Financial Times Europe - 08.08.2019

2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday8 August 2019

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MARTIN ARNOLD— FRANKFURT SARAH PROVAN— LONDON

Industrial production inGermany dropped by a larger-than-expected 1.5 per cent month on month in June, compounding fears that Europe’s largest economy might be heading for its first recession in more than six years. Analysts polled by Reuters had esti- mated output would fall 0.4 per cent during the month compared with May. The fall meant that industrial production was 5.2 per cent lower than a year ago, Germany’s statistics office said. Carsten Brzeski, ING chief economist

for Germany, characterised the figures as “devastating, with no silver lining”. After a brief slowdown last year, the German economy rebounded in the first three months of 2019. But many econo- mists, including those at the Bundes- bank, Germany’s central bank,expect next week’sgross domestic product figures to show the economy shrank again in the three months to June. “We should prepare for contraction in the German economy in the second quarter, unless exports bring an unex- pected surprise on Friday,” Mr Brzeski said. Pressure on the carmaking industry and an intensifying trade war between the US and China have turned Germany from the powerhouse of the eurozone to one of its weakest performing members. The manufacturing sector, histori-

cally the engine of German growth, has become its main weakness as the car industry continues to grapple with the shift away from diesel cars to electric models and exporters face a slowdown in orders from China. The slowdown in industrial output came across the board,from energy to consumer goods. The only area to grow was construction, by a meagre 0.3 per cent after two months of decline. “The crisis in the automotive sector is continuing unabated,” said Ralph

Solveen, deputy head of economic research at Commerzbank. “The main reason for this weakness is now likely to be significantly weaker foreign demand. This all points to the fact that manufacturing will remain the weak spot of the German economy.” Yesterday’s figures came a day after factory ordersrose unexpectedly, driven by an increase in demand from outside the eurozone. While those figures may have offered a glimmer of hope for Europe’s economic powerhouse, analysts said they were buoyed by a few exceptionally large orders and new orders have dropped an average of 0.7 per cent every month this year. June’s industrial production decline “kills off any hopes that the strong orders data published yesterday marked the beginning of a recovery”,

said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. “Busi- ness surveys uniformly point to a further contraction in July, so things look set to get worse rather than better.” Other data published this week included a downward revision inserv- ices figuresthat showed the sector grew at a slower rate in July than previously thought, fuelling fears that the down- turn in Germany’s export-focused manufacturing industry is spreading to its domestic-focused services sector. “The continued plunge in production is scary,” said Alexander Krueger, economist at Bankhaus Lampe. “The longer this continues, the more likely it is that other sectors of the economy will be dragged into this.” The German government expects the economy to grow 0.5 per cent this year.

Recession concerns

German industrial output data disappoint

June figures raise fears the

largest eurozone economy is heading for contraction

TOM HANCOCK— SHANGHAI

TheNew Development Bank, a lender owned by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is aiming to almost double its lending this year and shift its loan book from the US dollar to emphasise lending in local currencies. The NDB, or Brics bank as it isother- wise known, has approved more than $9bn in loans in its member countries after being founded four years ago. It is seen as a challenger to established lenders such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and IMF. The bank plans to increase its loan book to $16bn this year. So far it has mainly relied on its dollar paid-in capital for funding but, in the future, “50 per cent [of projects] should be local currency financed”, KV Kamath, the bank’s president, said in an interview. The bank, based in Shanghai, issued a second Rmb3tn ($426bn) Chinese currency bond this year, and after it re- ceived a double A plus rating from Fitch and S&P Global last August, but also plans to tap bond markets in the US, according to a person familiar with its plans. “We will raise dollars, we will raise euros, but at the same time there will be a significant reliance on local currencies,” Mr Kamath said. That would allow the bank to move from loans denominated in dollars. Lending so far has mostly gone back to its founder countries, which have a collective credit rating of triple B minus, and so can borrow at lower rates though the higher rated bank. “It’s basically financial engineering,” pointed out Mr Kamath. Loans approved mainly cover transport, energy and water management projects, such as $620m for the construction of an airport in northern China, $350m for rural roads in India’s Bihar and $320m for water sanitation projects on Russia’s Volga river. This year the bank announced a $180m loan to South African power company Eskom to fund renewable energy projects and a $300m loan for a

greenhouse gas reduction project in the country. The bank expects to account for 11 per cent of South African infrastructure funding by 2021. But the bank has only disbursed 7 per cent of the loans it has approved, according to its latest annual report. That is a “warning sign it may be rush- ing projects to approval without suffi- cient preparation”, said Chris Hum- phrey, a development finance resear- cher at the Overseas Development Insti- tute in London. However, the move to lend more in local currencies should be welcomed, as “too many developing countries borrow excessively in foreign currency, which leads to dangerous FX risk exposure”, he added. Development lenders such as the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have also tried to increase local currency lending to reduce foreign exchange

risks, but have run into difficulties rais- ing funds in local capital markets. The bank will not be able to move away from dollars entirely. “There’s a constraint that you can’t disrupt the US dollar system. If you did [the US] would find a way to go after you,” said a person close to the bank. The bank has fewer than 200 staff and had not appointed a chief economist until last month, when China’s David Daokui Li was hired. It has attempted to distinguish itself from other development banks by emphasising “sustaina- ble development” rather than poverty alleviation as its main goal. Its lending is still small relative to organisations such as the Asian Devel- opment Bank, which approved $21.6bn in loans and grants last year. But its loan book is slightly larger than that of the higher profile China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was established around the same time.

“We want to aim at doing a project in 90-180 days. We have demonstrated over the past two years that it is possible to do that without sacrificing quality,” said Mr Kamath. The bank’s project approval times are about one-third of those taken by other big development lenders, according to a staff member. The five countries have equal shares in the bank. Speed is made possible as the bank works closely with borrower countries’ own development banks and agencies and tends to use local standards rather than international ones in terms of social and environmental safeguards, said Hongying Wang of Canada’s Uni- versity of Waterloo, who has studied the bank. “This model could potentially offer greater legitimacy and efficiency. It could also increase the social and environmental risks of investment,” she added.

Infrastructure.Finance challenger

Brics lender aims to shift from dollar funding

New Development Bank plans

to emphasise local currencies

and double loan book to $16bn

Forward step: a couple cross a stream near a defunct power station in Soweto, South Africa. The country’s electricity infrastructure is in need of investment Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters

‘We will raise dollars,

we will raise euros, but at

the same time there

will be a significant

reliance on local

currencies’

KV Kamath, president

HANNAH ROBERTS— ROME

The Italian Senate has given its approval to a trans-Alpine high-speed rail link with France, amid deepening divisions between Italy’s fractious coalition partners over the project.

The anti-establishment Five Star move- ment, which has links to environmental groups, has long opposed the freight rail line, which would run for 270km between Turin and Lyon, while coalition partners the League support it. Yesterday, a motion in the Senate by Five Star to block the project, known as the TAV, failed when the League voted with the opposition in favour of comple- tion of the line. Reopening negotiations on the rail project, which was started almost two decades ago, was part of the coalition contract agreed between Five Star and the populist League last year. A cost-benefit analysis of the project led by a ministry of transport panel in February found that the costs out- weighed thegains by €7bn.

But in a U-turn last month Giuseppe Conte, prime minister, said that increased funding from the EU meant that stopping work would cost more than completing the line. After the votes, pressure group No TAV — which opposes the line — said it would continue the battle in “the valley of resistance”. They warned that the League’s Matteo Salvini “would learn what happens if he tried to turn a hostile territory into a building site”. The coalition parties have been increasingly at odds in recent weeks over tax cuts proposed by the League, greater regional autonomy and Five Star’s decision to back a mainstream German candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, to become president of the Euro- pean Commission. Mr Salvini warned before the vote that if TAV were blocked he would consider early elections. Opposition MPs claimed that the ten- sionsshowed the coalition’s days were numbered. “The government’s majority no longer exists,” said Andrea Marcucci, a senator for the Democratic party.

Turin-Lyon line

Italy coalition tensions rise as

Five Star fails to halt rail link

KERIN HOPE— ATHENS

Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s new centre-right prime minister, faces his first political testover his decision to replace the head of the independent competition authority.

Greek lawmakers will votetoday on a legislative package that would lead to Vassiliki Thanou’s dismissal. The legislation bans formerminis- ters, senior civil servants and government advisers from being appointed to regulatory positions for five years after leaving office. Ms Thanou is the only one among 22 heads of Greek regulatory bodies who faces dismissal. The government arguedyesterday that the retired senior judge and legal adviser to Alexis Tsipras, the former prime minister,could not run an independent regulatory body because of her close ties to hisadministration. Mr Mitsotakis, whoseNew Democ- racy partywon a sweeping election victory over Mr Tsipras’s Syrizalast month, said that Ms Thanou should

leave office with immediate effect. Dur- ing the election campaign Mr Mitsotakis promisedhis government would “depo- liticise” the public administration by ending a tradition of awarding senior administrative jobs to party loyalists on political criteria. The proposal provoked a heated debate in parliament, with Syriza lawmakers questioning whether it was legally acceptable for such a decision to be applied retroactively. Ms Thanou served briefly as Greece’s first woman prime minister in 2015, heading a caretaker government before a national election. She was appointed to run the competition authority in January and gave up her position as the premier’s legal adviser to serve a five- year term. Her appointment was announced by Mr Tsipras’s office and ratified by parliament. Ms Thanou insisted she would not quit. “I’m a technocrat and I have never been a member of a political party,” she said. “I consider this process illegal... I have been personally targeted.”

Parliamentary vote

Greek PM flexes muscles in

fight to oust competition chief

MAX SEDDON— MOSCOW ROMAN OLEARCHYK— KIEV

Russia president Vladimir Putin and his Ukraine counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky have held talks a day after four Ukrainian soldiers were killed in fresh clashes with Russia-backed sepa- ratists in eastern Ukraine.

Mr Zelenskyyesterdaysaid he had called Mr Putin immediately after the fighting to tell him: “This does not bring us closer to peace.” He had asked Mr Putin “to influence the other side so that they stop killing our people”. The five-year war in two eastern Ukraine provinces is a big test for Mr Zelenskyafter he won anelection land- slidein April. A comedian who came to fame playing the president on televi- sion, Mr Zelensky made a ceasefire one of the central elements of his election campaign. But the Kremlin has continued to ratchet up pressure on Mr Zelensky since he took office in May. Mr Putin expanded a plan togive out Russian passportsto residents of the conflict-hit, Russian-speaking Donbass area of eastern Ukraine, while talks over a possible prisoner exchange have stalled. The Kremlin said Mr Putin had told

Mr Zelensky that “de-escalating the conflict foremost requires stopping all further shelling of residential areas in the Donbass by Ukrainian troops, which is creating civilian casualties”. The phone callyesterday was the second between the two leaders since Mr Zelen- sky became president. Mr Putin pushed Kiev to give the breakaway areas — which Russia claims not to control despite abundant evi- dence to the contrary — special status under a potential peace deal, although this would be politically unpalatable in Ukraine. While the 2015 Minsk agree- ments aimed at freezing the conflict have broken down, both Russia and Ukraine have discussed holding further peace talks under the so-called Nor- mandy format, which includes France and Germany. Speaking alongside Mr Zelensky at the briefing, Ruslan Khomchak, armed forces chief, said the four Ukrainian fatalities on Tuesday resulted from a rocket-propelled grenade attack. The latest flare-up increases the death toll in a conflict that has claimed more than 13,000 combatant and civilian lives, making it the bloodiest on the European continent since the Balkan wars and the longest since the second world war. Moscow denies claims by Kiev and its western backers that it fomented the conflict after annexing the Crimean peninsula in 2014. Commenting on Tuesday’s killings, Kurt Volker, the US special envoy to Ukraine, wrote on Twitter: “Extremely disappointed with new ceasefire violations, leading to four Ukrainian soldiers killed by Russian-led forces — especially at a time when the new Ukrainian president is making gestures for peace.”

Five-year war

Zelensky talks

to Putin after

Ukrainian

troops killed

in clashes

‘Extremely disappointed

with ceasefire violations, leading to four killed’

Kurt Volker, US special envoy

Germany has turned from

the powerhouse of the eurozone into one of its

weakest performers

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Milano n. 296 del 08/05/08 - Poste Italiane SpA-Sped. in Abb.Post.DL. 353/2003 (conv. L. 27/02/2004-n.46) art. 1

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