The Four

The CEOs at events like DLD can’t respond to my claims because if
they do the markets might listen and the consequences could be
dramatic. In addition, they can actually get into serious legal trouble if
they, accidentally, disclose nonpublic information. Thus, while I get to
put on a show, their speeches are rehearsed and bleached of anything
meaningful you haven’t read before in a press release from their
investor relations department. That’s why people attend my talks: I’m
free to tell the truth, or at least pursue the truth (I get it wrong all the
time).
The CEOs sit and listen to my talks and smile. It’s the smile of
poker players holding aces. And every one of those aces is data. In the
last decade, the world’s most important companies have become
experts in data—its capture, its analytics, and its use. The power of big
data and AI is that it signals the end of sampling and statistics—now
you can just track the shopping pattern of every customer in every one
of your stores around the world—and then respond almost instantly
with discounts, changes in inventory, store layouts, etc.... and do so
24/7/365. Or better yet, you build in the technology to respond every
second, automatically. My favorite use of AI is Netflix autoplay for the
next episode of a series, which has now been copied by other
platforms.
The result is a level of understanding about your customers—
indeed, about human nature itself—that has never before been
possible. And against smaller, more regional companies it offers a
competitive advantage that is essentially unbeatable. The Four have
become wizards.
Facility with data, and tech that updates the product real time, will
be a key component of the Fifth Horseman. No one has been able to
aggregate more intention data on what consumers like than Google.
Google not only sees you coming, but sees where you’re going. When
homicide investigators arrive at a crime scene and there is a suspect—
almost always the spouse—they check the suspect’s search history for
suspicious Google queries (like “how to poison your husband”). I
suspect we’re going to find that U.S. agencies have been mining Google
to understand the intentions of more than some shopper thinking
about detergent, but cells looking for fertilizer to build bombs.