The Economist - USA (2019-12-21)

74 TheEconomistDecember 21st 2019

1

W

alking ontoa football pitch hardly

seems an act of high diplomacy. But

two and a half years into the embargo of Qa-

tar by three Gulf neighbours—Bahrain,

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

(uae)—it may count as progress. The three

had planned to boycott the annual Gulf

Cup because it was being held in Doha, the

capital of Qatar. In November, though, they

changed their minds, and on December

2nd the Emiratis took the field against the

Qataris. The Emiratis lost 4-2. Adding in-

sult to injury, the defeat came on their na-

tional day, which marks the unification of

several emirates into the uae. Still, the

match ended amicably enough, a far cry

from an Asian Cup tilt in January, when the

victorious Qatari squad was pelted with

shoes and bottles by the crowd in Abu

Dhabi, the capital of the uae.

The embargo, imposed in June 2017, has

divided families, diverted planes and

caused a deep rift in the six-member Gulf

Co-operation Council (gcc). Qatar refuses

to comply with a list of demands from the

Saudi-led camp, such as cutting ties with

Islamist groups and closing Al Jazeera, a

satellite news channel. But there are grow-

ing signs that some of the blockading states

want to end the feud anyway. Apart from

the football diplomacy, Saudi Arabia and

Qatar have held quiet talks about a resolu-

tion. On December 10th Qatar’s prime min-

ister flew to Saudi Arabia for a gccsummit,

the emirate’s highest-level representation

in two years. No one expected it to produce

a deal, but Qatar’s foreign minister said it

broke a long “stalemate”.

To understand why, look across the Gulf

to another intractable conflict, the one be-

tween Iran and its Arab neighbours. Their

long cold war has escalated into overt hos-

tilities. President Donald Trump’s eco-

nomic sanctions, meant to bludgeon Iran

into softening its regional policies, have

instead made it more belligerent. The feud

with Qatar seems more and more a need-

less distraction, one that has forced the Qa-

taris to deepen their political and eco-

nomic ties with Iran. There is no newfound

love between Qatar and its Gulf neigh-

bours, but there is a newfound realism.

A turning-point came on September

14th, when missiles rained down on two oil

facilities in Saudi Arabia’s eastern desert.

Half of the country’s oil output—5% of the

world’s total—was briefly knocked offline.

America and Saudi Arabia saw Iran’s hand

behind the attack (though a United Nations

panel said in December that it found no de-

finitive link). Yet it passed without an overt

American response.

In public, Saudi officials insist they still

trust their longtime friend. “We don’t see

this concept of America as receding. Quite

the contrary,” says Adel al-Jubeir, the min-

ister of state for foreign affairs. America

did deploy an additional 3,000 troops to

Saudi Arabia after the attack. Whether Mr

Trump would use them to defend the king-

dom is another matter. Privately, Saudi of-

ficials fret that the American security um-

brella seems full of holes. Worried that

further attacks might spoil the initial pub-

Diplomacy in the Gulf

Making up is hard to do

BEIRUT

But with the threat of Iran looming, the Gulf states are reconsidering their

years-long feud with Qatar

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