TheEconomistFebruary 1st 2020 391F
or monthsthey said the timing was
simply wrong. Members of the Trump
administration, led by the president’s son-
in-law, Jared Kushner, worked for two
years on a plan to solve the decades-old
conflict between Israel and the Palestin-
ians, finishing last year. Then they waited
for an opportune moment to release it.
On January 28th that moment arrived.
Never mind that Israel was headed for its
third election in less than a year, with a
prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, fac-
ing trial for bribery, fraud and breach of
trust. Or that, while Donald Trump un-
veiled the plan at the White House, sena-
tors at the other end of Pennsylvania Ave-
nue listened to arguments in his
impeachment trial. Or that the Palestinians
had not spoken to America in two years.
The plan Mr Trump’s administration
presented was unexpectedly detailed, with
more than 50 pages of proposals and maps.
But as a blueprint for a two-state solution it
was dead on arrival. It would not give the
Palestinians a sovereign state immediate-
ly; that might come only later, after they
built a government that satisfied both Is-rael and America. They would retain only
about 75% of the West Bank, divided into
three cantons linked by highways; a tunnel
would connect it to Gaza, and to two re-
mote plots of land in the western Negev
desert swapped in exchange for Israeli
settlements, which would remain in place
(see map on next page).This land is your land
Israel would keep control of the Jordan val-
ley and most of Jerusalem. The Palestinian
capital would be established in a few grim
neighbourhoods, such as Abu Dis and
Shuafat, that sit on the other side of a hulk-
ing concrete separation barrier. No Pales-
tinian refugees would be allowed to return
to Israel, only to Palestine or unnamed
Muslim countries that would accept up to
50,000 each. Israel would commit not to
build new settlements in the land allocated
for a future Palestine for four years; in re-
turn, though, it received an implicit Ameri-
can recognition of its claims to the rest of
the West Bank. Mr Netanyahu declared that
Mr Trump was “puncturing this big lie”
that Jewish settlements in the West Bankwere illegal. His cabinet may begin voting
in early February to annex some of the
American-allocated land.
The Palestinians rejected the proposal
outright. It will end up “in the dustbin of
history”, says the president, Mahmoud Ab-
bas. His reaction should be no surprise.
There is much to criticise about the decrep-
it Mr Abbas, now in the 16th year of what
was meant to be a four-year term. But no
Palestinian leader could accept a deal that
in effect cedes Jerusalem and relegates his
people to further statelessness. Far from a
good-faith effort to solve the conflict, Mr
Trump’s plan was a sop to hawkish ideo-
logues in Jerusalem and Washington.
Perhaps it was never meant to be more.
On March 2nd Israelis will go to the polls
again. The previous two elections, in April
and September, left Mr Netanyahu without
a majority for his coalition of right-wing
and religious parties. By presenting the
plan now, so close to the vote, Mr Netanya-
hu’s American backers hope it will domi-
nate the campaign and energise his Likud
base. He seems to need the help: polls so far
show a slow but continuing erosion of his
support. Hours before the plan was un-
veiled, Israel’s attorney-general filed for-
mal charges against the prime minister in a
Jerusalem court.
Over the next five weeks Mr Netanyahu
will use the plan as his main platform (and
a welcome distraction from his legal trou-
ble). His allies are pushing for a swift vote
on annexing parts of the West Bank. “What
is postponed until after the election willDonald Trump’s peace planThe sound of one hand shaking
BEIRUT AND JERUSALEM
The president’s proposal may not bring peace, but it could still have a lasting
effect on the conflictMiddle East & Africa
40 TheclerictestingIraq
41 HealthcareinUganda
42 Locusts invade east AfricaAlso in this section