- Cohen, A. J. et al. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease
attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of
Diseases Study 2015. Lancet 389 , 1907–1918 (2017).
- United States Environmental Protection Agency National Air Quality: Status and Trends of
Key Air Pollutants https://www.epa.gov/air-trends (US EPA, 2018).
- Tong, D. Q. et al. Long-term NOx trends over large cities in the United States during the
great recession: comparison of satellite retrievals, ground observations, and emission
inventories. Atmos. Environ. 107 , 70–84 (2015).
- Tong, D. Q., Lee, P. & Saylor, R. D. New directions: the need to develop process-based
emission forecasting models. Atmos. Environ. 47 , 560–561 (2012).
- Jiang, Z. et al. Unexpected slowdown of US pollutant emission reduction in the past
decade. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115 , 5099–5104 (2018).
- Heald, C. L. et al. Atmospheric ammonia and particulate inorganic nitrogen over the
United States. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12 , 10295–10312 (2012).
- Zhu, L. et al. Sources and impacts of atmospheric NH 3 : current understanding and
frontiers for modeling, measurements, and remote sensing in North America. Curr. Pollut.
Rep. 1 , 95–116 (2015).
- Crouse, D. L. et al. A new method to jointly estimate the mortality risk of long-term
exposure to fine particulate matter and its components. Sci. Rep. 6 , 18916 (2016).
- Beelen, R. et al. Natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to particle components:
an analysis of 19 European cohorts within the multi-center ESCAPE project. Environ.
Health Perspect. 123 , 525–533 (2015).
- Kioumourtzoglou, M.-A. et al. Long-term PM2.5 exposure and neurological hospital
admissions in the northeastern United States. Environ. Health Perspect. 124 , 23–29 (2016).
- Turner, M. C. et al. Ambient air pollution and cancer mortality in the cancer prevention
study II. Environ. Health Perspect. 125 , 087013 (2017).
- Rosa, M. J. et al. Prenatal exposure to PM2.5 and birth weight: a pooled analysis from three
North American longitudinal pregnancy cohort studies. Environ. Int. 107 , 173–180 (2017).
- Joel, S., Kelvin, F. & Antonella, Z. A national multicity analysis of the causal effect of local
pollution, NO 2 , and PM2.5 on mortality. Environ. Health Perspect. 126 , 087004 (2018).
- Di, Q. et al. association of short-term exposure to air pollution with mortality in older
adults. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 318 , 2446–2456 (2017).
84. Wang, Y. et al. Doubly robust additive hazards models to estimate effects of a continuous
exposure on survival. Epidemiology 28 , 771–779 (2017).
85. Kioumourtzoglou, M.-A., Schwartz, J., James, P., Dominici, F. & Zanobetti, A. PM2.5 and
mortality in 207 US cities: modification by temperature and city characteristics.
Epidemiology 27 , 221–227 (2016).
86. Lin, J. et al. China’s international trade and air pollution in the United States. Proc. Natl
Acad. Sci. USA 111 , 1736–1741 (2014).
Acknowledgements We thank the EPA and K. Travis (Harvard) for providing assistance with the
NEI datasets. This publication was made possible by US EPA grant RD-835872-01. Its contents
are solely the responsibility of the grantee and do not necessarily represent the official views
of the USEPA. Further, USEPA does not endorse the purchase of any commercial products or
services mentioned in the publication. I.C.D. was additionally funded through the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Martin Family Fellowship for Sustainability and the
MIT George and Marie Vergottis Fellowship. We also acknowledge support by the VoLo
Foundation.
Author contributions I.C.D. and S.R.H.B. planned the research. I.C.D. performed the emissions
modelling and the air quality modelling PM2.5 simulations. S.D.E. and E.M. performed the air
quality modelling ozone simulations. I.C.D. and S.D.E. performed results analysis. I.C.D. drafted
the manuscript with the help of S.D.E. and S.R.H.B. All authors provided feedback on the
manuscript.
Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to S.R.H.B.
Peer review information Nature thanks Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Enrico Pisoni,
Andrea Pozzer and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review
of this work.
Reprints and permissions information is available at http://www.nature.com/reprints.
