december 23, 2019–january 5, 2020 | new york 51obsessive personality—he trained to be an opera singer in his
20s—and his focus was voter persuasion.
Like Brock, he was fixated on Breitbart and its ultrarich patron,
Robert Mercer. But hyperpartisan content wasn’t likely to win politi-
cal converts. To change minds in Alabama, he’d have to obscure his
partisan intentions. Goldstein called his operation Tovo Labs, which
sounded techie and official, but it was basically just him, during off
hours, working from his laptop. The plan: He would create targeted
digital ads aimed at three cohorts of Alabama voters—Democrats,
moderate Republicans, and conservative Republicans—to swing
votes in Jones’s direction. Many of the ads themselves were dinky
little animated gifs and would run everywhere from Facebook to
Infowars to the Times. By design, they’d look like the kind of cheapo
stuff heavy Facebook users tend to click on.
Goldstein’s Democrats were fed ads bearing messages like
“Our Democracy Will Fail Without You” and were directed to a
website that allowed them to look up their polling places. Moder-
ate Republicans got “Don’t Be Ashamed to Vote” and “Vote for
Honor Dec 12,” leading them to testimonials from Alabama con-
servatives urging write-in votes for Luther Strange, the Establish-
ment Republican whom Moore had defeated in the primary.
Then came the conservative voters. “As far as I know,” Goldstein
says, “nobody blatantly bragged about going after the other side’s
base with a dedicated digital-ad campaign until Trump’s guy did.”
He’s referring to Brad Parscale, Trump’s 2016 digital director and
current campaign manager. “So I was like, ‘Let’s suppress the
vote.’ ” Conservatives got ads that read, “Alabama’s Great Shame”
or “Destroying Alabama’s Honor,” and they were directed to news
clips of prominent Evangelicals arguing against Moore’s candi-
dacy. (Goldstein came up with his ad copy using social psycholo-
gist Jonathan Haidt’s research on political tribalism.)
Goldstein wasn’t the only Democrat using the special election
as a petri dish. Matt Osborne, a native Alabamian and gadfly
activist, created a social-media campaign suggesting that Moore
supported alcohol prohibition to try to freak out moderate
Republicans. An Austin-based disinformation-research outfit,
however, reportedly created a “pro-Moore” Facebook page in
order to feed its followers anti-Moore content. Both efforts were
indirectly funded by Hoffman’s Investing in Us. (The Austin firm
has been linked to a “false flag” effort to sic fake Russian Twitter
bots on Moore’s campaign, but the firm’s CEO wouldn’t talk to
me and no one can really figure out if that’s true.)
What differentiated Goldstein’s efforts were his attempts to
demonstrate that he had affected the race. He picked three state-
senate districts that would see the ads and three comparable
districts that wouldn’t. He sent out his experimental group, and
from there, he measured turnout. The results were remarkable:
In each district where he ran the experiment, Democratic turn-
out was substantially higher than expected and conservative
turnout substantially lower. (In previous years, turnout had been
almost identical in the control and the treatment districts.)
There’s virtually no way the Democratic turnout spike, let alone
Jones’s victory, was Goldstein’s doing alone. His reach wasn’t wide
enough. And it’ s possible he had no effect at all. But in a race decided
by a just few more than 20,000 votes, his ads—which cost $85,000,were aimed at a sliver of the state, and ran for seven days prior to the
election—were seen over 4 million times. At a minimum, you won-
der what might have happened if he’d been able to scale up.If liberals can’t quite bring themselves to be Breitbart,
maybe there are other ways to win Facebook. (And any-
way, Breitbart’s audience has been in decline.) The biggest
buyer of Facebook ads during the 2018 midterm election
was erstwhile liberal savior Beto O’Rourke, then running
for Senate in Texas, according to a new NYU analysis. The
second-biggest buyer was an outfit nobody had heard of
called News for Democracy. Based in Colorado, it appar-
ently operated in tandem with three opaque sister LLCs. The
group ran no fewer than 48 Facebook pages targeting different
audiences: BroAmerica, Women for Civility, Melanin, Better
With Age. Many of these pages had accumulated anywhere from
5,000 to 12,000 subscribers sharing memes or news articles rel-
evant to their subject matter a couple of times a day.
The ads promoting each of these pages evinced loosely pro-
liberal messages tweaked to match the sensibility of its intended
audience. For instance, Drain the Swamp News shared memes
that painted Brett Kavanaugh as a deep-state tool. Some pages
went after sitting Republicans; others blasted more generic con-
tent in states with close Senate elections with names like Gulf State
News or That’s Just North Dakota.
The highest-spending page, at $1.2 million, was Our Flag Our
Country. One of its ads targeted mostly at women in New York
State, which earned between 10,000 and 50,000 impressions,
featured a video of a middle-aged white guy complaining into the
camera. “How do I feel when I turn on the TV on a Sunday and
see a wealthy celebrity player take a knee?,” he asked. “Frankly, it
bothers me.” But, he continued, it bothers him even more that
Trump uses the issue to divide the country. A Trump voter in 20 16,
he’d be voting Democrat in the midterms. An entirely different ad
for an entirely different page featured a younger guy in a hoodie
reciting a nearly identical script. How did he feel about football
players who took knees? Actually, he felt pretty good about it!
He’d be voting Democrat in November. It’s impossible to tell from
the ads whether the men are paid actors.
These pages were traced back to a 32-year-old ex-Vice and
Bloomberg Businessweek journalist named Dan Fletcher, who ran
a Denver creative agency called MotiveAI, which was funded by—
what else?—Hoffman’s Investing in Us. News for Democracy,
timed to the midterm elections and walking the line on fake news,
was Hoffman’s gutsiest play yet.
Fletcher’s goal wasn’t to reproduce viral clickbait with a leftward
slant, though. It was to slip liberal messaging to audiences that
didn’t necessarily trust liberals. “The question is,” says one MotiveAI
backer who wasn’t authorized to speak on the record, “Is there any-
thing that can be done to actually deliver facts to groups that oth-
erwise refuse to hear them because of the messenger?”
Facebook’s potential for subtle propaganda hasn’t totally been
lost on other Democrats. During the midterms, Ohio gubernato-
rial candidate Richard Cordray ran ads under a bland page
called Ohio Newswire. The Environmental Defense Fund didNobody on the official left seems very goodat “rapid and authentic” at the moment.PHOTOGRAPH: KAELIN DUNN / @DUNNFAMILYFUN. ON THE PREVIOUS PAGE: DIMISLAVA TODOROVA/ GETTY IMAGES.TRANSMITTED
Y ___ DD ___ AD ___ PD ___ EIC ________ COPY ___ DD ___ AD ___ PD ___ EIC2619FEA_OppositionResearch_lay [Print]_36426188.indd 51 12/18/19 4:41 PMdecember 23, 2019–january 5, 2020 | new york 51obsessivepersonality—hetrainedtobeanopera singerinhis
20s—andhisfocuswasvoterpersuasion.
LikeBrock,hewasfixatedonBreitbart anditsultrarichpatron,
RobertMercer.Buthyperpartisancontentwasn’t likelyto winpoliti-
calconverts.To change mindsinAlabama,he’d havetoobscurehis
partisanintentions.GoldsteincalledhisoperationTovoLabs,which
soundedtechieandofficial,butit wasbasicallyjust him,duringoff
hours,workingfromhislaptop.Theplan:He wouldcreate targeted
digitaladsaimedatthreecohorts ofAlabamavoters—Democrats,
moderateRepublicans,andconservativeRepublicans—toswing
votesinJones’s direction.Manyoftheadsthemselvesweredinky
littleanimatedgifs andwouldruneverywherefromFacebookto
InfowarstotheTimes.Bydesign,they’dlooklike thekindof cheapo
stuff heavyFacebookuserstendtoclickon.
Goldstein’sDemocratswerefedadsbearingmessageslike
“OurDemocracy WillFailWithoutYou”andweredirectedtoa
websitethatallowedthemtolookuptheirpollingplaces.Moder-
ateRepublicansgot“Don’t BeAshamedtoVote”and“Votefor
HonorDec12,” leadingthemtotestimonialsfromAlabamacon-
servativesurgingwrite-invotesforLutherStrange,theEstablish-
mentRepublicanwhomMoorehaddefeatedintheprimary.
Thencametheconservativevoters.“AsfarasI know,” Goldstein
says,“nobodyblatantlybraggedaboutgoingaftertheotherside’s
basewitha dedicateddigital-adcampaignuntilTrump’sguydid.”
He’s referringtoBradParscale,Trump’s 2016 digitaldirectorand
currentcampaignmanager.“SoI waslike,‘Let’ssuppressthe
vote.’” Conservativesgotadsthat read,“Alabama’sGreat Shame”
or“DestroyingAlabama’s Honor,”andthey weredirectedtonews
clipsofprominentEvangelicalsarguingagainst Moore’scandi-
dacy. (Goldsteincameupwithhisadcopyusingsocialpsycholo-
gistJonathanHaidt’sresearchonpoliticaltribalism.)
Goldsteinwasn’t theonlyDemocratusingthespecialelection
asa petridish.MattOsborne,a nativeAlabamianandgadfly
activist, createda social-mediacampaignsuggestingthat Moore
supportedalcoholprohibitiontotry tofreakoutmoderate
Republicans.AnAustin-baseddisinformation-researchoutfit,
however, reportedlycreateda “pro-Moore”Facebookpage in
ordertofeeditsfollowersanti-Moorecontent.Botheffortswere
indirectlyfundedbyHoffman’sInvestinginUs. (TheAustinfirm
hasbeenlinkedtoa “falseflag”efforttosicfake RussianTwitter
botsonMoore’s campaign,butthefirm’sCEOwouldn’t talkto
meandnoonecanreallyfigureoutif that’strue.)
WhatdifferentiatedGoldstein’seffortswerehisattemptsto
demonstratethat hehadaffectedtherace.He pickedthreestate-
senatedistrictsthat wouldseetheadsandthreecomparable
districts that wouldn’t.He sentouthisexperimentalgroup,and
fromthere,hemeasuredturnout.Theresultswereremarkable:
Ineachdistrictwhereherantheexperiment,Democraticturn-
outwassubstantiallyhigherthanexpectedandconservative
turnoutsubstantiallylower. (In previousyears,turnouthadbeen
almostidenticalinthecontrolan reatmentdistricts.)
There’s virtuallynoway theDe turnoutspike, let alone
Jones’s victory,wasGoldstein’sdoingalone.His reachwasn’t wide
enough.Andit’ s possiblehehadnoeffectat all.Butina racedecided
bya justfew morethan20,000votes,hisads—whichcost $85,000,
wereaimedat a sliverof thestate,andranforsevendayspriortothe
election—wereseenover4 milliontimes.Ata minimum,youwon-
derwhatmighthavehappenedif he’d beenabletoscaleup.If liberalscan’tquitebringthemselvestobeBreitbart,
maybethereareotherwaystowinFacebook.(Andany-
way,Breitbart’saudiencehasbeenindecline.) Thebiggest
buyerofFacebookadsduringthe 2018 midtermelection
waserstwhileliberalsaviorBetoO’Rourke, thenrunning
forSenateinTexas,accordingtoa new NYUanalysis.The
second-biggestbuyerwasanoutfit nobodyhadheardof
calledNewsforDemocracy.BasedinColorado,it appar-
entlyoperatedintandemwiththreeopaquesisterLLCs.The
grouprannofewerthan 48 Facebookpagestargetingdifferent
audiences:BroAmerica,WomenforCivility,Melanin,Better
WithAge.Manyofthesepageshadaccumulatedanywherefrom
5,000to12,000subscriberssharingmemesornewsarticlesrel-
evanttotheirsubject mattera coupleoftimesa day.
Theadspromotingeachofthesepagesevincedlooselypro-
liberalmessagestweakedtomatchthesensibility ofitsintended
audience.Forinstance,DraintheSwampNewssharedmemes
thatpaintedBrett Kavanaughasa deep-statetool.Somepages
wentaftersittingRepublicans;othersblastedmoregenericcon-
tentinstateswithcloseSenate electionswithnameslike GulfState
NewsorThat’sJustNorthDakota.
Thehighest-spendingpage, at $1.2million,wasOurFlagOur
Country. Oneofitsadstargetedmostlyat womeninNewYork
State,whichearnedbetween10,000and50,000impressions,
featureda videoofa middle-agedwhiteguycomplainingintothe
camera.“HowdoI feelwhenI turnontheTVona Sunday and
seea wealthycelebrity playertake a knee?,”heasked.“Frankly,it
bothersme.”But,hecontinued,it bothershimevenmorethat
Trumpusestheissuetodividethecountry. A Trumpvoterin 20 16,
he’d bevotingDemocratinthemidterms.Anentirelydifferentad
foranentirelydifferentpage featureda youngerguyina hoodie
recitinga nearlyidenticalscript.Howdidhefeelaboutfootball
playerswhotookknees?Actually,hefeltprettygoodaboutit!
He’d bevotingDemocratinNovember.It’simpossibletotellfrom
theadswhetherthemenarepaidactors.
Thesepagesweretracedbacktoa 32-year-oldex-Viceand
BloombergBusinessweekjournalist namedDanFletcher,whoran
a DenvercreativeagencycalledMotiveAI,whichwasfundedby—
what else?—Hoffman’sInvestinginUs. NewsforDemocracy,
timedtothemidtermelectionsandwalkingthelineonfake news,
wasHoffman’sgutsiest play yet.
Fletcher’s goalwasn’t toreproduceviral clickbaitwitha leftward
slant,though.Itwastoslipliberalmessagingtoaudiencesthat
didn’t necessarilytrust liberals.“Thequestionis,” saysoneMotiveAI
backerwhowasn’t authorizedtospeakontherecord,“Is thereany-
thingthatcanbedonetoactuallydeliverfacts togroupsthat oth-
erwiserefusetohearthembecauseofthemessenger?”
Facebook’s potentialforsubtlepropagandahasn’t totallybeen
lostonotherDemocrats.Duringthemidterms,Ohiogubernato-
rialcandidateRichardCordrayranadsundera blandpage
calledOhioNewswire.TheEnvironmentalDefenseFunddidNobody on the official left seems very goodat “rapid and authentic” at the moment.