The EconomistFebruary 1st 2020 Europe 47B
ritain wasan awkward member of the eu. It joined late, com-
plained lots and has now become the only country ever to leave.
Yet beneath the cantankerous caricature, Britain played a useful
role. It championed a liberal vision of the euand was a bulwark
against dirigisme. British diplomats gummed up projects of which
they were sceptical, such as a common defence policy, and acceler-
ated those which they supported, such as the single market. Con-
trary to its self-image, Britain rarely stood alone in the eu. Britain
was the noisiest advocate of policies that are commonly (but qui-
etly) held across many member-states. Even with the Brits outside
the bloc, those views will still be there. But the messengers will
change. Who will they be? Welcome to the Brit awards, where your
columnist will name the New Brits.
Sorting through the contenders is no easy job. There are so
many. Take the eu’s budget negotiations, which will come to a
head this year. Britain was far from alone in its determination to
curb euspending. Rebates, whereby some countries receive back a
chunk of what they put in, loom largest in British Eurosceptic lore,
but other countries have secured them, too. A proposal in 2018 to
do away with the cash carousel led to howls in Dutch, German,
Swedish and Danish. Britain had exactly the same policy goals as
other net contributor countries; it just had the loudest voice. Since
then, Austria, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands have teamed
up to turn up the volume. This skinflint foursome proudly refer to
themselves as the Frugal Four. Any one of them could take the New
Brit award for best Brussels belt-tightener.
Discomfort about the idea of the euas a military power goes
well beyond London. Germany does not want anyone to think it is
throwing its weight around. On many issues, it prefers to remain
in the back seat; when it comes to defence, it climbs into the boot.
Any proposal that undercuts nato’s role as Europe’s defender
makes German diplomats sweat; never mind their peers in the Bal-
tic states, for whom natois the only thing that keeps Russian
tanks at bay. Poland is even touchier. It has greeted attempts to
forge a more European defence strategy by embedding itself ever
deeper into America’s military nexus, slyly suggesting that a garri-
son on Polish soil could be called “Fort Trump”. Poland easily wins
the New Brit award for defending the status quo on defence.Beyond a few holdouts in the European Parliament, European
federalism, the bête noireof British Eurosceptics from the moment
Britain joined, has died a quiet death. euwallahs may busy them-
selves with plans for a grand-sounding conference on the future of
Europe later this year. But it will be a far cry from the constitutional
convention of 2001-3, at which former French presidents and other
grandees cooked up a European constitution (which was then
rudely rejected by French and Dutch voters). Any suggestion of a
similar effort this time round makes diplomats choke. Referen-
dums, they have noticed, can be disruptive. The New Brit award for
dreading federalism goes to everyone.
Liberal member-states have already clubbed together in the
face of a more state-centric approach to the economy advocated
most prominently by France. Dubbing themselves the New Hanse-
atic League, ministers from the Baltics, the Nordics, Ireland and
the Netherlands now meet regularly to stave off statism (the Ger-
mans occasionally show up, too). Brexit has shaken the Dutch out
of their political dysmorphia, in which the euro zone’s fifth-big-
gest economy tended to behave as if it were the size of Malta. As the
de facto leader of the new league, the Netherlands wins the New
Brit award for defending free markets from the French.
A Utopian fantasy still exists in some quarters that an eu with-
out Britain will be more coherent. As the largest country outside
the euro and the Schengen passport-free travel zone, Britain did
stick out. But the eu will hardly be one-size-fits-all, even with the
biggest constitutional kink ironed out. Denmark has opt-outs
from the euro and justice and home-affairs policies. Ireland is not
a member of the passport-free Schengen zone and has a common
law legal system, unlike the civil law in the rest of the bloc. Special
treatment abounds even when not written into law. Iron rules on
fiscal discipline seem curiously flexible whenever France is in-
volved. Visegrad countries (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the
Czech Republic) created their own opt-outs on migration policy by
simply ignoring laws. Technically all countries bar Denmark are
obliged to join the euro. Yet Sweden seems in no rush. Poland is
five years from joining the common currency—and always will be,
goes the saying. The euwill remain a constitutional camel rather
than a thoroughbred even without Britain.And the big winner is...
The fact that the Brit awards attract so many entries suggests that
Britain was not such an odd man out. Once Britain has left, the eu
will still have a rain-sodden, low-tax, English-speaking island in
the north-west: Ireland. It will still host a former imperial power
with a tendency to write geopolitical cheques it cannot honour:
France. Likewise, anyone who thinks Britain was the only country
with a morbid determination to bring up the second world war
should glance at Polish politics. Perhaps Britain was a normal eu
country after all.
Still, there can only be one overall winner. The Netherlands
would be an obvious choice, given the similar policies of the Brit-
ish and Dutch governments. But the Dutch sit happily in the euro
zone, as the Brits never would. Poland, like Britain, is outside the
euro and recoils from European defence integration. Britain, how-
ever, was generally a constructive partner in the eu, which cannot
be said of the current Polish government. This leaves one candi-
date. Liberal on trade, yet miserly when it comes to the eu’s budget,
this country also enjoys opt-outs on a Britannic scale. Congratula-
tions, Denmark! It is a long time since Danes ruled half of England,
but the two nations have much in common. 7Charlemagne The Brit awards
Meet the new Brits, more numerous than the old ones