The Economist - USA (2020-02-15)

46 Europe The EconomistFebruary 15th 2020

2 resign, probably triggering an election.

But this is unlikely in stability-obsessed

Germany. And so the contenders to lead the

cdu/csuinto the next election will have to

tread carefully. Besides Mr Söder, who is

probably happy with his perch in Munich,

three names stand out. Start with Armin

Laschet, the premier of North Rhine-West-

phalia. Affable, moderate and subtly sub-

versive, Mr Laschet’s biggest asset is his

control of Germany’s most populous state

(and the cdu’s largest branch); as a country

it would be the eu’s sixth-biggest economy.

In style and substance Mr Laschet would

represent the closest thing to continuity

Merkel, which is precisely what puts off a

large chunk of the cdu membership.

A flintier proposition would be Frie-

drich Merz, a former leader of the cdu’s

parliamentary group. The plain-speaking

Mr Merz quit politics for business in 2009

only to make a spectacular return in 2018,

when he gave Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer a

close run for the party leadership. He has

maintained a steady profile since, flying to

party meetings around Germany (often

personally: he has a pilot’s licence), where

adoring crowds lap up his pro-business,

socially conservative line. Mr Merz reckons

that fishing in the pool of afdsupport can

restore the cduto over 35% of the vote. Ear-

ly polls give him a head-start (see chart).

The final contender is Jens Spahn, the

39-year-old health minister, who also

stood in 2018. Mr Spahn made his name as

an abrasive right-winger on economics

and migration, but has mellowed into a

hard-working official with a loyal follow-

ing. Unlike Mr Merz, who carries an unmis-

takable whiff of the 1990s, Mr Spahn can

credibly claim to stand for a new start.

The air in Berlin is thick with scheming

and the cdu is quivering with anxiety. Ger-

many’s original Volkspartei (people’s

party), capacious enough for everyone,

now risks splintering across its many fault-

lines: centrist v conservative; for and

against Merkelism; how to handle the afd

in the east—Thuringia remains unsolved,

and may not be a one-off. Some in the party

fear further infighting might cause the cdu

to fall behind the surging Greens.

That seems unlikely; for all its problems

the cdu is still likely to provide Germany’s

next chancellor. That will give the succes-

sion race the fevered air of a party primary

in a safeish seat. Yet there is a palpable con-

trast with 2018, when Messrs Merz and

Spahn immediately declared their interest

and the prospect of internal competition

electrified the cdu. So far, the same pair

have merely hinted at possible candida-

cies, while Mr Laschet has kept his counsel.

As all three hail from North Rhine-West-

phalia, cdupeacemakers hope they might

broker a deal among themselves rather

than air the party’s cleavages in a public

contest. “There is zero appetite among my

colleaguestogointoa divisiveleadership

election,becauseitriskstearingusapart,”

saysAndreasNick,acdu mp.

During Mrs Merkel’s long reign the

cdu’s repeatedelectionwinstrumpedcon-

cernsoverhermushycentrismandlethar-

gicleadership.Nowthecdumustaskitself

whatsortofpartyitwantstobeina far

morecomplexpoliticalscene.“Thedisrup-

tivepotentialismuchbiggerthanmostre-

alise,”saysAndreasRödder,a historianat

theUniversityofMainzandcdumember.

Formanymonthsthetensionsinsidethe

cduhavebeenbubblingawaylikesubter-

raneanmagma.AfterMs Kramp-Karren-

bauer’sdecision,theythreatentoerupt. 7

T

hings are stirring in Kosovo. Since

February 3rd this tiny new country has

had a dynamic new prime minister, who

wants to drive out of politics the guerrillas

who fought for independence in the 1990s

but then, he says, took to looting the state.

Albin Kurti, 44, says his government’s task

is to “liberate our state from within”.

Many hope he will also be flexible

enough to end the stand-off with Serbia,

which is one of Europe’s last remaining ter-

ritorial disputes. Kosovo, most of whose

people are ethnic Albanians, has been in-

dependent since 2008. Most other coun-

tries recognise it, but Serbia, its old master,

as well as Russia and five eucountries,

does not.

America and the euare keen to revive

the stalled dialogue between the two coun-

tries. In 2018 Serbia’s diplomats successful-

ly thwarted Kosovo’s third attempt to join

Interpol, the international police organisa-

tion. Serbia has also persuaded a dozen

countries to rescind their earlier recogni-

tion of Kosovo. In revenge Kosovo imposed

a 100% tariff on the import of Serbian pro-

duce, which Serbia’s president says has

cost it €435m ($480m). He says it will not

resume dialogue until the tariff is revoked.

Mr Kurti was a student leader in the twi-

light years of Serbian rule. After the war be-

tween Serbia and natoover Kosovo ended

in 1999, he was a political prisoner in Serbia

for almost three years. On his return he led

a ferocious campaign against what he re-

garded as the colonial presence of the Un-

ited Nations, which administered the

country from 1999 to 2008, and against the

eu’s law-and-justice mission there after

that. He also resolutely rejected any negoti-

ations with Serbia.

During 23 years in opposition Mr Kurti

earned a reputation for being intelligent

and principled, but also a dogmatic leftist

and an advocate of Kosovo uniting with Al-

bania. That demand terrifies many inter-

national policymakers, who believe that

changing Balkan borders is a recipe for war.

In October 2019 Mr Kurti’s party won

enough votes to prise the former guerrilla

politicians of the Kosovo Liberation Army

(kla) from power. He wooed voters by trad-

ing in his usual t-shirts for suits and by

tempering his language. Today he says un-

ion with Albania can wait, adding that a

strong Kosovo needs to be built first.

Foreign diplomats are increasing the

pressure on Mr Kurti to lift the 100% tariff

in order to restart the dialogue. He is reluc-

tant to be pushed into a one-sided move.

More important for him are education re-

form, the economy, the environment and

rooting out what he says is a small and cor-

rupt clan that has captured the state. He is

willing to drop the tariff only if Serbia will

reciprocate, which is unlikely as it would

amount to a form of recognition. Cur-

rently, goods with paperwork marked “Re-

public of Kosovo” cannot be sold in Serbia.

But the Trump administration, eager for a

foreign-policy success before America’s

presidential election, is thought to be

pressing Mr Kurti to make a deal.

His domestic challenges are huge, too.

For years, civil-service jobs have been

doled out to supporters of the parties that

grew out of the kla. One incoming minis-

ter says he is only mildly worried that re-

sentful officials will sabotage his plans. A

bigger problem, he says, is that vast num-

bers of people in his ministry are unquali-

fied, having been hired nepotistically. Mr

Kurti’s honeymoon will not last long. 7

PRISTINA

Might a new prime minister open up a

diplomatic impasse?

Kosovo

A new start

Looking pristine in Pristina