TheEconomistFebruary 15th 2020 191I
n both 2018 and 2019 nominal wages
rose by more than 3%, the fastest growth
since before the recession a decade ago.
Americans at the bottom of the labour mar-
ket are doing especially well. In the past
year the wages of those without a high-
school diploma have risen by nearly 10%.
Intriguingly, this has come as America has
turned considerably less friendly to immi-
grants, who are assumed by many to steal
jobs from natives and lower the wages of
less-educated folk. The two phenomena
may be connected—but only for a while.
For the first time in half a century Amer-
ica’s immigrant population appears to be
in sustained decline, both in absolute
terms and as a share of the total. Net migra-
tion to America (ie, the difference between
people arriving and people leaving the
country) fell to 595,000 in 2019, the lowest
in over a decade. This is a profound shift in
a country which has often prided itself on
its openness to outsiders.The number of highly qualified immi-
grants continues to rise. San Francisco air-
port remains just as crammed with All-
birds-and-gilet-wearing tech investors
from all over the world. It appears instead
that the overall decline in the foreign-born
population is a result of falling numbers of
low-skilled migrants. Those numbers
slumped a decade ago because of the reces-
sion that began in 2007, changing demo-
graphics in Mexico and tougher border pol-
icing. More recently the number oflow-skilled migrants appears to be in de-
cline again. That is probably a consequence
of policies implemented by President Do-
nald Trump, as well as the off-putting ef-
fects of his rhetoric on foreigners.
Many factors lie behind America’s
growing wages. Labour demand is excep-
tionally high, with unemployment at 3.6%,
giving some workers more bargaining
power. Ambitious increases in state-level
minimum wages in recent years have
boosted the wages of the lowest earners.
Nominal wages are rising not just in Amer-
ica but across rich countries—even though
the foreign-born population in many of
them continues to grow rapidly.
There are nonetheless scraps of evi-
dence that some workers are benefiting
from America’s growing antipathy to im-
migrants. Gordon Hanson of Harvard Uni-
versity suggests that if the impact of re-
duced low-skill migration is showing up
anywhere, it will be in three particular oc-
cupations: housekeepers, building-and-
grounds maintenance workers, and dry-
wall installers. These occupations rely
heavily on immigrant labour and the ser-
vices they provide cannot be traded inter-
nationally. Average wages in those occupa-
tions are rising considerably faster than
wages in other low-paid jobs, according to
calculations by The Economist.
Intriguing evidence also shows up geo-The economics of migrationDelayed reaction
CLEVELAND AND SAN FRANCISCO
Immigration is down. Wages are up. Are the two related?United States
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