economy. Someentities—industrial sectors, labourmarkets—
couldbeoptimisedseparately,allowingseparateplanningpro-
blemstobesolvedinparallel.“We’renevergoingtoplantheecon-
omyliketheSoviets,witha giantmatrixwitheverygoodinit,”ex-
plainsMrNaidu,“butwecouldgetit rightonaverage.”
Butcouldyouplana movingtarget?Iftheroleofaiwithinthe
economyincreases,sowilltheeconomy’scomplexity.AsAlexTa-
barrok,aneconomistatGeorgeMasonUniversity,putsit:“The
problemofperfectlyorganisinganeconomydoesnotbecomeeas-
ierwithgreatercomputingpowerpreciselybecausegreatercom-
putingpoweralsomakestheeconomymorecomplex.”
AndthereistheproblemofGoodhart’sLaw,namedforCharles
Goodhart,aneconomist:dataknowntobeusedforplanningpur-
posesceasetobegoodmeasuresofthewaytheworldis.YuYong-
ding,a Chineseeconomist,sawthisinactionduringtheGreat
LeapForward.ChairmanMaodecreedthatChinashouldproduce
moresteel:asa result,muchofthecountry’sexistingstocksofthe
metalweremelteddowninbackyardfurnaceswhichproduced
poorqualitypigiron.MrYuisnowanadvisertoChina’sNational
DevelopmentandReformCommission,whichisinchargeofde-
velopingthecountry’sfive-yearplans,a reasonablybroad-brush
endeavourhesupports.Heisutterlyscepticalaboutmicroeco-
nomicplanning.“IfyouarenotGod,youcannotforeseeevery-
thing,”hesayswitha smile.Hayekcouldnothaveputit better.4.A screenpressedupagainsta humanfaceforever
China’sleadershipmaybeasconvincedasMrYuthatfine-grained
economicprediction,andthuscontrol,remainimpossible.But
whenit comestousingcomputersforsocialandpoliticalcontrolit
seems,predictably,muchmorekeen.
A lotofthisisrelativelystraightforwardrepression,seeninits
mostextremeforminXinjiang,a regioninwesternChinawhere
mostofthecitizensareUighurs,a Muslimminority.Incities,cam-
erasareeverywhere,asarecheckpointswhereresidentsmust
showidcardsandallowtheirfacestobescanned.Theyarealsore-
quiredtoinstalla smartphoneappthatallowspolicetotrackthem
andaccesstheirdata.Thisisnotanalternativetotheinternmentcampsinwhichhundredsofthousandsof
Uighursareconfined.Itisanextensionof
them.
Therealsoaresofter,butperhapsmore
farreaching,applicationsofinformation
technology.Topolicepublicconversation,
as China’s censorsare tasked to do all
acrossthecountry,meanslisteningtoit.
Whatpeopletalkaboutonsocialmedia
showswhattheycare about.Itthusde-
scribes what the state needs to do to
achieve “output legitimacy”. Active ma-
nipulationofthepublicconversationpro-
videsanotheravenueforcontrol.Sodoes
the“socialcreditsystem”,whichismeant
tousea rangeofdatatogivecitizensa trust-
worthinessscore,thoughitisstilla frag-
mentaryworkinprogress,atbest.
For acatastrophising imagination, it
mayseemonlya fewstepsfromheretothe
Borg.Add a fewbiological implants,ai
whichhearseverythinganddrawsconclu-
sionsaboutpotentialinstabilitiesandan
abilitytoprovideforthebasicneedsofall,
andyouhaveyourcyberneticants’nest.
Butthatisquitea stretch.Ultra-wireddic-
tatorswouldrunintosimilarproblemsas
economicplanners.Eveninrelativelysmallcountries
itisexceedinglydifficult,notleastbecauseofsocial
media,topredictwhatwilldrivechangewhere.Hong
Kongisanexcellentworkedexample.Andsocialengi-
neeringviaairisksgoingbadlywrong,asMrShazili’s
sometimeco-authorMrFarrellpointsoutina recent
blogpost.aisystemsmakemistakesanddevelopbias-
es.Ifthepeopletheaiisbeingusedonsufferasa re-
sult,thatisbadforthem;butit mightbeevenworsefor
a governmentrelyingontheai’s insightsforcontrol.
“Machinelearning...mayturnouttobea disasterfor
authoritarianism”,writesMrFarrell.Beyondaithoritarianism
Whenit comestoerodinganexistingdemocracy,rath-
erthanshoringupa dictatorship, therearesomewhat
similartechnologiesonoffer.Somearedestructive.
Socialmedia,drivenasitscommercialinterestsareby
thedesireto“goviral”,offerswaystoinjecttheequiv-
alentofcomputervirusesintothepublic’spoliticalin-
formation processing,degrading and distorting its
outputthroughmisinformation,emotionalinconti-
nenceandcognitivesabotage.
Somearelessobviouslyabhorrent.Neitherscoring
forsomesortofsocialcreditnorsophisticatedsurveil-
lancetoolsarethesolepreserveofauthoritarianstates.
Online,peoplehappilyallowfirmstofollowtheirev-
erymove—wheretheyare,whattheybuy,whatthey
likeandevenwhattheythink—andbuildupprofilesof
themscoredforanynumberofcharacteristics.State
surveillancecangelwiththeself-administeredform.
More than 400 American police departmentshave
agreementswithAmazonthatallowthemtoaccessthe
camerasassociatedwiththecompany’svideo-doorbell
service,Ring.The“surveillance-basedeconomicor-
der”,asShoshanaZuboffofHarvardBusinessSchool
callsit,isnotidenticaltowhatisgrowinginChina.But
thetwosystemshaveclearsimilarities.
AvisittotheheartofoneofEarth’sgreatestgreenThe EconomistDecember 21st 2019 A planned world 612
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