My first reaction to Bezos’s speech was: how refreshing to hear a
CEO who didn’t quote Ayn Rand. However, as I thought further, I
realized that Bezos’s words were terrifying. Or just resigned. The guy
who has the greatest insight and influence into the future of the
world’s largest business (consumer retail) has come to the conclusion
that there’s no way the economy will be able to create, as it has done in
the past, enough jobs to replace those being destroyed. Perhaps our
society has just given up and doesn’t want the burden of trying to
figure out how to sustain a middle class.
Ponder that and ask, “Will my kids have a better life than me?”
World Domination
Amazon’s path to a trillion likely involves a combination of extension
into other parts of the retail value chain and further acquisition.
Amazon recently announced it was leasing twenty Boeing 757s,
purchasing tractor trailers, and getting into shipping.^92 The doubling
of the company’s stock in the last eighteen months and the halving of
the value of many competing retail stocks (including Macy’s and
Carrefour) make acquisition an appealing way to add scale and force
relationships with brands that have refused to work with them (any
luxury brand). The Whole Foods acquisition allows it to establish a
foothold in grocery and acquire a few hundred intelligent warehouses
currently posing as stores.
Amazon’s $434 billion market cap means the Seattle firm could
pay (as of April 2016) a 50 percent premium to acquire the
outstanding shares of Macy’s ($8 billion market cap) and Carrefour
($16 billion) and still only incur an 8 percent dilution to its own
shareholders.^93 One can only guess what the U.S. Justice Department
would say, but my guess is that it would be happy to make the
American economy even more competitive. And the shareholders of
Macy’s and Carrefour would probably breathe a sigh of relief.
Or, better yet, Amazon could perfect the cashless checkout
technology they’re working on with Amazon Go, get the media world
hot and bothered, and increase the value of the firm by $10 billion.
That would be enough to make this, or several other crazy ideas, a