BBC Wildlife - UK (2020-04)

April 2020 BBC Wildlife 27

WILDOPINION

A

staggeringonebillion

animalshavebeen

killedinAustralia’s

wildfires.Atleast,

that’swhatrecent

headlinesclaim.But

is it true?Or,likesomany‘statistics’,

hasthenumberbeenpluckedoutof

thinair,repeated,thenrepeatedagain

andagain,untilit becomes‘fact’.

Fifa,forexample,claimsthatmore

than3.5billionpeoplewatchedat

leastsomeofthe 2018 WorldCup.

That’snearlyhalftheentireworld

population.Butwhenyoupeelaway

thenumbers,it doesn’tmakesense.

Takeawaytheonebillionpeoplein

Africawithouttelevisions,theone

billionpeopleinChinawhodidn’t

tunein,the0.7billionchildren

worldwideagedfouroryounger,

andsoon,andyoubegintowonder

wherethefigurecomesfrom.

It happenswithwildlifestatistics

allthetime.Peoplekeepquotinga

figureof 100 millionsharkskilled

everyyearfortheirfins,tomakeshark

finsoup.Thatmayhavebeentrue

15–20yearsago,butnotanymore.

Inmanypartsoftheworld,shark

populationshaveplummetedand

theresimplyaren’tenoughleftfor

fishermentofind 100 millionof

themeveryyear.Greenpeaceand

theSharkTrustnowwiselyquote

a moreconservativefigureof‘tens

ofmillions’.Thereis noneedto

exaggerate– thereasonforthedrop

innumbersis shockingenough.

So,howmanyanimalshave

beenkilledinAustralia’sfires?The

headline-grabbingfigureofonebillion

is a guesstimatebasedonumpteen

differentassumptions,fromexisting

population sizes and the impact of

MARKCARWARDINEisa frustrated and

frank conservationist.

The conservationistdiscussestheoriginsofheadline-grabbing

wildlife statistics and asks how reliable are they?

MARK CARWARDINE

uncontrollable

firestothe

animals’own

survivalinstincts.

Thefigurewas

extrapolatedfrom

a 2007WWF

reportonhow

land-clearing

affectswildlife

intheAustralian

stateofNewSouthWales.From

thoseestimates,thereport’sauthors

calculatedthatapproximately 480

millionmammals,birdsandreptiles

hadbeenaffected(butnotnecessarily

allkilled)inNewSouthWalessince

thebushfiresstartedinSeptember

2019.Asthefiressweptthroughvast

swathesofotherstates,thefigurehas

beenreviseduptoonebillion.

Buteventhatdoesn’tincludebats,

frogs,fishandotheranimalsforwhich

thereis littledata.It alsodoesn’t

includeinvertebrates:theywould

distort the figure beyond all meaning,

sincetherecouldbeonebillioninsects

ina singlehectareofforest(and,so

far,morethan 10 millionhectareshave

burnttotheground).

Inevitably,someanimalsare

surviving.Wallabies,echidnasand

othershavebeenhidingindeepand

extensivewombatburrows.Butthe

firesaresocolossalandseverethat

mostforestinhabitants– especially

less-mobilespeciessuchaskoalas

(seepage54)areprobablybeing

killedimmediately.Eventhosethatdo

surviveprobablydielater,duetoa lack

offood,waterandshelterintheburnt

landscape(birdsandlargermammals

suchaskangarooswouldnormallyflee

thearea,butthistimetherearefew

placestoescapeto).

Thetruthis thatnoonecansay

categoricallywhetheronebillion

is rightorwrong.Justthatit is

inestimable.And,asthefiresrage,

thenumbercontinuestoincrease.

Onefactis undeniable:whatever

thefinaldeathtoll,thisis a tragedy

byanyone’scount.Andit probably

representsthecatastrophicbeginning

ofa bleakfutureforAustralia’s

nativewildlife.Thesebushfiresare

exacerbatedbyclimatechange(don’t

getmestartedonAustralianPrime

MinisterScottMorrison’srefusalto

expandmeasurestocombatglobal

warming).If thisis whatit’slike

now,justimaginewhatis instore

as temperatures continue to rise.

MY WAY OF THINKING

Doug Gimesy

WHATDOYOUTHINK?If you

wanttosupportMarkinhisviews

orshoothimdowninflames,email

[email protected]

Thereisnoneed

toexaggerate–

thereasonforthe

dropinnumbers

isshocking

enough.

S

T

Numerousanimals,

suchasthiswombat,

wererescuedfromthe

firesinAustralia,but

howmanylosttheir

lives to the flames?