The Economist - USA (2020-02-08)

48 Britain The EconomistFebruary 8th 2020

2 flexibility over the withdrawal treaty last

year shows, he is willing to make big con-

cessions to get agreement. Unlike Theresa

May, his predecessor, he has a huge parlia-

mentary majority, which means that he

need not worry about Westminster mps re-

jecting it. Even on fish, his offer of an annu-

al agreement on catchable quotas points to

some room for compromise.

As for the eu, its hard line on the level

playing-field could yet soften. What mat-

ters, says a diplomat, is not forcing Britain

to adhere religiously to eurules but having

a reliable enforcement mechanism if it

strays. He calls this having a gun on the ta-

ble that can be picked up and fired if need

be. Even the role of the ecjin a governance

structure can be fudged: it must have the

exclusive right to interpret the eu’s laws

and thus police its side of any deal, but that

need not imply intrusion into Britain’s.

Geopolitics would urge a deal, too. No-

body in the euwants Britain to drift off

across the Atlantic or towards Asia. And de-

spite chatter by some of his more rabid al-

lies, there is little sign that Mr Johnson fa-

vours either (though he is bullish about a

trade deal with America). Failure to reach

even a basic agreement would reflect badly

on both sides. And it ought to be possible

later to build on such a plain deal to cover

the more complex issues left over.

A big worry is that both sides may be

drawing the wrong conclusions from the

tortuous negotiations on the withdrawal

treaty. The eureckons it won by being firm

and united, and by using its superior

weight to force successive British prime

ministers into concessions. Mr Johnson

believes that Mrs May failed because she

was not ready to walk away from the table

and into no-deal, partly because her own

mps would not let her. Brussels may be

underestimating a newly empowered Mr

Johnson’s willingness to accept no-deal,

while the prime minister may be overesti-

mating the eu’s fear of this outcome.

This is partly because, for both sides,

the cost of no-deal has shrunk. The with-

drawal treaty will remain in place to cover

the first-round issues of money, euciti-

zens and averting a hard Irish border. Ex-

cept for a few vulnerable sectors, the trade

losses from moving from unfettered sin-

gle-market access into a bare-bones deal

for goods are not that much greater than

those of switching to trade on wtoterms

alone. If the political price for either side to

reach an agreement starts to look too high,

no-deal may start looking like a plausible

alternative. That is the biggest reason why

it might actually happen. 7

P

eter czernin is a successful Holly-

wood film producer who has been

nominated for an Oscar. Yet the Internet

Movie Database (imdb) is more interested

in his blood than his talent. “I was horrified

to see that it said, ‘Peter Czernin is the heir

to a baronial title’,” he says. “I don’t want to

be defined by the fact that I’m the grandson

of the Baron Howard de Walden.”

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s deci-

sion to choose Disney over ribbon-cutting

startled their family and fans, but they are

part of a broader trend. A genealogical au-

dit of the modern House of Windsor re-

veals that 42% of King George V’s great-

great-grandchildren—who are mostly

young adults today—work in the arts and

entertainment businesses.

It was not always thus. Just six of Queen

Victoria’s 132 great-great-grandchildren

landed in the creative industries, not that

they would have recognised the term.

Some ended up penniless; many more

were in public service. Today’s lot are better

off—the modern economy has been kind to

those well-endowed with property—and

tend to be enmeshed in a celebrity circus of

professional creatives and Instagram

icons. Lady Amelia Windsor, granddaugh-

ter of the Duke of Kent, is a model and so-

cial media influencer. Her brother, Lord

Downpatrick, founded a fashion brand.

The Lascelles family, descended from

Mary, Princess Royal, is now thick with

musicians and filmmakers. Other aristos

have been muses to Giorgio Armani, made

crystal jewellery and daubed graffiti.

Aristocrats presumably choose the cre-

ative arts because they offer pleasanter and

more prestigious employment than most

fields do, there is no clear definition of suc-

cess, and the low pay and scant benefits

common in the industry’s lower reaches

are less troublesome to those whose exis-

tences are cushioned by wealth. Why the

creative arts should choose aristocrats

takes a bit more explaining.

It could be connections. Those help,

particularly in the art-dealing business,

which involves persuading one lot of rich

people to sell their paintings and another

lot to buy them. Princess Eugenie and Lady

Helen Taylor are art dealers. Not all aristo-

crats are happy to admit the power of con-

nections. “There are individuals who’ve as-

sumed I live a particular lifestyle and have

managed to obtain my role in the luxury in-

dustry thanks to help from my extended

family,” says Zenouska Mowatt, who is 56th

in line to the throne. She works at Halcyon

Days, who make luxury enamelled goods

and have three Royal Warrants.

But it may have more to do with what

has happened to the creative arts. Success

in the field depends on the ability to mar-

ket oneself, and people with a bit of inherit-

ed stardust have a big advantage on social

media. Sam Chatto’s 60,000 Instagram fol-

lowers may be attracted by his ceramics,

but the fact that he is Princess Margaret’s

grandson probably adds to his charms.

Many younger aristocrats’ brands and

businesses are intertwined with their fam-

ilies’. The Manners sisters, two models and

a singer, daughters of the Duke of Rutland,

use their popular social media accounts to

promote events at Belvoir Castle, the fam-

ily’s estate. Viscountess Weymouth’s re-

cent stint on “Strictly Come Dancing”, a tv

show, raised the profile of Longleat House,

the family seat, along with aristocratic eye-

brows. Viscountess Hinchingbrooke is an

American blogger whose appearance on

“An American Aristocrat’s Guide to Great

Estates” and “Ladies of London” has boost-

ed turnover at Mapperton House.

Sam Friedman, a member of the govern-

ment’s social mobility commission, thinks

aristocrats in the creative arts have some

cultural significance. “These are people

who are mediating really important stories

about who the British are today.” Economi-

cally, though, their new occupations prob-

ably do not add up to much: the Earl of Burl-

ington’s photography and his wife’s

fashion business are not what’s keeping

Chatsworth House standing. And whether

what they do actually counts as work or not

varies from case to case. “There are some,”

says Mr Czernin, “who think ‘job’ is just a

book in the Old Testament.” 7

Once they ran the empire; today they

run Instagram accounts

Aristocrats’ jobs

Courting fame

Amelia Windsor, new model aristo

Correction: In “Third Country Stories” ( January 31st)

we said that America requires deals to lapse if its

partner negotiates with China. Actually, the

legislation allows America to let a deal lapse if its

partner agrees one with China.