The Economist - USA (2020-02-01)

(Antfer) #1
Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units
% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change
latest quarter* 2019† latest 2019† % % of GDP, 2019† % of GDP, 2019† latest,% year ago, bp Jan 29th on year ago
United States 2.1 Q3 2.1 2.3 2.3 Dec 1.8 3.5 Dec -2.4 -4.6 1.6 -112 -
China 6.0 Q4 6.1 6.1 4.5 Dec 2.9 3.6 Q4§ 1.5 -4.3 2.8 §§ -21.0 6.93 -2.9
Japan 1.7 Q3 1.8 0.8 0.8 Dec 0.4 2.2 Nov 3.2 -3.0 nil -8.0 109 0.1
Britain 1.1 Q3 1.7 1.3 1.3 Dec 1.8 3.8 Oct†† -4.3 -1.8 0.6 -79.0 0.77 -1.3
Canada 1.7 Q3 1.3 1.7 2.2 Dec 2.0 5.6 Dec -2.1 -1.0 1.3 -63.0 1.32 0.8
Euro area 1.2 Q3 1.1 1.2 1.3 Dec 1.2 7.5 Nov 3.2 -0.9 -0.4 -57.0 0.91 -3.3
Austria 1.5 Q3 -0.7 1.6 1.7 Dec 1.4 4.2 Nov 1.6 0.2 -0.2 -61.0 0.91 -3.3
Belgium 1.6 Q3 1.7 1.3 0.8 Dec 1.3 5.2 Nov -0.1 -1.3 -0.1 -82.0 0.91 -3.3
France 1.4 Q3 1.1 1.3 1.5 Dec 1.3 8.4 Nov -0.9 -3.2 -0.1 -73.0 0.91 -3.3
Germany 0.5 Q3 0.3 0.6 1.5 Dec 1.3 3.1 Nov 7.3 1.0 -0.4 -57.0 0.91 -3.3
Greece 2.7 Q3 2.3 2.2 0.8 Dec 0.5 16.6 Oct -2.3 0.6 1.2 -279 0.91 -3.3
Italy 0.3 Q3 0.2 0.2 0.5 Dec 0.7 9.7 Nov 2.9 -2.2 1.0 -168 0.91 -3.3
Netherlands 1.9 Q3 1.8 1.8 2.7 Dec 2.7 4.1 Dec 9.2 0.6 -0.3 -57.0 0.91 -3.3
Spain 1.9 Q3 1.6 2.1 0.8 Dec 0.8 14.1 Nov 1.0 -2.3 0.3 -94.0 0.91 -3.3
Czech Republic 3.4 Q3 1.6 2.6 3.2 Dec 2.9 2.2 Nov‡ 0.7 0.2 1.6 -24.0 22.9 -1.6
Denmark 2.3 Q3 1.5 2.1 0.8 Dec 0.8 3.7 Nov 8.3 1.5 -0.4 -72.0 6.79 -3.7
Norway 1.3 Q3 0.1 1.0 1.4 Dec 2.2 4.0 Nov‡‡ 5.4 6.5 1.3 -47.0 9.17 -7.2
Poland 4.2 Q3 5.3 4.2 3.4 Dec 2.3 5.2 Dec§ 0.5 -1.2 2.2 -60.0 3.89 -3.3
Russia 1.7 Q3 na 1.2 3.0 Dec 4.5 4.6 Dec§ 4.8 1.8 6.3 -209 62.7 5.4
Sweden 1.7 Q3 1.1 1.2 1.8 Dec 1.8 6.0 Dec§ 3.4 0.4 nil -40.0 9.62 -5.6
Switzerland 1.1 Q3 1.6 0.8 0.2 Dec 0.4 2.3 Dec 10.2 0.5 -0.7 -52.0 0.98 2.0
Turkey 0.9 Q3 na 0.1 11.8 Dec 15.2 13.4 Oct§ 0.2 -3.0 9.9 -528 5.96 -10.9
Australia 1.7 Q3 1.8 1.7 1.8 Q4 1.6 5.1 Dec 0.3 0.1 1.0 -121 1.48 -5.4
Hong Kong -2.9 Q3 -12.1 -0.6 2.9 Dec 3.0 3.3 Dec‡‡ 4.8 -0.1 1.5 -43.0 7.77 1.0
India 4.5 Q3 4.5 4.9 7.4 Dec 3.6 7.6 Dec -1.8 -3.9 6.6 -96.0 71.3 -0.2
Indonesia 5.0 Q3 na 5.1 2.7 Dec 3.0 5.3 Q3§ -2.3 -2.0 6.6 -148 13,628 3.4
Malaysia 4.4 Q3 na 4.5 1.0 Dec 0.8 3.2 Nov§ 3.1 -3.5 3.2 -92.0 4.08 0.7
Pakistan 3.3 2019** na 3.3 12.6 Dec 9.4 5.8 2018 -2.6 -8.9 11.1 ††† -221 155 -10.3
Philippines 6.4 Q4 9.1 5.7 2.5 Dec 2.4 4.5 Q4§ -0.3 -3.1 4.6 -184 50.8 3.2
Singapore 0.8 Q4 0.1 0.7 0.8 Dec 0.5 2.3 Q4 17.4 -0.5 1.6 -58.0 1.36 -0.7
South Korea 2.2 Q4 4.7 1.8 0.7 Dec 0.4 3.4 Dec§ 3.0 0.8 1.6 -44.0 1,177 -5.2
Taiwan 3.4 Q4 7.0 2.6 1.1 Dec 0.5 3.7 Dec 11.9 -0.9 0.6 -25.0 30.0 2.8
Thailand 2.4 Q3 0.4 2.4 0.9 Dec 0.7 1.1 Nov§ 6.8 -2.8 1.3 -91.0 31.0 1.7
Argentina -1.7 Q3 3.8 -2.7 53.8 Dec‡ 53.7 9.7 Q3§ -1.2 -4.0 na -464 60.2 -38.3
Brazil 1.2 Q3 2.5 1.2 4.3 Dec 3.7 11.2 Nov§‡‡ -2.3 -5.7 4.3 -282 4.22 -11.6
Chile 3.3 Q3 3.0 1.3 3.0 Dec 2.3 6.9 Nov§‡‡ -3.0 -1.8 3.3 -90.0 791 -15.5
Colombia 3.3 Q3 2.3 3.1 3.8 Dec 3.5 9.3 Nov§ -4.5 -2.5 5.7 -89.0 3,401 -7.0
Mexico -0.3 Q3 0.1 nil 2.8 Dec 3.6 3.1 Dec -0.8 -2.7 6.7 -178 18.7 1.8
Peru 3.0 Q3 2.9 2.3 1.9 Dec 2.1 5.4 Dec§ -1.9 -1.7 4.1 -152 3.34 0.6
Egypt 5.7 Q3 na 5.6 7.0 Dec 8.1 7.8 Q3§ -0.2 -7.1 na nil 15.8 11.5
Israel 4.2 Q3 4.1 3.4 0.6 Dec 0.9 3.9 Nov 2.4 -3.9 0.9 -124 3.45 6.7
Saudi Arabia 2.4 2018 na 0.4 0.3 Dec -1.2 5.5 Q3 4.8 -6.0 na nil 3.75 nil
South Africa 0.1 Q3 -0.6 0.4 4.0 Dec 4.2 29.1 Q3§ -3.8 -5.9 9.0 24.0 14.6 -6.8
Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving
average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

76 The EconomistFebruary 1st 2020


Commodities
TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on
2015=100 Jan 21st Jan 28th* month year
DollarIndex
AllItems 117.0 113.5 -1.8 6.0
Food 101.9 100.1 -2.3 7.8
Industrials
All 131.1 126.0 -1.5 4.7
Non-foodagriculturals 104.3 101.8 -1.6 -6.7
Metals 139.1 133.2 -1.5 7.7
SterlingIndex
Allitems 136.7 133.4 0.2 7.3
EuroIndex
Allitems 116.9 114.4 0.2 10.0
Gold
$ peroz 1,557.8 1,570.9 3.3 19.9
Brent
$ perbarrel 64.7 60.0 -9.6 -2.3
Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;
Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool
Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets
% change on: % change on:
Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st
In local currency Jan 29th week 2018 Jan 29th week 2018
United States S&P 500 3,273.4 -1.5 30.6
United States NAScomp 9,275.2 -1.2 39.8
China Shanghai Comp 2,976.5 -2.8 19.4
China Shenzhen Comp 1,756.8 -3.5 38.6
Japan Nikkei 225 23,379.4 -2.7 16.8
Japan Topix 1,700.0 -2.5 13.8
Britain FTSE 100 7,483.6 -1.2 11.2
Canada S&P TSX 17,511.8 -0.5 22.3
Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,736.4 -0.9 24.5
France CAC 40 5,954.9 -0.9 25.9
Germany DAX* 13,345.0 -1.3 26.4
Italy FTSE/MIB 24,164.7 1.9 31.9
Netherlands AEX 605.2 -1.0 24.1
Spain IBEX 35 9,546.7 -0.3 11.8
Poland WIG 57,351.2 -1.8 -0.6
Russia RTS, $ terms 1,570.7 -2.6 47.3
Switzerland SMI 10,859.9 -0.3 28.8
Tu r ke y BIST 119,689.4 -2.5 31.1
Australia All Ord. 7,135.9 -1.6 25.0
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27,160.6 -4.2 5.1
India BSE 41,198.7 0.2 14.2
Indonesia IDX 6,113.0 -1.9 -1.3
Malaysia KLSE 1,550.5 -1.7 -8.3

Pakistan KSE 41,898.7 -1.6 13.0
Singapore STI 3,182.6 -2.2 3.7
South Korea KOSPI 2,185.3 -3.6 7.1
Taiwan TWI 12,118.7 nil 24.6
Thailand SET 1,524.6 -3.2 -2.5
Argentina MERV 40,341.4 -4.0 33.2
Brazil BVSP 115,384.8 -2.5 31.3
Mexico IPC 45,132.6 -1.0 8.4
Egypt EGX 30 13,762.8 0.1 5.6
Israel TA-125 1,643.3 -2.3 23.3
Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,185.5 -2.9 4.6
South Africa JSE AS 56,370.7 -2.7 6.9
World, dev'd MSCI 2,373.5 -1.5 26.0
Emerging markets MSCI 1,097.5 -3.2 13.6

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries
Dec 31st
Basis points latest 2018
Investment grade 144 190
High-yield 475 571
Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed
Income Research. *Total return index.

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