business,’’ Kaho Yu, a senior Asia analyst at
the consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, said in
a research report. “The return of workers to
crowded environments, such as mines and
factories, could push the outbreak to another
peak, resulting in rising discontent and political
pressure for failing to control the crisis.’’
China’s economy, hobbled by a 19-month trade
war with the United States and a deliberate
government campaign to rein in runaway
debts, was decelerating well before the
viral outbreak.
The health crisis is giving multinational
companies another reason to rethink their
dependence on China, which has been at the
center of repeated outbreaks — bird flu in 1997,
SARS in 2003 and now the coronavirus.
Koray Köse, senior director of supply chain
research at the Gartner consultancy, said
companies need to better assess the risks
involved in manufacturing in China and other
developing countries.
“It’s a wake-up call,’’ he said. “Companies will
have to think about their manufacturing
footprint and their appetite for risk.’’
Those companies already had reason to
consider moving some production out of
China. Costs there are rising. And robotics and
other technologies are reducing labor costs
and making it more feasible to manufacture in
high-wage locations such as the United States
and Europe.
Many analysts expect trade tensions between
the United States and China — now marked by
U.S. tariffs on $360 billion in Chinese imports