The Economist - USA (2020-03-21)

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2019† latest 2019† % % of GDP, 2019† % of GDP, 2019† latest,% year ago, bp Mar 18th on year ago

United States 2.3 Q4 2.1 2.3 2.3 Feb 1.8 3.5 Feb -2.5 -4.6 1.2 -142 -

China 6.0 Q4 6.1 6.1 5.2 Feb 2.9 3.6 Q4§ 1.5 -4.3 2.5 §§ -53.0 7.03 -4.5

Japan -0.7 Q4 -7.1 0.7 0.5 Feb 0.5 2.4 Jan 3.6 -2.6 nil -8.0 108 2.7

Britain 1.1 Q4 0.1 1.4 1.8 Jan 1.7 3.9 Dec†† -3.9 -2.1 0.6 -69.0 0.85 -10.6

Canada 1.5 Q4 0.3 1.6 2.2 Feb 2.0 5.6 Feb -2.0 -0.6 1.1 -67.0 1.45 -8.3

Euro area 1.0 Q4 0.5 1.2 1.2 Feb 1.2 7.4 Jan 3.2 -0.8 -0.2 -32.0 0.92 -4.3

Austria 1.0 Q4 1.1 1.5 2.2 Feb 1.5 4.3 Jan 1.6 0.2 0.3 -8.0 0.92 -4.3

Belgium 1.2 Q4 1.6 1.4 1.1 Feb 1.2 5.3 Jan -0.6 -1.3 0.4 -9.0 0.92 -4.3

France 0.9 Q4 -0.2 1.2 1.4 Feb 1.3 8.2 Jan -0.9 -3.2 -0.2 -64.0 0.92 -4.3

Germany 0.5 Q4 0.1 0.6 1.7 Feb 1.4 3.2 Jan 7.3 1.5 -0.2 -32.0 0.92 -4.3

Greece 0.5 Q4 -2.7 2.2 0.2 Feb 0.5 16.5 Nov -2.1 0.6 3.8 9.0 0.92 -4.3

Italy 0.1 Q4 -1.2 0.2 0.3 Feb 0.6 9.8 Jan 2.9 -2.2 2.5 4.0 0.92 -4.3

Netherlands 1.5 Q4 1.5 1.7 1.6 Feb 2.7 3.8 Jan 8.3 0.6 -0.6 -70.0 0.92 -4.3

Spain 1.8 Q4 2.1 2.0 0.7 Feb 0.8 13.7 Jan 1.0 -2.2 0.7 -44.0 0.92 -4.3

Czech Republic 1.5 Q4 1.3 2.4 3.7 Feb 2.8 2.1 Jan‡ 0.1 0.2 1.7 -18.0 25.6 -11.6

Denmark 1.7 Q4 0.8 2.1 0.8 Feb 0.8 3.7 Jan 8.3 1.6 -0.1 -29.0 6.90 -4.6

Norway 1.8 Q4 6.5 1.2 0.9 Feb 2.2 3.9 Dec‡‡ 5.4 6.5 0.9 -78.0 11.1 -22.7

Poland 3.6 Q4 1.2 4.1 4.7 Feb 2.3 5.5 Feb§ 1.1 -1.2 2.0 -91.0 4.18 -9.6

Russia 1.7 Q3 na 1.3 2.3 Feb 4.5 4.7 Jan§ 4.2 1.8 8.6 23.0 80.2 -19.6

Sweden 0.8 Q4 0.6 1.3 1.0 Feb 1.8 8.2 Feb§ 4.3 0.4 -0.1 -41.0 10.3 -9.9

Switzerland 1.5 Q4 1.3 0.8 -0.1 Feb 0.4 2.3 Feb 10.2 0.5 -0.5 -19.0 0.97 3.1

Turkey 6.0 Q4 na 0.7 12.4 Feb 15.2 13.7 Dec§ 0.2 -3.4 12.5 -361 6.48 -15.7

Australia 2.2 Q4 2.1 1.7 1.8 Q4 1.6 5.1 Feb 0.4 0.1 1.2 -76.0 1.72 -18.0

Hong Kong -2.9 Q4 -1.3 -1.2 1.4 Jan 2.9 3.7 Feb‡‡ 6.4 -1.2 1.3 -44.0 7.77 1.0

India 4.7 Q4 4.9 4.9 6.6 Feb 3.7 7.8 Feb -1.2 -3.9 6.3 -118 74.3 -7.7

Indonesia 5.0 Q4 na 5.0 3.0 Feb 2.8 5.3 Q3§ -2.7 -1.6 7.6 -7.0 15,218 -6.4

Malaysia 3.6 Q4 na 4.5 1.6 Jan 0.7 3.2 Jan§ 3.4 -3.5 3.4 -47.0 4.37 -6.6

Pakistan 3.3 2019** na 3.3 12.4 Feb 9.4 5.8 2018 -2.6 -8.9 10.4 ††† -269 159 -12.1

Philippines 6.4 Q4 9.1 5.9 2.6 Feb 2.5 5.3 Q1§ -0.2 -3.6 4.9 -131 51.0 3.1

Singapore 1.0 Q4 0.6 0.7 0.8 Jan 0.6 2.3 Q4 17.0 -0.1 1.6 -55.0 1.45 -6.9

South Korea 2.3 Q4 5.1 2.0 1.1 Feb 0.4 4.1 Feb§ 3.7 -0.3 1.5 -49.0 1,246 -9.1

Taiwan 3.3 Q4 7.8 2.7 -0.2 Feb 0.6 3.7 Jan 11.6 -0.9 0.6 -21.0 30.3 1.9

Thailand 1.6 Q4 1.0 2.4 0.7 Feb 0.7 1.1 Jan§ 8.1 -1.9 1.3 -90.0 32.5 -2.4

Argentina -1.7 Q3 3.8 -2.7 50.3 Feb‡ 53.5 9.7 Q3§ -1.6 -3.8 na -464 63.3 -37.1

Brazil 1.7 Q4 2.0 1.1 4.0 Feb 3.7 11.2 Jan§‡‡ -2.7 -5.9 4.7 -222 5.12 -25.6

Chile -2.1 Q4 -15.5 1.2 3.9 Feb 2.3 7.4 Jan§‡‡ -3.0 -2.8 2.9 -114 866 -22.9

Colombia 3.4 Q4 1.9 3.3 3.7 Feb 3.5 13.0 Jan§ -4.6 -2.3 8.8 231 4,144 -25.1

Mexico -0.5 Q4 -0.5 -0.1 3.7 Feb 3.6 3.7 Jan nil -1.6 8.3 15.0 23.7 -19.5

Peru 1.8 Q4 0.6 2.2 1.9 Feb 2.1 7.4 Jan§ -1.5 -1.6 4.7 -60.0 3.57 -7.6

Egypt 5.7 Q3 na 5.6 5.3 Feb 9.2 8.0 Q4§ -0.7 -8.0 na nil 15.8 10.0

Israel 3.7 Q4 4.2 3.5 0.1 Feb 0.8 3.4 Feb 2.2 -3.7 1.4 -63.0 3.76 -4.3

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na 0.3 0.4 Jan -1.2 5.5 Q3 4.5 -5.6 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -0.5 Q4 -1.4 0.2 4.5 Feb 4.1 29.1 Q4§ -3.8 -6.4 11.3 255 17.1 -15.6

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

76 The EconomistMarch 21st 2020

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Mar 10th Mar 17th* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 109.1 105.2 -5.6 -5.4

Food 95.3 91.8 -6.9 -0.8

Industrials

All 121.9 117.7 -4.6 -8.5

Non-foodagriculturals 94.2 87.8 -13.0 -22.1

Metals 130.2 126.6 -2.7 -5.2

SterlingIndex

Allitems 128.7 133.7 2.5 4.4

EuroIndex

Allitems 106.6 106.4 -6.9 -2.2

Gold

$ peroz 1,654.2 1,539.4 -3.9 17.8

Brent

$ perbarrel 36.8 29.7 -48.1 -56.1

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Mar 18th week 2019 Mar 18th week 2019

United States S&P 500 2,398.1 -12.5 -25.8

United States NAScomp 6,989.8 -12.1 -22.1

China Shanghai Comp 2,728.8 -8.1 -10.5

China Shenzhen Comp 1,678.3 -9.7 -2.6

Japan Nikkei 225 16,726.6 -13.9 -29.3

Japan Topix 1,270.8 -8.3 -26.2

Britain FTSE 100 5,080.6 -13.5 -32.6

Canada S&P TSX 11,721.4 -17.9 -31.3

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 2,385.8 -17.9 -36.3

France CAC 40 3,754.8 -18.6 -37.2

Germany DAX* 8,441.7 -19.1 -36.3

Italy FTSE/MIB 15,120.5 -15.7 -35.7

Netherlands AEX 404.1 -16.5 -33.2

Spain IBEX 35 6,274.8 -15.6 -34.3

Poland WIG 39,313.8 -7.6 -32.0

Russia RTS, $ terms 832.3 -23.4 -46.3

Switzerland SMI 8,338.7 -8.9 -21.5

Tu r ke y BIST 85,576.6 -15.2 -25.2

Australia All Ord. 4,998.8 -13.7 -26.5

Hong Kong Hang Seng 22,291.8 -11.7 -20.9

India BSE 28,869.5 -19.1 -30.0

Indonesia IDX 4,330.7 -16.0 -31.3

Malaysia KLSE 1,239.0 -14.2 -22.0

Pakistan KSE 30,416.1 -19.3 -25.3

Singapore STI 2,425.6 -12.9 -24.7

South Korea KOSPI 1,591.2 -16.6 -27.6

Taiwan TWI 9,218.7 -15.4 -23.2

Thailand SET 1,048.2 -16.1 -33.7

Argentina MERV 22,087.1 -29.7 -47.0

Brazil BVSP 66,894.9 -21.5 -42.2

Mexico IPC 35,532.7 -8.1 -18.4

Egypt EGX 30 8,756.7 -21.8 -37.3

Israel TA-125 1,113.2 -12.6 -31.1

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 6,154.9 -6.1 -26.6

South Africa JSE AS 38,604.9 -21.3 -32.4

World, dev'd MSCI 1,682.3 -14.7 -28.7

Emerging markets MSCI 787.8 -16.8 -29.3

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 280 141

High-yield 855 449

Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed

Income Research. *Total return index.

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