TheEconomistDecember 21st 2019 511S
tephen biegunsounded like a jilted
spouse pleading with an errant partner.
North Korea’s recent statements about its
relationship with America were “so hostile
and negative and so unnecessary”, Ameri-
ca’s special envoy lamented in South Korea
on December 16th. Mr Biegun was on a last-
ditch mission to revive stalled disarm-
ament talks with North Korea, in which the
North has said it is no longer interested.
Towards the end of his remarks, Mr Biegun
directly addressed his North Korean coun-
terparts: “We are here. You know how to
reach us.”
North Korea responded to the envoy’s
entreaties with icy silence. This leaves the
Korean peninsula in a precarious position
as the year draws to a close. Negotiations
have faltered ever since a summit between
Donald Trump, America’s president, and
Kim Jong Un, the North’s dictator, col-
lapsed in February over the two sides’ irrec-
oncilable expectations. America says
North Korea must begin disarming before
sanctions can be lifted or America’s mili-tary footprint in South Korea scaled back in
any significant way. North Korea insists it
has already taken notable steps towards
dismantling its nuclear-weapons and
long-range missile programmes, for which
it demands some recompense before it will
make any further concessions.
The stalemate could give way to escala-
tion. Though America says it wants to keep
talking, the North seems to have decided
that it has nothing more to gain from the
talks. Following the failure of the summit,
which many observers believe Mr Kim
found deeply humiliating, the North set a
deadline. If the Americans did not become
“more flexible” before the end of the year,its negotiators said, it would abandon
talks. In October, after a lower-level meet-
ing between the two sides ended in acrimo-
ny, North Korea reiterated the threat. It
would not return to the table without a
“complete and irreversible withdrawal” of
America’s “hostile policy”.
The tough talk has been accompanied
by a string of provocations, which have
grown more flagrant in recent weeks, along
with lots of martial symbolism. North Ko-
rea has tested new short-range missiles on
13 occasions since May. In the past month it
has conducted two engine tests at a site in
Sohae that it had showily dismantled when
negotiations first began. Analysts say the
tests are consistent with preparations for
the launch of a long-range missile, which
would end Mr Kim’s self-imposed morato-
rium on such tests, the basis of Mr Trump’s
claim in 2018 that there was “no longer a
nuclear threat from North Korea”.
Mr Kim has also taken two well-publi-
cised trips on horseback up Mount Paektu,
the mountain hailed as the birthplace of
communism in North Korea, preparing his
people for “hard times” and a “new path”
ahead. At a plenum of North Korea’s Work-
ers’ Party planned in the next few days, he
is expected to describe the path in more de-
tail. Kim In-tae of South Korea’s Institute
for National Security Strategy thinks he
may formally renounce the moratorium.
“That,” he says, “will demolish any hope of
getting assistance from America.”America and North KoreaIce and no
SEOUL
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