into a war zone. Towns and vil-
lages were flattened; hundreds of thou-
sands of people were displaced. And even
when peace returned, the army still treated
Pushtuns with suspicion.
When a young Pushtun trader was
killed by police in Karachi in suspicious
circumstances in 2018, tens of thousands
of Pushtuns began joining Mr Pashteen’s
rallies. The ptmdemanded the removal of
mines and unexploded bombs in PushtunISLAMABAD
A prominent critic of military
misconduct is hauled into courtCivil liberties in PakistanArresting the
messenger