20 newyork| february17–march1, 2020
four more yearsintelligencerglobal trade without fear of immediate
electoral consequences from theeco-
nomic drag those actions will cause.
If Trump cranks up the trade war,hewill
need more help from the FederalReserve,
cutting interest rates to offset theeconomic
damage it causes. So you can expectTrump
to replace Fed chairman Jay Powell—whom
he has called naïve and a “bonehead” who
is “like a golfer who can’t putt” andwhom
he “maybe” regrets appointing tothejobin
thefirst place—witha more loyalleader
whois morelikelytocutinterestrateswhen
Trumpwantsthemcut.
InTrump’ssecondterm,maybea finan-
cialcrisisoranenergycrisisora geopolitical
crisiswilldragdowntheU.S.economy.
Ormaybefundamentalswillshift sothat
hisfavoriteeconomictoolsdon’twork
anymore—maybebigdeficitswillslowthe
economyorlowinterestrateswillpushup
inflation.Butif I hadtoguess,I’d say eco-
nomicperformanceinTrump’ssecond
termwouldprobablybesimilartothefirst.
ThepatternsinceTrump’selectionishis
pursuitof output-boostingpolicy intwokey
areas:fiscal(cuttingtaxeswhilegrowing
spending)andmonetary (pushingforlower
interest rates).Expansionary policy inthese
areascancoverupa lotofsins,suchasan
expandedtradewar. JOSHBARRO
AndEscalatingSe lf-DealingsA
monthaftertrump’sinaugura-
tion,hissonsDonJr. andEriclaidout
anambitiousplanforthefu tureof
theirfather’sreal-estate andbranding
empire.In a front-page articleintheNew
YorkTimes,accompaniedbya photoofthe
twoposedauthoritativelyat a shiny board-
roomtable, theytouted developments
underwayinVancouverandDubaianda
newdomestichotelchaincalledScion,
which Ericsaid wouldbe focusedon
“trendy”citieslike Austin.
TheScionchainneverwentanywhere
afteritsfirstreportedlocationattracted
resistance-ledstreetprotests.Asecond
expansionplan,fora heartland-based
budgetchaincalledAmericanIdea,also
imploded,andtheTrumps’partnerinthe
projectwaschargedlast yearwithstealing
luggage fromanairport baggageturnstile.
Many of the family’s overseas partnershave
been revealed to have unsavory pasts,and
Trump’s own behavior as presidenthas
turned his brand toxic.
But Trump’s reelection could serveasan
adrenaline shot to his moribundcompany.
“I think Trump unleashed in a secondterm,”
says Andrea Bernstein, authorofa book
about the Trump family business,American
Oligarchs, “means he continues tofindways
to get people to pay him, and thatbecomes
turbocharged.” Bernstein
pointsoutthat,sofar, the
financialbrightspotinthe
TrumpOrganization’sport-
foliohasbeentheplacethat
mostbaldlytradesininflu-
ence:theTrumpInterna-
tionalHotelinWashington,
D.C. (With anuncertain
electiononthehorizon,the
companyis reportedlytrying
tocashinbysellingthehotelforasmuchas
$500million.)Trumphasalsosoughtto
capitalizebysellingaccesstohisprivate
clubinMar-a-Lago—whichdoubledthe
joiningfeeto $200,000after hewas
elected—andonlyfiercecriticismfromkey
Republicanskepthimfromstagingthenext
G7summitat hisailinggolfresortinDoral,
Florida.Lookforthat brandofaudacity to
bedeployedmorecreativelyafter2020.
Themost obviousdirection forthe
TrumpOrganizationtoexpandwouldbe
overseas.Ina raucouspressconference
before hewasinaugurated,Trumpprom-
isedhewoulddo“nonewforeigndeals,”
butthepledgewaspurelyvoluntary. For
now,it may bethat theTrumpfamilyhas
discovereda more lucrativelineofbusi-
ness.Hundredsofmillionsofdollarsin
donationsflowthroughpoliticalcam-
paigns,creatinganimmenseopportunity
forconsultantsandfund-raisers—not
tomentionhoteliersandcaterers.“The
businessofTrumpinthenextyearis the
businessofgettingTrumpreelected,”
Bernsteinsays.“It is anincrediblemoney
machine.” ANDREWRICEA Generationof JudgesI
njust three years,Trump has
alreadyfilled 51 vacanciesonU.S.
CourtsofAppeals,the“circuits”thatprovide much of the guidance federal trial
judges utilize. His appointees now repre-
sent more than one-fourth of appeals-court
judges, and he has succeeded in “flipping”
three of the 13 circuits from Democratic-
appointed majorities to Republican-
appointed majorities. This administration
has installed 135 district-court judges and
is on pace to significantly exceed Obama’s
268 in much less time—if Trump is
reelected and Republicans hold on to the
Senate (which they are likely
to do in most “Trump wins”
scenarios).
Trump’s judicial counter-
revolution could happen
most decisively in the
Supreme Court. He quickly
exploited two openings on
scotus, and, in a second
Trump term, the odds of
court liberals Ruth Bader
Ginsburg(who will turn 87 this year and
wasrecentlytreated for pancreatic cancer)
andStephenBreyer (who will be 82 this
summer)hanging on until the next Demo-
craticadministration will go down signifi-
cantly.Onemore flip of a liberal seat on the
Courtcouldproduce a landmark conserva-
tiveerainconstitutional law, almost cer-
tainlyincluding the reversal or significant
modificationof Roe v. Wade and other key
precedents,not to mention a decisive new
eraofsympathy for corporations, reaction-
arystategovernments, nativists, vote sup-
pressors,andfoes of civil liberties. Names
reportedlyon Trump’s short list include
Kavanaughrunner-up and Seventh Circuit
judgeAmy Coney Barrett, a favorite of hard-
coreculturalconservatives; Sixth Circuit
judgeJoanLarsen, who is viewed as hostile
toLGBTQrights; another Sixth Circuit
judge,AmulThapar, a Kentuckian who is
closetoMitch McConnell; and Tenth Cir-
cuitjudge Allison Eid, a former Clarence
Thomasclerk. The relatively diverse nature
ofthisgroupre flects the feeling that three
whitemenina row might be a bit much.
ED KILGOREA Cr isis of FaithT
hefact is, no President has ever
donewhat I have done for Evangeli-
cals,orreligion itself!,” Donald TrumpMore than 210,000 former
students at for-profit
colleges have asked the
Education Department to
cancel their loans
because they were
defrauded. Betsy DeVos’s
department has said
most of those students
will still have to repay.
libby nelson