The Economist - USA (2019-12-21)

52 Asia The EconomistDecember 21st 2019

2 MrKimmaybewillingtoriskthat,since

theNorthdoesnotappeartobeina desper-

atesituationeconomically.Severalregions

areinthemidstofa constructionboom,

saysCheongSeong-changoftheSejongIn-

stituteinSeoul.TourismfromChinahas

growninto animportantsource of rev-

enue,bringingintensofmillionsofdollars

a yearbysomeestimates.Moreover,China

andRussiahaveputforwarda resolutionat

theunadvocatingtheliftingofsomesanc-

tions,includinga reversalofthedecision

to compel all North Koreans working

abroadtoreturnhomebyDecember22nd.

Russia,whichhostsmanysuchworkers,

claimedthemovewasaimedatencourag-

ing further talks between America and

NorthKorea.

NorthKoreamaybeimaginingthatit

can force America’s hand with further

provocations,saysBobCarlinofStanford

University.“Iftheythinkescalationputs

pressureonAmericatomakea dealthey’re

wrong. They’re just backing themselves

everfurtherintoa corner.”Thatleavesa re-

turntothehightensionsandaggressive

rhetoricthatprecededthepivottodiplo-

macyinearly 2018 asthemostlikelyout-

come.OnDecember16thMrTrumpsaid

ominouslythatAmericawould“takecare

of”anyhostilestepbyNorthKorea. 7

F

or the past 100 years, first under

communism, then under an exception-

ally vicious dictatorship, Uzbekistan’s par-

liament has been toothless, always pander-

ing to the man in charge—in Moscow or,

since independence in 1991, in Tashkent,

the Central Asian state’s capital. But as Uz-

beks go to the polls on December 22nd, Bo-

bur Bekmurodov, a candidate who has been

running a government-backed movement

to promote reform, says it is time for the

parliament to “grow teeth”. If he wins a

seat, he says, he will try to make local gov-

ernment more accountable and let civil

society breathe more freely. That is fighting

talk in a country that long trembled under

the lash of Islam Karimov, who, after serv-

ing the Kremlin loyally for many years, ty-

rannised the independent country until

his death in 2016. Since then his successor,

Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has astonished and

delighted his citizens with his enthusiasm

for reform. The question now is how far

and how fast he will dare to go.

Mr Mirziyoyev’s reforms have so far

centredontheeconomy,whichhehas set

about liberalising with gusto. The main po-

litical change to date has been to lock up far

fewer people for their opinions, although

life remains difficult for some journalists

and bloggers. Mr Bekmurodov, who is 34,

would “absolutely not” have stood for par-

liament in the old days, but sees an oppor-

tunity for change. He is not, however, a

member of an opposition party, because no

such thing yet exists in this country of 33m

people, and independents are barred from

standing. Mr Bekmurodov is on the ticket

of the Uzbekistan Liberal Democratic Party,

the outgoing parliament’s largest force and

the closest thing Uzbekistan has to a ruling

party. Mr Mirziyoyev, supposedly above the

political fray, says he supports no candi-

dates and no party.

The other four parties that are taking

part in the election espouse minor varia-

tions on the government’s themes. None of

them truly criticises the powers that be.

The People’s Democratic Party of Uzbeki-

stan, the Justice Social Democratic Party

and the National Revival Democratic Party

advocate improved social welfare for va-

rious groups. The Ecological Party backs

government plans to build a nuclear power

station. Voters on the streets of Tashkent

have little idea of what these parties really

stand for. One market trader says he will

tick the People’s Democratic Party on his

ballot paper because he likes the word

“people” in the name.

The government is depicting the elec-

tion, the first national ballot since Mr Mir-

ziyoyev won the presidency three years ago

with an implausible 89% of the vote, as Uz-

bekistan’s most vibrant and competitive

ever. That is true, but the previous, sham

elections set an extremely low bar and the

absence of any opposition parties remains

a glaring flaw. Officials insist Uzbekistan is

democratising, but in a manner more evo-

lutionary than revolutionary. It has passed

a new election law, which monitors from

the Organisation for Security and Co-oper-

ation in Europe say follows some recom-

mendations to improve the administration

of the ballot, but ignores others pertaining

to “fundamental freedoms”.

The campaign featured live television

debates which, although staid, subjected

candidates to a new level of scrutiny. Par-

ties have been wooing voters more vigor-

ously than in the past, even though their

rhetoric is “superficial and artificial”, ac-

cording to Nazima Davletova, a civic activ-

ist, and “their programmes are basically

the same.” Some have voiced timid criti-

cism of officialdom. After hospitals in his

constituency lost power 50 times in three

days, Mr Bekmurodov took to social media

to complain.

Mr Mirziyoyev enjoys popularity for

bringing change after 25 years of stagna-

tion, but recent protests over energy short-

ages reflect disillusionment with the state

of basic public services. Double-digit infla-

tion is another gripe. Commentators on so-

cial media lampooned the leader of the Lib-

eral Democratic Party after he blamed a

20% rise in meat prices this year on Uzbeks’

insatiable appetites. Mr Mirziyoyev has

loosened the screws on the press, whose

coverage of the campaign has been livelier

than before, though there are red lines:

criticising the president remains a no-no.

Dilfuza Kurolova, a human-rights law-

yer, harbours cautious optimism that the

new parliament can be more “impactful”.

Many voters are more sceptical. “The par-

ties do nothing for us,” says a health worker

dismissively. Mr Mirziyoyev has ordered

parliamentarians to spend more time with

their constituents to get a better sense of

their concerns, and claims to desire a more

robust debate in parliament. He has beefed

up its limited powers to call ministers to

account, although the mood remains more

consensual than confrontational.

“We are not an enemy to the govern-

ment,” says Eldor Tulyakov, an mpin the

outgoing parliament from the National Re-

vival Party, but “we do criticise.” He be-

lieves the greater freedom of expression

Uzbeks enjoy under Mr Mirziyoyev will

eventually lead to the emergence of a

proper political opposition. Even the opti-

mistic Ms Kurolova has her doubts about

that. Although there are technically no le-

gal impediments, she says, “we don’t have

much freedom to create political parties.”

For all Mr Mirziyoyev’s talk of trans-

forming parliament into a “true school of

democracy”, there is little proof he is will-

ing to tolerate genuine opposition. Then

again, says Mr Bekmurodov, a great deal

has changed in the president’s three years

in power: “I’ve learned not to rule anything

out, because a great deal that seemed im-

possible to us is now reality.” 7

TASHKENT

But that’s not an especially high bar

Elections in Uzbekistan

The most

democratic ever

Flying the flag for diluted autocracy