february 17–march 1, 2020 | new york 89as“boughtandpaidforbythefarleft”could
easilylandherwitha far-rightopponent,
includingLePagehimself(whohas,infact,
endorsedCollins).He’s changedhisresi-
dencytoFlorida,butsomerumbleabout
howeasyit wouldbeforhimtodropback
inandbeatCollinsina primary. Thenthere
is theyoung,charismatic,andultra-right-
wingmayorofWaterville,NickIsgro.
Butif crossingTrumpis a risk,there’snot
a lotofcompellingevidencethat standing
byhimwillwinheranyprizeswithhis
base.Afterall,evenbeforeRomneygave
hisspeech,implicitlyindictingtheother
moderateswhohadvotedtoshieldthe
presidentfromconviction,Trumphimself
hadhumiliatedCollinsandherstated
belief that he had learned from his
impeachment.Askedabouthercomments,
he’d deniedthat he’dlearnedanything,
forcingCollinstobacktrackheralready
dubiousassertionbycallingherbelief inhis
chastisement“aspirational.”Bypresenting
markers that are so easily, observably
blownthroughbyherparty, Collinseither
re vealsherselftobea chump,orrevealsher
suspicionthatvotersare chumps.
Despiteallthis,Collinsmightwellwinin
2020.Sure,themoney ispouringinfor
Gideon,andatleast insouthernMaine,
hometoliberalandleft voters,bumpersare
affixedwithbye-bye,susanstickers.Every
timeshemakesa statement,theinternet is
awashwithpeoplepostingdonationsto
Gideon(oroneofherDemocraticrivals).
Googleanalyticsshowthat impeachment
seasonhada hugespike insearchesfor
“Collins’sopponent.” ControloftheSenate
rests ona coupleofseats viewedaspoten-
tiallyflippable;it is possiblethat shewillbe
runninginthewakeofa SupremeCourt
decisioninJuneMedicalServicesv.Geethat
willresultintheclosingofvastnumbersof
abortionclinics,withalleyesonthesenators
whoinstalledKavanaugh.
Butit’ s hard tobeat incumbents.“Pundits
alwayswanttopredictthat Maineis much
morecompetitivethanit is,” saidGilman.
TobyMcGrathsaid,“Thisis probablythe
mostdi
oneoft
there’s goingtobethehighest turnoutwe’ve
everhadinMaine.Withthepresidential
election, I think we could be at 75 or 80 per-
cent, with a lot of low-information voters
showing up to the polls. They’ve known
Susan Collins’s name for five elections.”
Six years ago, said Katie Mae Simpson,
who ran State Legislator Shenna Bellows’s
campaign against Collins, “everyone
thought Collins was untouchable, and it was
essentially true. And we ran a strong race
fromtheprogressive left—no mistakes.”
Backthen,there was little outside interest;
feministgroups didn’t want to target Col-
lins,sinceshewas perceived as far more
benignthanother Republican incumbents.
Bellowsgotjust over 30 percent of the vote.
Gilmanobserved that the very rural and
spread-outnature of the state makes it
toughforCollins’s opponent, who may well
beGideon,a Rhode Island native who
movedtoFreeport, Maine, in 2003 and
waselectedtothe Maine House in 2012.
Gideon’slaunch video showed her in her
expansivesuburban kitchen, telling the
storyofherentrance into politics: She’d
comehomeand heard a voice-message
urgingherhusband to run for towncouncil;
sheraninstead.
Gideonis young, smart, and has a lot of
politicalbacking and money behind her
campaign.Butshe did not grow up picking
potatoes;shehasn’t been to all 495 towns.
Andthatcould matter. “Running a cam-
paigninthemost rural state in America
withsomeonewho’s done it severaltimes is
alwaysa benefit,” Gilman said. “I can’t think
ofa U.S.senator who was not successful in
reelectioninMaine.”
Except,ofcourse, for Collins’s idol, Mar-
garetChaseSmith, who in 1972tried to
extendherrecord as (then) the longest-
servingwoman in Congress by running for
a fif thSenateterm and was defeated. That
losswasblamed on Smith’s failure to spend
enoughtimecampaigning in the state; she
hadrumoredhealth problems by then,
didn’t comeback to Maine enough,and was
criticizedfornot spending enough time
communicating with her constituents. She
losttoa Democrat who’d moved to the state
lessthan 20 years before.B
ack in the summer of 2017,
whenshe cast her vote against the
repealof the ACA, in the dramatic
sessionthat concluded with John
McCain’sthumbs-down, Collins was greet-
edattheairport in Bangor with a standing
ovation.In photos taken of the moment,
youcanseeher expression of delight. “It
reallywassoextraordinary, heartwarming,”
Collinswouldtell Jake Tapper of the recep-
sherecei at day. “It was just
ing...It encouraging and af-
firming,especially after arriving home after
a verydifficulttime.”Collins is so often portrayed as stuck,
boxed in by mean Mitch McConnell on one
side and disruptive activists on the other, as
if she is the victim of timing and circum-
stance. Maybe it’s a projection of how so
many Americans feel right now: powerless
and trapped, fearful that our single votes
have little chance of changing an outcome.
But Collins, unlike us, has taken single
votes that have changed outcomes; she’s
not trapped. In her fourth term, in her 60s,
as a senior member of the Republican
caucus and senior senator in her state, as a
County girl with a straight backbone, she
could have had enormous influence over
the nation’s future. She could have been the
hero Mitt Romney was, if only she had been
willing to walk away: from her party, and
likely from her seat.
So really: Why stay? If, as Collins often
says, whatever she does will get half the state
angry with her, and she doesn’t like people
being angry with her, why choose this future
over the July day on the lake with her hus-
band? Collins’s former peer and rival, Olym-
pia Snowe, the woman whom Reid called a
“real moderate,” chose to leave, announcing
her retirement in 2012 at age 64 and sug-
gesting that there simply was no space for
anyone like her in the party anymore.
It’s hard to see what Collins wants to go
back to Washington to do, unless it is, sim-
ply, to continue to be in the U.S.Senate,
which, as Adam Jentleson, the former dep-
uty chief of staff to Harry Reid, commented
to me, “is the world’s greatest retirement
home, with a full schedule and a staff to tend
to all your needs.”
Perhaps the least charitable but most
quotidian answer to why Collins would
want to stay comes from Reid himself. “It
appears what we have now is people run-
ning for Senate,” said the formersenator,
“many of [whom] care more about the
position than what the position’s about.”
Back in 1997, her first year in office, Col-
lins gave an interview that showed how
instinctively she understood the power of
being a possible swing vote in a Senate that
still sometimes worked on a bipartisan
model. “I’m consistently sought out by both
sides for co- sponsorship of bills,”she told
the New York Times. “I have a lot of power—
I like that.”
Choosing between a party that now
demands total fealty and a constituency
she’s promised independence, Collins—a
woman who has built her imagearound
being a careful, thoughtful decision-
maker—appears to have made no decision
at all about the best way to keep her power.
Instead, she is hoping that she canpretend
to do both without anyone noticing.
It might work. But if I were her, I’d be
deeply concerned. ■Susan CollinsCONTINUED FROM PAGE 39