The Economist - USA (2020-02-15)

(Antfer) #1

76 The EconomistFebruary 15th 2020


Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units
% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change
latest quarter* 2019† latest 2019† % % of GDP, 2019† % of GDP, 2019† latest,% year ago, bp Feb 12th on year ago
United States 2.3 Q4 2.1 2.3 2.3 Dec 1.8 3.6 Jan -2.4 -4.6 1.6 -106 -
China 6.0 Q4 6.1 6.1 5.4 Jan 2.9 3.6 Q4§ 1.5 -4.3 2.6 §§ -28.0 6.97 -2.7
Japan 1.7 Q3 1.8 0.8 0.8 Dec 0.4 2.2 Dec 3.2 -3.0 nil -8.0 110 0.5
Britain 1.1 Q4 0.1 1.3 1.3 Dec 1.7 3.8 Oct†† -4.3 -1.8 0.6 -56.0 0.77 1.3
Canada 1.7 Q3 1.3 1.7 2.2 Dec 2.0 5.5 Jan -2.1 -1.0 1.4 -52.0 1.33 nil
Euro area 1.0 Q4 0.4 1.2 1.4 Jan 1.2 7.4 Dec 3.2 -0.9 -0.4 -51.0 0.92 -3.3
Austria 1.5 Q3 -0.7 1.6 1.7 Dec 1.4 4.2 Dec 1.6 0.2 -0.2 -71.0 0.92 -3.3
Belgium 1.2 Q4 1.6 1.3 1.4 Jan 1.2 5.3 Dec -0.6 -1.3 -0.1 -78.0 0.92 -3.3
France 0.8 Q4 -0.3 1.2 1.5 Jan 1.3 8.4 Dec -0.9 -3.2 -0.2 -70.0 0.92 -3.3
Germany 0.5 Q3 0.3 0.6 1.7 Jan 1.4 3.2 Dec 7.3 1.5 -0.4 -51.0 0.92 -3.3
Greece 2.7 Q3 2.3 2.2 0.8 Dec 0.5 16.6 Oct -2.1 0.6 1.0 -295 0.92 -3.3
Italy nil Q4 -1.3 0.2 0.6 Jan 0.6 9.8 Dec 2.9 -2.2 0.9 -193 0.92 -3.3
Netherlands 1.9 Q3 1.8 1.8 1.8 Jan 2.7 4.1 Dec 9.2 0.6 -0.3 -51.0 0.92 -3.3
Spain 1.8 Q4 2.1 2.1 1.1 Jan 0.8 13.7 Dec 1.0 -2.3 0.3 -100 0.92 -3.3
Czech Republic 3.4 Q3 1.6 2.6 3.2 Dec 2.9 2.0 Dec‡ 0.7 0.2 1.6 -15.0 22.8 0.4
Denmark 2.3 Q3 1.5 2.1 0.7 Jan 0.8 3.7 Dec 8.3 1.5 -0.3 -61.0 6.86 -3.8
Norway 1.8 Q4 6.5 1.0 1.8 Jan 2.2 4.0 Nov‡‡ 5.4 6.5 1.4 -28.0 9.21 -5.8
Poland 3.1 Q4 -2.3 4.2 3.4 Dec 2.3 5.2 Dec§ 0.5 -1.2 2.2 -58.0 3.90 -1.8
Russia 1.7 Q3 na 1.2 2.4 Jan 4.5 4.6 Dec§ 4.8 1.8 6.2 -213 63.1 3.9
Sweden 1.7 Q3 1.1 1.2 1.8 Dec 1.8 6.0 Dec§ 3.4 0.4 nil -31.0 9.62 -3.4
Switzerland 1.1 Q3 1.6 0.8 0.2 Jan 0.4 2.3 Jan 10.2 0.5 -0.6 -40.0 0.98 3.1
Turkey 0.9 Q3 na 0.1 12.2 Jan 15.2 13.3 Nov§ 0.2 -3.0 10.9 -388 6.05 -13.1
Australia 1.7 Q3 1.8 1.7 1.8 Q4 1.6 5.1 Dec 0.3 0.1 1.1 -106 1.48 -4.7
Hong Kong -2.9 Q4 -1.6 -0.6 2.9 Dec 3.0 3.3 Dec‡‡ 4.8 -0.1 1.5 -35.0 7.77 1.0
India 4.5 Q3 4.5 4.9 7.6 Jan 3.6 7.2 Jan -1.8 -3.9 6.5 -106 71.3 -0.8
Indonesia 5.0 Q4 na 5.1 2.7 Jan 3.0 5.3 Q3§ -2.3 -2.0 6.5 -130 13,660 3.0
Malaysia 3.6 Q4 na 4.5 1.0 Dec 0.7 3.3 Dec§ 3.4 -3.5 2.9 -107 4.14 -1.5
Pakistan 3.3 2019** na 3.3 14.6 Jan 9.4 5.8 2018 -2.6 -8.9 11.3 ††† -180 154 -10.1
Philippines 6.4 Q4 9.1 5.9 2.9 Jan 2.5 4.5 Q4§ -0.3 -2.8 4.4 -194 50.6 3.1
Singapore 0.8 Q4 0.1 0.7 0.8 Dec 0.5 2.3 Q4 17.4 -0.5 1.7 -47.0 1.39 -2.2
South Korea 2.2 Q4 4.7 2.0 1.5 Jan 0.4 4.1 Jan§ 3.6 -0.3 1.6 -37.0 1,180 -4.7
Taiwan 3.3 Q4 7.8 2.7 1.9 Jan 0.6 3.7 Dec 11.8 -0.9 0.6 -22.0 30.0 2.8
Thailand 2.4 Q3 0.4 2.4 1.1 Jan 0.7 1.0 Dec§ 7.5 -2.8 1.1 -113 31.1 0.6
Argentina -1.7 Q3 3.8 -2.7 53.8 Dec‡ 53.5 9.7 Q3§ -1.6 -3.8 na -464 61.2 -38.0
Brazil 1.2 Q3 2.5 1.2 4.2 Jan 3.7 11.0 Dec§‡‡ -2.3 -5.7 4.3 -295 4.34 -14.1
Chile 3.3 Q3 3.0 1.3 3.5 Jan 2.3 7.0 Dec§‡‡ -3.0 -1.8 3.4 -72.0 790 -16.2
Colombia 3.3 Q3 2.3 3.1 3.6 Jan 3.5 9.5 Dec§ -4.5 -2.5 5.6 -108 3,400 -7.7
Mexico -0.3 Q4 nil -0.1 3.2 Jan 3.6 3.1 Dec nil -1.6 6.6 -193 18.6 3.5
Peru 3.0 Q3 2.9 2.3 1.9 Jan 2.1 5.4 Dec§ -1.9 -1.7 3.9 -156 3.38 -1.5
Egypt 5.7 Q3 na 5.6 7.1 Jan 9.2 7.8 Q3§ -1.8 -8.0 na nil 15.7 11.9
Israel 4.2 Q3 4.1 3.3 0.6 Dec 0.8 3.4 Dec 2.5 -3.8 0.8 -128 3.43 6.1
Saudi Arabia 2.4 2018 na 0.4 0.3 Dec -1.2 5.5 Q3 4.8 -6.0 na nil 3.75 nil
South Africa 0.1 Q3 -0.6 0.4 4.0 Dec 4.2 29.1 Q4§ -3.8 -5.9 8.9 8.0 14.8 -7.0
Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving
average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Commodities
TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on
2015=100 Feb 4th Feb 11th* month year
DollarIndex
AllItems 108.7 110.0 -5.8 -0.4
Food 97.8 97.9 -3.7 4.5
Industrials
All 118.9 121.3 -7.3 -3.7
Non-foodagriculturals 99.6 101.2 -2.6 -7.3
Metals 124.6 127.3 -8.4 -2.9
SterlingIndex
Allitems 127.4 129.7 -5.3 -0.8
EuroIndex
Allitems 109.2 111.8 -4.0 3.2
Gold
$ peroz 1,555.7 1,564.5 1.4 19.5
Brent
$ perbarrel 55.1 54.2 -16.2 -13.5
Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;
Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool
Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets
% change on: % change on:
Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st
In local currency Feb 12th week 2018 Feb 12th week 2018
United States S&P 500 3,379.5 1.3 34.8
United States NAScomp 9,726.0 2.3 46.6
China Shanghai Comp 2,926.9 3.9 17.4
China Shenzhen Comp 1,785.3 6.4 40.8
Japan Nikkei 225 23,861.2 2.3 19.2
Japan Topix 1,718.9 1.0 15.0
Britain FTSE 100 7,534.4 0.7 12.0
Canada S&P TSX 17,832.9 1.0 24.5
Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,854.4 2.0 28.4
France CAC 40 6,104.7 2.0 29.0
Germany DAX* 13,749.8 2.0 30.2
Italy FTSE/MIB 24,861.3 2.6 35.7
Netherlands AEX 629.0 2.5 28.9
Spain IBEX 35 9,940.4 2.3 16.4
Poland WIG 58,156.1 0.1 0.8
Russia RTS, $ terms 1,557.4 -0.2 46.1
Switzerland SMI 11,089.2 0.9 31.6
Tu r ke y BIST 120,048.8 -1.9 31.5
Australia All Ord. 7,185.3 1.5 25.9
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27,823.7 3.9 7.7
India BSE 41,565.9 1.0 15.2
Indonesia IDX 5,913.1 -1.1 -4.5
Malaysia KLSE 1,542.9 0.4 -8.7

Pakistan KSE 40,531.1 -0.9 9.3
Singapore STI 3,223.4 0.7 5.0
South Korea KOSPI 2,238.4 3.4 9.7
Taiwan TWI 11,774.2 1.7 21.0
Thailand SET 1,539.8 0.4 -1.5
Argentina MERV 39,936.2 -2.0 31.8
Brazil BVSP 116,674.1 0.6 32.8
Mexico IPC 45,338.4 1.2 8.9
Egypt EGX 30 13,845.2 -1.0 6.2
Israel TA-125 1,684.1 1.6 26.3
Saudi Arabia Tadawul 7,915.4 -2.2 1.1
South Africa JSE AS 57,744.1 0.6 9.5
World, dev'd MSCI 2,435.0 1.2 29.3
Emerging markets MSCI 1,109.7 1.9 14.9

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries
Dec 31st
Basis points latest 2018
Investment grade 144 190
High-yield 472 571
Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed
Income Research. *Total return index.

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