22 newyork| february17–march1, 2020
four more years
intelligencer
tweeted last year. A dubious claim,butit
could come true—just not in theway he
thinks. His alliance with white born-again
Christians helped make him president.It
may also help end American Evangelical-
ism as we know it.
Trumpis unpopularwithAmerica’s
yo ungestadultsin a momentwhenEvan-
gelicalChristianityis desperatefor young
members.LastMay,ChristianityToday—
thesamepublicationwhoseeditorcalled
forTrump’simpeachmentandinspired
that defensive presidential tweet—
reportedthatmerelyhalfof all children
ra isedSouthernBaptiststaySouthern
Baptistas adults.Thepoliticallyconserva-
tive,mostlywhitedenominationisn’twin-
ningenoughsoulsto makeup itslosses,
ei ther.Overallmembershipin theSouth-
ernBaptistConventionhit a 30-yearlow
in2018.
SouthernBaptists aren’ttheonlyProt-
estantswithshrinkingchurches;liberal
traditionsare losingyoungmemberstoo.
Butthevaluesheldbyyoungadultsare at
oddswiththosebehindthepoliticalgoals
ofwhiteEvangelicalism.Accordingtoone
AssociatedPresspoll,youngadultsare
morelikelythanmembersofany other
age groupto say they disapprove of
Trump.ForwhiteEvangelicals,Trump
mayprovea Moloch,anidolwhodevours
theyounginex changeforhisfavors.
SARAHJONES
Th e Wall,
Ab andoned
B
y thetimeheexitstheoffice,the
presidenthassaidhewantsa 1,000-
milestructurealongtheborder,an
ambitiousgoalconsideringthat U.S.Cus-
tomsandBorderProtectionhasonlycom-
pleted 100 milesinthepast threeyears—
around 90 miles of which serve as
replacementforrun-downbarriersalready
intheground.ThoughTrumphasperma-
nentlyalteredlegalimmigrationtotheU.S.
throughhistravelbanandnativistpolicies
likerestrictingimmigrantaccesstosafety-
netprograms,a finishedwallalongthe
1,954-milesouthernborderwillnotbean
enduringpieceoftheadministration’sleg-
acy fora simplereason:It willnotget done.
According to construction-cost estimator
Ed Zarenski, it’s just unfeasible to build such
a substantial structure in such harsh, remote
territory. At his low-end estimate of $22 bil-
lion, it would take 10,000 workers 11 years
to build 1,000 miles of steel-
slatbarrier. “Butyoumight
notbeabletoge t concrete
truckstodelivertosuchfar-
away sites,” he explains,
“meaningthe contractors
wouldhavetobuildplants
along the way. That is
unlikelytohappen.” Another
practicalconcern:“Wheredo
thesemenstay overnight?
That cost isn’t builtintoany
estimates,andthere aren’t
hotelsalongthis1,000-mile
corridorforpeopletostay
in.”Theseinfrastructural
problemsdon’t addressthe
apparentquality ofthebarrier. Despite
Trump’s claimthat “thiswallis notsome-
thingthatcanbereallyknockeddown,” in
January a stronggust ofwindtoppled
newlysettledpanelsinSouthernCalifor-
nia.“Ican’t believe that anengineer
designedwhatphotosshowthemusingfor
foundationsonthat wall,” Zarenskisays.
“They’vetakena lotoflibertiesinhow
thingsaregettingbuilttogetit doneas
cheaplyastheycan.” Thecurrenttaxpayer
costforthewallsitsat $18.4 billion.
MATTSTIEB
Do n Jr.
20 24
I
f socialmediaseemsparticularly
vitriolic,deceptive,andstupidin2020,
waituntil2024.Thetopexecutivesat
platformslike FacebookandTwitterhave
alreadydemonstrateda willingnessto
bendbackward tosatisfybaselessRepub-
licanaccusationsofsuppression;just as
thenewsmediafounditselfbulliedinto
falseequivalenciesbychargesofbiasat the
endofthe20thcentury, socialmediawill
feelobligatedtogiveconservativesmore
leeway inwhat they post. Oneparticular
beneficiaryofthiswillbeDonaldTrump
Jr ., whoalreadyhasanInstagramaccount
with2.4millionfollowersanda Twitter
account with 4.4 million followers—both
larger than any current Democratic presi-
dential candidate besides Bernie Sanders—
to which he posts unbelievably popular
jokes, memes, and complaints. Newly
empowered by his father’s
victoryin2020,DonJr.’s
onlinepresencewillonly
ge t louder.
ButDonJr. isn’t just shit-
postingonInstagram.He’s
buildinga politicalbasefor
himself.PresidentTrump
willnotrunfora thirdterm
in2024,lessforany par-
ticularlegal reasons (by
then,hisparty wouldhave
aninescapable Supreme
Court majority), than
becausehe’ll beturning 78
andwillbeexhaustedfrom
anotherfouryearsofsecu-
rity briefingsandCabinet meetingsthat
takehimawayfromhistruevocation:
watchingandtweetingaboutcablenews
programs.What reasonwouldhehaveto
continueina jobhehates,especiallyif he
couldgarnernearlyallthebenefitsofthe
presidency—thegraft,theplatform,the
at tention—byhandingthejoboff tosome-
onetiedcloselytohim?Like,say, hisson?
DonJr.,amonghis father’smostener-
geticanddevotedsurrogates,is already
hi ghlypopularin theRepublicanParty.
Hehasopenlyspeculatedaboutrunning
for governor of New York,but more
re centlyhe’ssaidto be consideringa run
ina moreTrump-friendlystateinthe
MountainWest.(Someallieshavereport-
edlypushedDonJr. for chairmanshipof
th e RNC.)An Axios–SurveyMonkeypoll
fr omDecemberfoundthat29 percentof
Republicansalreadywouldconsidervot-
ingfor DonaldTrumpJr. in the 2024 elec-
tion.That’snearlydoublethesupportfor
hi s morepolished sister,Ivanka,and
behindonlyVice-PresidentMikePence.
Assumingenoughof Trumpism’ssenior-
citizenbaseis stillalive,DonJr. couldsail
tothepresidencyor at leastfaceoff in a
fi eryrunagainstAlexandriaOcasio-
Cortez.TrumpSenior,meanwhile,could
keeptweeting about politics to his
heart’scontent. MAXREAD
The sage grouse has
evolved to survive for tens
of millions of years in some
of the most brutal climates.
Researchers estimate there
are only about 500,000
of the birds left owing to
habitat loss—a dwindling
population that could be
severely at risk because of
the Trump administration’s
decision not to honor
a conservation plan
set in place by Barack
Obama in 2015.
lauren k at z
With interviews by Brian Feldman,
Ben Jacobs, Sarah Jones, Anna Silman,
and Matt Stieb
