44 Europe The EconomistFebruary 1st 2020
2 for its moderation, Mr Salvini mounted his
usual, xenophobic campaign. Stunts such
as having video cameras record him asking
a Tunisian immigrant over the intercom of
his apartment block if he was a drug-ped-
dler grabbed headlines, but not apparently
very many hearts and minds in tolerant
Emilia-Romagna.
In another regional ballot in the south-
ern region of Calabria the right stormed to
victory. But that was scant consolation for
Mr Salvini, since the new governor is from
Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, which
nowadays represents a less populist and
Eurosceptic form of conservatism than the
League’s. Calabria is anyhow special, a re-
gion in which political choices are heavily
conditioned by the pervasive influence of
its mafia, the ’Ndrangheta.
Mr Salvini’s air of invincibility dissipat-
ed last summer. But now his headstrong
approach is being openly mocked. Elsa For-
nero, a minister in Mario Monti’s techno-
cratic government of 2011-13, and author of
a labour-market reform Mr Salvini wanted
to scrap, asked mischievously if he was
foolish, or just pretending to be.
The League leader’s chances of return-
ing to power nevertheless remain solid.
Both the latest elections were disastrous
for the Five Star Movement (m 5 s), notional-
ly the senior partner in Mr Conte’s second
government, which also includes the pd.
The m 5 shas almost a third of the seats in
parliament and the power to decide on leg-
islation. Yet its candidates scraped 7% in
Calabria and a pitiful 3% in Emilia-Roma-
gna. They were scarcely helped by the res-
ignation four days before polling of the
movement’s leader, Luigi Di Maio, largely
in response to its dismal showing in earlier
ballots and the disarray that had created.
The m5s was set up to challenge the es-
tablished parties, resists being called a
party itself and claims to transcend the di-
vision between right and left. Inevitably, it
has found itself ill at ease in power, and all
the more so now it is in coalition with the
mainstream pd. Since the general election
in March 2018, 24 of the m 5 s’s 331 lawmak-
ers have deserted it in parliament.
What happens now is unclear. Mr Zin-
garetti proposed that the Five Stars formal-
ly join the pdin an electoral alliance that al-
ready includes other, smaller groups. But
his offer was implicitly rejected by the
m 5 s’s stopgap leader, Vito Crimi. The
movement is to hold a congress in March to
decide whether to take a new direction.
That sets a leisurely timetable given the
pace at which the m 5 sis disintegrating. The
governing coalition is safe in the lower
house where it has a majority of 24. But in
the Senate, the Five Star defections have al-
ready left it two seats short of a majority
and dependent on the support of assorted
regionalists and independents.
The pdis more compact. But that islargelybecauseithaslostalmost 40 ofits
parliamentarianstoItaliaViva,a groupset
uplastyearbyaformerprimeminister,
MatteoRenzi.ItaliaVivaisnotyeta party
andremainsinthegovernment’sorbit.But
MrRenzi,whohasbeenwooingthemore
moderatewingofForzaItalia,remainsa
wildcard.Againstthisbackground,MrSal-
vini’sbestcoursemaybetosittightanddo
onlyasmuchasnecessary.Butit isonethe
League’s hyperactive, publicity-hungry
leaderwillfindhardtofollow. 7I
n theory viktor orban, who has ruled
Hungary with a rod of iron since 2010,
ought to be running scared. In October he
suffered the humiliation of losing control
of the capital, Budapest, as well as ten of
the 23 other county-level cities in the coun-
try. That happened because Hungary’s pe-
rennially fractured opposition for once
managed to unite, holding a primary elec-
tion in Budapest to decide on a single con-
tender and elsewhere forming pacts to
achieve the same goal.
Now plans are afoot to pull off the same
trick at parliamentary elections that are
due in 2022. If that happens, Mr Orban’s
ruling party, Fidesz, could lose its current
huge majority. Mr Orban is already sound-
ing chastened: his new year’s message was
largely about mundane issues like educa-
tion and health, a far cry from his usual
ranting about enemies within and without.
Still, those plans for 2022 involve a very
big “if”. Agreeing on a few mayoral candi-
dates is one thing: doing the same for each
of the country’s 106 single-member con-
stituencies, as well as drawing up a jointparty list for the 93 proportionally elected
mps, is a lot harder. If the dozen or so oppo-
sition parties run separate lists, quirks that
favour big parties in the electoral system
Mr Orban rammed through in 2012 will
continue to hammer them. Hardest of all,
of course, will be to choose a candidate to
be prime minister.
Who might it be? One obvious pos-
sibility is Gergely Karacsony, the newly en-
sconced mayor of Budapest. Looking every
bit the university lecturer he used to be,
dressed down in jeans, jacket and open-
neck shirt, the 44-year-old Mr Karacsony
has a platform to campaign from. But Mr
Orban is already tying him in knots, link-
ing money for the city to the construction
of a new stadium for the World Athletics
Championships in 2023, which the mayor
said on the campaign trail that he did not
want to build. Besides, Mr Karacsony in-
sists that he doesn’t want the job, and
would rather complete his term. His Dia-
logue party is tiny outside the capital.
Some instead look for a return of a for-
mer prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany,
who leads the largest opposition party,
Democratic Coalition. Largest, though, is a
relative term. In recent polls it struggles to
get far into double figures, while Fidesz
manages around 50% in most polls. Mr Gy-
urcsany’s chaotic time as prime minister is
not remembered fondly by most Hungar-
ians, and even he admits that he is “a very
polarising person, very much loved, and
very much hated”. Instead, he says, “we
need an integrator.” He offers his wife,
Clara Dobrev, as a possible prime minister.
She is currently a vice-president of the
European Parliament, having scored a re-
markable success at the head of the Demo-
cratic Coalition’s list in last year’s Euro-
election. Mr Orban refers to her, incorrect-
ly, as “Mrs Gyurcsany”. She, too, may be
reluctant to put herself forward.
The woman to watch is less well known.
Anna Donath is just 32, and is also an mep,
in her case for Hungary’s most interesting
new party, with the pleonastic moniker
Momentum Movement. Momentum was
the big surprise in the European election;
founded only in 2017, it won just under 10%
of the vote. Insiders, however, worry that
she may not want to run, either.
The real problem is that Mr Orban does
not really look beatable in 2022. He has
shrugged off his difficulties with the rest of
the euover Hungary’s erosion of the rule of
law (a task made easier because Poland is
now behaving worse). The economy is
booming; it grew by around 5% last year.
Corruption ought to be his Achilles’ heel.
Last week Transparency International, a
watchdog, rated Hungary the second-most
corrupt country in the eu, beaten only by
Bulgaria. “But,” sniffs one diplomat, “as
long as incomes are going up, Hungarians
don’t seem to care.” 7BUDAPEST
Taking on the prime minister is no
easy matterHungaryIn search of a David
Goliath and the Davids
Hungary, % polled, self-declared definite voters
January 2020Source: Zavecz ResearchOthersLMPSocialist partyJobbikMomentumDemocratic
CoalitionFidesz50403020100