The Economist - USA (2020-02-08)

(Antfer) #1
Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units
% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change
latest quarter* 2019† latest 2019† % % of GDP, 2019† % of GDP, 2019† latest,% year ago, bp Feb 5th on year ago
United States 2.3 Q4 2.1 2.3 2.3 Dec 1.8 3.5 Dec -2.4 -4.6 1.7 -105 -
China 6.0 Q4 6.1 6.1 4.5 Dec 2.9 3.6 Q4§ 1.5 -4.3 2.6 §§ -26.0 7.00 -3.7
Japan 1.7 Q3 1.8 0.8 0.8 Dec 0.4 2.2 Dec 3.2 -3.0 nil -8.0 110 0.1
Britain 1.1 Q3 1.7 1.3 1.3 Dec 1.8 3.8 Oct†† -4.3 -1.8 0.6 -68.0 0.77 nil
Canada 1.7 Q3 1.3 1.7 2.2 Dec 2.0 5.6 Dec -2.1 -1.0 1.4 -55.0 1.33 -1.5
Euro area 1.0 Q4 0.4 1.2 1.4 Jan 1.2 7.4 Dec 3.2 -0.9 -0.4 -53.0 0.91 -3.3
Austria 1.5 Q3 -0.7 1.6 1.7 Dec 1.4 4.2 Dec 1.6 0.2 -0.2 -59.0 0.91 -3.3
Belgium 1.2 Q4 1.6 1.3 1.4 Jan 1.2 5.3 Dec -0.6 -1.3 -0.1 -79.0 0.91 -3.3
France 0.8 Q4 -0.3 1.2 1.5 Jan 1.3 8.4 Dec -0.9 -3.2 -0.2 -74.0 0.91 -3.3
Germany 0.5 Q3 0.3 0.6 1.7 Jan 1.3 3.2 Dec 7.3 1.0 -0.4 -53.0 0.91 -3.3
Greece 2.7 Q3 2.3 2.2 0.8 Dec 0.5 16.6 Oct -2.1 0.6 1.2 -271 0.91 -3.3
Italy nil Q4 -1.3 0.2 0.6 Jan 0.7 9.8 Dec 2.9 -2.2 1.0 -184 0.91 -3.3
Netherlands 1.9 Q3 1.8 1.8 2.7 Dec 2.7 4.1 Dec 9.2 0.6 -0.3 -60.0 0.91 -3.3
Spain 1.8 Q4 2.1 2.1 1.1 Jan 0.8 13.7 Dec 1.0 -2.3 0.3 -102 0.91 -3.3
Czech Republic 3.4 Q3 1.6 2.6 3.2 Dec 2.9 2.0 Dec‡ 0.7 0.2 1.5 -21.0 22.8 -1.0
Denmark 2.3 Q3 1.5 2.1 0.8 Dec 0.8 3.7 Dec 8.3 1.5 -0.3 -66.0 6.79 -3.7
Norway 1.3 Q3 0.1 1.0 1.4 Dec 2.2 4.0 Nov‡‡ 5.4 6.5 1.4 -40.0 9.21 -7.9
Poland 3.1 Q4 -2.3 4.2 3.4 Dec 2.3 5.2 Dec§ 0.5 -1.2 2.2 -55.0 3.86 -2.6
Russia 1.7 Q3 na 1.2 3.0 Dec 4.5 4.6 Dec§ 4.8 1.8 6.3 -193 62.9 4.2
Sweden 1.7 Q3 1.1 1.2 1.8 Dec 1.8 6.0 Dec§ 3.4 0.4 nil -40.0 9.58 -4.9
Switzerland 1.1 Q3 1.6 0.8 0.2 Dec 0.4 2.3 Dec 10.2 0.5 -0.7 -47.0 0.97 3.1
Turkey 0.9 Q3 na 0.1 12.2 Jan 15.2 13.4 Oct§ 0.2 -3.0 10.1 -417 5.99 -13.2
Australia 1.7 Q3 1.8 1.7 1.8 Q4 1.6 5.1 Dec 0.3 0.1 1.0 -121 1.48 -6.8
Hong Kong -2.9 Q4 -1.6 -0.6 2.9 Dec 3.0 3.3 Dec‡‡ 4.8 -0.1 1.4 -40.0 7.76 1.2
India 4.5 Q3 4.5 4.9 7.4 Dec 3.6 7.2 Jan -1.8 -3.9 6.5 -111 71.2 0.5
Indonesia 5.0 Q4 na 5.1 2.7 Jan 3.0 5.3 Q3§ -2.3 -2.0 6.6 -123 13,675 2.0
Malaysia 4.4 Q3 na 4.5 1.0 Dec 0.8 3.2 Nov§ 3.1 -3.5 3.1 -96.0 4.12 -0.7
Pakistan 3.3 2019** na 3.3 14.6 Jan 9.4 5.8 2018 -2.6 -8.9 11.2 ††† -205 154 -10.4
Philippines 6.4 Q4 9.1 5.9 2.9 Jan 2.5 4.5 Q4§ -0.3 -2.8 4.5 -172 50.9 3.0
Singapore 0.8 Q4 0.1 0.7 0.8 Dec 0.5 2.3 Q4 17.4 -0.5 1.7 -52.0 1.38 -2.2
South Korea 2.2 Q4 4.7 1.8 1.5 Jan 0.4 3.4 Dec§ 3.0 0.8 1.6 -38.0 1,191 -6.1
Taiwan 3.4 Q4 7.0 2.7 1.1 Dec 0.6 3.7 Dec 11.8 -0.9 0.6 -25.0 30.1 2.2
Thailand 2.4 Q3 0.4 2.4 0.9 Dec 0.7 1.0 Dec§ 6.8 -2.8 1.2 -102 30.9 1.1
Argentina -1.7 Q3 3.8 -2.7 53.8 Dec‡ 53.7 9.7 Q3§ -1.2 -4.0 na -464 60.6 -38.6
Brazil 1.2 Q3 2.5 1.2 4.3 Dec 3.7 11.0 Dec§‡‡ -2.3 -5.7 4.3 -269 4.26 -13.6
Chile 3.3 Q3 3.0 1.3 3.0 Dec 2.3 7.0 Dec§‡‡ -3.0 -1.8 3.4 -79.0 779 -16.2
Colombia 3.3 Q3 2.3 3.1 3.6 Jan 3.5 9.5 Dec§ -4.5 -2.5 5.7 -96.0 3,361 -8.1
Mexico -0.3 Q4 nil nil 2.8 Dec 3.6 3.1 Dec -0.8 -2.7 6.7 -180 18.6 2.4
Peru 3.0 Q3 2.9 2.3 1.9 Jan 2.1 5.4 Dec§ -1.9 -1.7 3.9 -155 3.36 -0.9
Egypt 5.7 Q3 na 5.6 7.0 Dec 9.2 7.8 Q3§ -1.8 -8.0 na nil 15.8 11.5
Israel 4.2 Q3 4.1 3.3 0.6 Dec 0.8 3.4 Dec 2.5 -3.8 0.9 -122 3.44 4.9
Saudi Arabia 2.4 2018 na 0.4 0.3 Dec -1.2 5.5 Q3 4.8 -6.0 na nil 3.75 nil
South Africa 0.1 Q3 -0.6 0.4 4.0 Dec 4.2 29.1 Q3§ -3.8 -5.9 8.8 24.0 14.8 -9.3
Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving
average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

76 The EconomistFebruary 8th 2020


Commodities
TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on
2015=100 Jan 28th Feb 4th* month year
DollarIndex
AllItems 113.5 108.7 -6.2 nil
Food 100.1 97.8 -3.3 3.8
Industrials
All 126.0 118.9 -8.3 -2.8
Non-foodagriculturals 101.8 99.6 -3.3 -10.6
Metals 133.2 124.6 -9.4 -0.7
SterlingIndex
Allitems 133.4 127.4 -5.5 -0.7
EuroIndex
Allitems 114.4 109.2 -5.4 3.4
Gold
$ peroz 1,570.9 1,555.7 -0.9 18.4
Brent
$ perbarrel 60.0 55.1 -19.2 -11.5
Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;
Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool
Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets
% change on: % change on:
Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st
In local currency Feb 5th week 2018 Feb 5th week 2018
United States S&P 500 3,334.7 1.9 33.0
United States NAScomp 9,508.7 2.5 43.3
China Shanghai Comp 2,818.1 -5.3 13.0
China Shenzhen Comp 1,678.6 -4.5 32.4
Japan Nikkei 225 23,319.6 -0.3 16.5
Japan Topix 1,701.8 0.1 13.9
Britain FTSE 100 7,482.5 nil 11.2
Canada S&P TSX 17,651.6 0.8 23.2
Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,777.8 1.1 25.9
France CAC 40 5,985.4 0.5 26.5
Germany DAX* 13,478.3 1.0 27.6
Italy FTSE/MIB 24,236.6 0.3 32.3
Netherlands AEX 613.4 1.4 25.7
Spain IBEX 35 9,717.8 1.8 13.8
Poland WIG 58,121.8 1.3 0.7
Russia RTS, $ terms 1,560.5 -0.6 46.4
Switzerland SMI 10,994.2 1.2 30.4
Tu r ke y BIST 122,320.8 2.2 34.0
Australia All Ord. 7,080.9 -0.8 24.0
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26,786.7 -1.4 3.6
India BSE 41,142.7 -0.1 14.1
Indonesia IDX 5,978.5 -2.2 -3.5
Malaysia KLSE 1,536.8 -0.9 -9.1

Pakistan KSE 40,884.3 -2.4 10.3
Singapore STI 3,200.1 0.6 4.3
South Korea KOSPI 2,165.6 -0.9 6.1
Taiwan TWI 11,573.6 -4.5 19.0
Thailand SET 1,534.1 0.6 -1.9
Argentina MERV 40,767.1 1.1 34.6
Brazil BVSP 116,028.3 0.6 32.0
Mexico IPC 44,782.9 -0.8 7.5
Egypt EGX 30 13,987.2 1.6 7.3
Israel TA-125 1,657.0 0.8 24.3
Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,094.4 -1.1 3.4
South Africa JSE AS 57,426.2 1.9 8.9
World, dev'd MSCI 2,405.0 1.3 27.7
Emerging markets MSCI 1,089.4 -0.7 12.8

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries
Dec 31st
Basis points latest 2018
Investment grade 146 190
High-yield 477 571
Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed
Income Research. *Total return index.

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