40 TIME September 3–10, 2018
whether to lift the stay is scheduled for
Sept. 10 in Los Angeles.
All this would be worrisome enough
for the President if his problems ended
with Cohen. But they don’t. In the same
hour the lawyer pleaded guilty to eight
felonies in Manhattan, Manafort was
facing the music in a courtroom outside
Washington. His conviction on eight
criminal charges—two counts of bank
fraud, ive counts of tax fraud and one
count of failing to disclose foreign bank
accounts—illustrates the depth and
breadth Mueller’s investigation. That
probe has already resulted in more than
100 criminal charges against 33 people
and three companies and secured guilty
pleas from Manafort’s longtime deputy
Rick Gates, former Trump National
Security Adviser Michael Flynn and
former Trump campaign aide George
Papadopoulos.
During the Manafort trial, federal
prosecutors did not address possible
collusion between Trump’s presidential
campaign and Russian actors, but they
did show that Mueller’s investigators
are looking closely at potential inancial
crimes. The Mueller probe reportedly
has ensnared top Trump associates like
Roger Stone over what he knew about
WikiLeaks’ release of emails stolen from
the Hillary Clinton campaign chairman’s
account. Mueller is reportedly also
looking at the President’s eldest son,
Donald Trump Jr., for his role in a secret
meeting during the 2016 campaign
with a Russian lawyer, billed to the
campaign as an opportunity to gain
damaging information on Clinton.
Cohen has reportedly said he is willing
to tell Mueller that Trump was aware of
the June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower
before it happened.
Trump’s most immediate peril may
not be on the legal front. Justice Depart-
ment guidelines restrict prosecutors
from bringing charges against a sitting
President—he can be indicted only after
he leaves oice. But the political toll of
the mushrooming scandals is another
matter. In the short term, he is unlikely
to see his support drop. “This won’t be
a blip in polls,” a top Democratic Sen-
ate aide predicted. “Literally, nothing
changes this guy’s polling.” Most Ameri-
cans have ixed their opinions about him
by now. “This stopped being a game of
persuasion in about October of 2016,” a
top Republican on Capitol Hill said.
But the courtroom drama cemented
corruption as a theme that Democrats
will use to hammer Republicans in the
11 weeks until the midterm elections.
Democrats are wary for now of the ar-
gument that Cohen’s claims should ini-
tiate impeachment proceedings, fearing
the prospect would energize Trump’s
supporters more than their own. Some
of the most successful messaging tests
Democrats have seen, according to two
top strategists who have conducted
focus groups in representative dis-
tricts, is to cast incumbent Republicans
as “yes men” to the President. That’s
why strategists close to House Demo-cratic leader Nancy Pelosi recently sent
a memo to Democratic candidates with
a proposed message: run as a check on
Trump’s agenda. In their research, poll-
sters found that Democratic candidates
saw a 12-point bump using that mes-
sage; among independent and non-
aligned voters, the rhetoric was worth 14
percentage points.
If Trump’s spreading scandals engulf
Republicans in November, Democrats
could find themselves chairing
committees next January with broad
powers to investigate the President and
his associates. A Democratic House or
Senate could challenge the White House
on everything from the President’s
coveted border wall to his tax returns.
Washington would tilt on its axis as
Democrats with subpoena power move
against their beleaguered opponent in
the White House.Nation
Manafort, outside a federal courthouse in
Washington in June, was found guilty of eight
counts of bank and tax fraud on Aug. 21MANAFORT: ERIN SCHAFF—THE NEW YORK TIMES/REDUX; COVER: DIRCK HALSTEAD (NIXON) AND FREDWARD-BLACK STAR (DEAN)