Fortune - USA (2020-04)

108 FORTUNE APRIL 2020

WILL IT BE ‘THE ECONOMY, STUPID’?

SINCE BILL CLINTON WON THE WHITE HOUSE IN 1992, his adviser James Carville’s famous dictum that pocketbook issues drive voting has

endured as an electoral truism. To get a sense of how voters are feeling about their finances in this year’s election, we looked state

by state at six economic indicators since President Trump took office. The numbers point to a close race: For example, Michigan—a

key battleground state and one of 11 decided by less than five percentage points in 2016—is in the bottom quartile in income growth

(3.8% annualized vs. a national average of 4.1%) but just above the mean in property value gains. Ohio’s homeownership growth (5.1%)

doubled the average while its employment figure (1.7%) lags badly. The new economic X-factor? Coronavirus fallout. —ERIK SHERMAN

THE CARTOGRAPHER

MAPS BY NICOLAS RAPP SOURCES: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (JAN. 2017–DEC. 2019); TAX FOUNDATION, COMBINED STATE AND AVERAGE

LOCAL TAX RATE (JAN. 2017–JAN. 2019); CENSUS BUREAU, HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE (Q1 2017–Q4 2019); FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY, SEA-

SONALLY ADJUSTED PROPERTY PRICE (Q1 2017–Q4 2019); BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, PERSONAL INCOME AND REAL GDP (Q1 2017–Q3 2019)

PROPERTY PRICE GROWTH

HOMEOWNERSHIP GROWTH

TAX RATE INCREASE

REAL GDP GROWTH

PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

HIGHEST 25% LOWEST 25% HIGHEST 25% LOWEST 25%

HIGHEST 25% LOWEST 25%

HIGHEST 25% LOWEST 25%

HIGHEST 25% LOWEST 25%

LOWEST 25% HIGHEST 25%

MAP.W.0420.XMIT.indd 108 FINAL 3/10/2020 3:21:58 PM