Thursday8 August 2019 ★ † FINANCIAL TIMES 9

Opinion

A

t some stage during this

century, perhaps near its

midpoint, white people

might no longer amount to

an absolute majority of the

US population. Whether or not they

shouldmind, enough do to disturb the

politics of the republic and at times its

very peace.

A feeling of racial dispossession

animated at least the fringes of the

Tea Party movement a decade ago.

There is no accounting for the political

rise of President Donald Trump without

some reference to the same anxieties.

From what we know, and with due

caution in asserting cause and effect,

the “replacement” of his race aggrieved

the man whomurdered 22 people

in El Paso, Texas, on Saturday.

How the US deals with its diversifica-

tion is of weight to the rest of the west,

because other countries, if not to the

same extent, nor at the same pace, will

follow. It matters, then, if Americans

succumb to despondency — to a sense

that turmoil is the way of the future.

The balance to be struck here is pre-

carious. The US has to avoid the com-

forting pretence that El Paso was an iso-

lated atrocity. It has to takewhite

nationalismmore seriously than it has

done. But it has to do so without grant-

ing its core pessimism: that a plural soci-

ety is by definition a fractious one. To

the contrary, the transition to “majori-

ty-minority” status need not be such a

defining event, nor one attended by ter-

rible social rupture.

What it means to be white is liable to

change. It has changed before. During

and immediately after the mass migra-

tions from Catholic and Orthodox

Europe in the 19th century, the Irish,

Italians and Slavs were held by nativists

to be so alien as to constitute a separate

ethnic, if not racial, group.

As far back as 1751, in hisObservations

Concerning the Increase of Mankind,

Benjamin Franklin abhorred the arrival

of Germans (“Palatine boors”), whom

he contrasted with English descendants

not just in custom but also in “complex-

ion”. It was only over time, often in

response to yet other immigrant groups,

that these variegated Europeans

“became” white. Consider how some

who now fear for “Judeo-Christian”

cultureonce regarded the people

described in the first half of that term.

Just as the definition of a “real” Amer-

ican widened from those of English

descent to those of European descent,

it has the potential to widen again. The

new test of whether someone is In or Out

might be whether they speak English

as a first language, or identify with

some kind of Christian denomination.

That people fracture along the lines of

language and religion rather than of

colour is no great cause for joy. It would

certainly not meet the republican ideal

of one’s citizenship being the only iden-

tity that matters. But what it would do is

confirm how plastic is our understand-

ing of who belongs and who does not.

Demographic projections, in which a

line marked White and a line marked

Non-White cross over at some point, do

not capture this. The idea of one inter-

nally coherent group up against some

equally monolithic “other” does not

describe the history of the US. The ten-

sions of the future are likely to be com-

plex and cross-cutting.

Even the projections themselves rely

on a certain crudity. In the Census

Bureau data of 2018, it is “non-Hispanic

whites” who fall below 50 per cent of the

US population by mid-century. Scholars

worry about the difficulty of categoris-

ing a person who has one white and one

Hispanic parent, to say nothing of other

permutations. CompareGeorge P Bush,

nephew of a president, son of a Mexican-

American mother, with a non-English-

speaking new arrival from, say, Russia.

Who is “white” here? At some point, the

usefulness of such projections struggles

to keep up with their power to unsettle.

If a person in 1945 were given sight of

the west in 2019, what would strike

them — the social dislocation brought

about by racial variety or, actually, how

little of it there has been given the scale

of the change?

British readers will be familiar with

the “Enoch was right” line of thought.

Enoch Powell, a Tory minister who

warned in the 1960s against postcolo-

nial migration, was not right. Britain

became a multiracial society — not with-

out strife, but certainly without “rivers

of blood”. The same is true in much of

the west. Think of white Australia’s

transformation into what we see in

modern Perth or Sydney.

The US is different in all sorts of

respects. It has a unique history and

offers unique ease of access to the means

of violence. But its challenge is one that

other open democracies will face in

their own ways. It must resist racial

pessimism while raising its vigilance to

those who strive to vindicate it.

[email protected]

The US has to take

white nationalism more

seriously but without

granting its core pessimism

A plural society need not be a fractious one

These are creative works that, even if

they borrowed aspects from others,

turned them into something quite new.

Only looked at narrowly, broken into lit-

tle pieces, did they copy.

A striking aspect of these cases is that

no one claims that the first work’s popu-

larity suffered as a result of the second.

Indeed, arecent studyof US charts

found that sales of sampled works

tended to rise, especially if the originals

were old and from a different genre. The

impact of sampling or the magpie use of

beats and hooks is unlike that of whole-

sale file-sharing.

All of this suggests that courts should

take a broader view of music copyright

than they recently have. The fair use

exemption for works that are trans-

formative needs to be applied more gen-

erously if the entertainment industry is

not to become a vast tournament of tiny

infringement claims. When lawyers are

becoming more creative than writers,

something is going wrong.

[email protected]

Lines”, which a US appeals courtagreed

last yearhad taken its feel (although dif-

fering in melody, harmony and rhythm)

from Marvin Gaye’s 1977 “Got To Give

it Up”. The Gaye family was awarded

$5m and half of future royalties.

This is a terrible precedent that

allowed the family, as Judge Jacqueline

Nguyen wrote in herdissenting opinion,

“to accomplish what no one has before:

copyright a musical style”. One profes-

sor observedthat“if you’re not influ-

enced by Marvin Gaye, there must be

something wrong with you”, and that

there is nothing wrong in learning from

genius and building on it.

At a minimum, the writers are being

overcharged for their debts to history.

Half of the “Blurred Lines” royalties is

absurdly inflated and even a 22.5 per

cent levy on “Dark Horse” for one ele-

ment defies common sense — at such

valuations, the songs are worth less than

the sum of their parts.

The broader principle is that, taken as

a whole, both are substantially different

from the songs of which they fell foul.

a singer who employs (or is employed

by) Mr Martin or Lukasz Gottwald, the

US co-producer and co-writer of “Dark

Horse” alsoknown as Dr Luke, is not

seeking pure originality.

But it also means that such songs can

be reverse engineered into their compo-

nents, and each compared with all that

went before. So it proved with “Dark

Horse”, which is little like “Joyful Noise”,

the song on which it infringed, except

for one element — an eight noteostinato

beat. This led the jury to hand the writ-

ers of “Joyful Noise” 22.5 per cent of the

“Dark Horse” profits.

The most egregious example of a song

getting into expensive trouble over a

single element was Robin Thicke and

Pharrell Williams’ 2013 hit “Blurred

ment lawyers on even tiny snatches of

melody or beats in hit songs, with writ-

ers trying to nab a share of what they

inspired more profitably in others.

If that were how classical music

worked, Dvorak would have been in

trouble for so admiring Wagner thathe

followedthe “great little man” around

Prague in 1863 andwrote works influ-

enced by him and other composers.

Richard Strauss might also have heard

from Verdi’s estate for throwing a per-

fect pastiche of an Italian tenor aria into

Der Rosenkavalier.

In some ways, courts are responding

to the way that many pop hits are now

created, with teams of writers and pro-

ducers taking components of melody,

harmony and hooks and assembling

them into products for singers including

Ms Perry. The modern incarnation of

Tin Pan Alley was pioneered by the

Swedish musician Max Martin, who co-

produced and co-wrote “Dark Horse”.

The assembly method of songwriting

has some similarities to sampling,

which literally involves copying parts.

The ECJ ruled in the Kraftwerk case that

permission is required for any sample,

although it does not count as a repro-

duction if it is modified so much that

it is unrecognisable. This fits with a

US ruling in 2016on a horn fragment

in Madonna’s 1990 song “Vogue”.

No one should be surprised that a lot

of hits constructed in this manner

sound rather similar. Like any company

that calls in a management consultancy

to mimic what it has done for others,

T

he musical magpie is under

threat. Legal judgments in

both the US and Europe last

week have made it harder

for songwriters and produc-

ers to adopt samples, tunes or even

moods from other people’s music in cre-

ating their own.

Katy Perry and her team of songwrit-

ers were ordered by a US jury to pay

$2.8m in damagesfor copying part of an

11-year-old Christian rap song in her

2013 hit “Dark Horse”. Meanwhile, the

pioneering German electronic band

Kraftwerkwon a long-running casein

the European Court of Justice over the

sampling of a two-second rhythm from

their 1977 track “Metall auf Metall”.

The balance of freedom of artistic

expression versus copyright protection

has swung heavily to the latter, after the

free-for-all era of musical copying and

sampling in the early 2000s. The old

philosophy was that creative property is

theft; today’s is that composers control

each note they write.

Singers and writers deserve protec-

tion but the trajectory of legal cases,

particularly in the US, is worrying. It is

turning into open season for entertain-

Music is more

than the sum

of its parts

The assembly method of

songwriting has similarities

to sampling, which literally

involves copying sections

BUSINESS

John

Gapper

T

he great Americansatirist

and mathematician Tom

Lehrer introduced a live

recording of his 1965 song

“Send the Marines” with

the remark: “It has been a nervous year,

and people have begun to feel like a

Christian Scientist with appendicitis.”

The same could be said of policymakers

in Berlin in 2019, who are staring at an

exceedingly unpleasant dilemma. It is to

no small degree of their own making.

A nasty spat has erupted over Ger-

many’s refusal to join a US-led naval

mission to protect theStrait of Hormuz,

one of the world’s most important oil

trading waterways. Is Germanybeing

prudent — or is it an unreliable ally?

Despite theirattempts to salvage the

Iran nuclear deal of 2015, from which

President Donald Trump unilaterally

withdrew the US last year, German dip-

lomats are fully aware of Iran’s nefarious

role in destabilising the Middle East and

supporting Islamist terrorism.

Now, Tehran has broken interna-

tional maritime law with acts of state

piracy, seizing aBritish tankerand har-

assing other ships moving through the

narrow shipping lane that links the Per-

sian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Ara-

bian Sea. As a result, the oil price is spik-

ing; so are insurance premiums. Iran is

clearly attempting to multilateralise its

conflict with the US, pulling in Europe.

The Trump administration’s whip-

sawing policies have stoked tensions

in the Gulf: first the withdrawal from

the deal, then a policy of “maximum

pressure” with crippling sanctions and

demands amounting to terms of surren-

der. Threats of military actionalternate

with offers of talks, yet there is no sign of

a plan for diplomacy. In June, Mr Trump

ordered air strikes and then immedi-

ately reversed. No wonder the Iranians

are unimpressed and the Germans fear

being dragged into a shooting war.

American efforts to shame Germany

into joining the mission in the Gulf

haven’t exactly helped. When the par-

liamentary ombudsman for the German

armed forces said the German navy

might not have enough available ships,

theUS Embassy in Berlin wrote on Twit-

ter: “Suggestion: the largest economy

in Europe could buy more ships?” Other

European countries have navies too,

yet it is only Germany that is being

singled out.

So now even the staunchest transat-

lanticists in Berlin are resolutely deaf to

the call from Washington. Foreign min-

ister Heiko Maas says Germany will

seek to rope in other European states

(notably France) for an EU observer

mission that would collect information

about attacks, but not be able to escort

ships or protect them militarily.

A toothless naval mission would be a

terrible idea. At stake for Germany is its

own national interest, and the respect

and solidarity of itsneighbours. Ger-

many relies less than France or the UK

on the shipping route through the Strait,

because it gets its own energy imports

mostly from Russia and Norway. Yet, as

the world’s third largest exporting

nation and one of the most globalised

economies, it needsunhindered access

to international shipping lanes. Berlin

might also want to call on its neighbours

for help in the future; a German and a

Norwegian tanker were shot at off the

Iranian coast in June.

Germany’s posturing as a self-right-

eous pacifist is unconvincing. It has

been participating in the robust EU

naval antipiracy mission, Atalanta, off

the Horn of Africa for years. The Iranian

navy is a tougher adversary than Somali

pirates. But a European show of calm

determination, co-ordinated with the

US-led effort, to prevent Tehran from

playing one against the other could have

a real deterrent effect.

It would show Iran that Europe’s

“good cops” have red lines too. That, in

turn, might make offers of diplomatic

de-escalation more effective than they

are now. And it would bolster Europe’s

credibility in the attempt to stand up to

the Trump administration’s bullying.

That is the prudent course of action.

The writer is the Robert Bosch Senior

Fellow at the Brookings Institution

Germany should

lead a European

naval mission

in the Gulf

Showing Iran that Europe’s

‘good cops’ have red lines

too could have a real

deterrent effect

Constanze

Stelzenmüller

AMERICA

Janan

Ganesh

T

heresa May made a classic

negotiating mistake by

engaging inBrexittalks

with the EU before agreeing

a position with her own

side. Her successor as UK prime minis-

ter, Boris Johnson, is now making the

opposite mistake by refusing to talk to

the Europeans until they concede on his

major demand — dropping the North-

ern Ireland “backstop” to prevent a

hard border in Ireland. He is likely to

incur a similarly disastrous outcome.

Setting preconditions to a negotiation

in this way is almost always an error. Mr

Johnson will either face a humiliating

climbdownor the prospect of no negoti-

ations taking place at all before the

deadline of October 31.

He should learn from the experience

of his predecessor John Major, who

was forced to drop his demand that

the IRA decommission its weapons

before entering negotiations.The 1994

IRA ceasefirewas not “permanent”, as

the government had hoped, and the

British did not want to find themselves

negotiating in the face of the threat of

renewed violence. They therefore

demandedthat the IRA decommission

all its weapons before republicans could

join the negotiations. They were

refused. The government revised the

demand down to the majority of its

weapons, but again they were snubbed.

Patrick Mayhew, the Northern Ire-

land secretary, made a speechin which

he reduced the demand to “the actual

decommissioning of some arms”, which

became known as “Washington Three”,

the third condition for Sinn Féin’s par-

ticipation. This too was rejected and in

1996 the IRAreturned to violence.

The issue of the decommissioning of

weapons continued to dog the talks for

more than a decade but, in the end, the

British government had to accept, on

the basis of a formula proposed by US

senator George Mitchell, that Sinn Féin

could have a seat at the table without

giving up a single weapon. The alter-

native was no peace negotiations.

Mr Johnson has set himself a

similar trap, even if with a very different

sort of negotiating partner. There is no

chance of the EU dropping the backstop

as a precondition for meeting him, even

if they were prepared to discuss it face

to face. And, as long as the British

government does not put forward a

convincing alternative to deal with the

threat posed to the Good Friday Agree-

ment by Britain leaving the single mar-

ket and the customs union and thereby

recreating a hard border, the EU cannot

back down.

The Brexiter refrain of “technology”

does not address the question, let alone

answer it. It is true that when, and if, the

technology is invented, it could speed

the passage of a lorry across the border,

but that is not the problem. The prob-

lem is that a hard border again raises the

issue of identity which was resolved by

the Good Friday Agreement. Putting

cameras and gates at or near the border

makes that worse. The installations will

become targets for attack by dissident

republicans.We will be back where we

started.

But perhaps Mr Johnson’s aim is not to

get into a negotiation at all, even though

he assures us there is only a one in a mil-

lion chance of ano-deal Brexit. Perhaps

he is trying to set up a situation where he

can blame the EU for refusing to negoti-

ate on the backstop, and a Remainer

majority in the House of Commons for

trying to block him from leaving the EU

without a deal, and then call an election.

Mr Johnson’s most influential adviser

and the man who led the Leave cam-

paign,Dominic Cummings, appears to

have given the game away. He says the

prime minister could call an election

before October 31 but hold it after that

date, while in the meantime doing noth-

ing to stop the UK leaving the EU on

Halloween. That would be to tear up

constitutional convention.

The response from the Brexiters is

that convention doesn’t matter. But that

works both ways. The UK does not have

a written constitution, but our system

depends on political leaders respecting

unwritten rules.If the Tory radicals rip

up the conventions, so can the opposi-

tion. The clear view of the civil service,

as I understand it,is that a caretaker

government, having been defeated in a

confidence vote in parliament and hold-

ing an election, is not permitted to

undertake controversial political acts

during that period. If Mr Johnson were

to press ahead,he would beplunging the

country into a constitutional crisis.

Nor would that be the only crisis. Mr

Johnson’s Europe adviserwent to Brus-

sels last week to ask when negotiations

on a new relationship could start again

after a no-deal Brexit. The answer: if the

UK has crashed out and failed to pay its

dues, it could be a very long time indeed.

The country could be in purgatory for as

long as a decade with no new relation-

ship with the EU, having to kowtow to

President Donald Trump’s terms for an

unfavourable trade deal with the US.

What starts as a negotiating mis-step

could result in a crisis on a scale we have

not faced for 80 years.

The writer was chief British negotiator on

Northern Ireland 1997-

There is no chance

of the EU dropping the

backstop as a condition

for meeting him

Johnson has set himself a trap on the Irish border

Jonathan

Powell

Efi Chalikopoulou

              

РЕ

ЛИ

ЗЗwas forced to drop his demand thatwas forced to drop his demand that

of his predecessor John Major, whoof his predecessor John Major, whoППО

He should learn from the experience

О

He should learn from the experience

of his predecessor John Major, whoof his predecessor John Major, whoО

He should learn from the experienceHe should learn from the experienceДД

of his predecessor John Major, who

Д

of his predecessor John Major, who

He should learn from the experienceHe should learn from the experienceГГО

deadline of October 31.

О

deadline of October 31.

He should learn from the experienceHe should learn from the experienceО

deadline of October 31.deadline of October 31.ТТО

ations taking place at all before the

О

ations taking place at all before the

deadline of October 31.deadline of October 31.О

ations taking place at all before theations taking place at all before theations taking place at all before theations taking place at all before theВВИИ

Л

climbdown

Л

climbdowno

Л

o

ations taking place at all before theations taking place at all before theЛ

ooААr the prospect of no negoti-Аr the prospect of no negoti-

Г

Johnson will either face a humiliating

Г

Johnson will either face a humiliating

r the prospect of no negoti-r the prospect of no negoti-Г

Johnson will either face a humiliatingJohnson will either face a humiliatingРРУ

in this way is almost always an error. Mr

У

in this way is almost always an error. Mr

Johnson will either face a humiliatingJohnson will either face a humiliatingУП

in this way is almost always an error. Mr

П

in this way is almost always an error. Mr

Johnson will either face a humiliatingJohnson will either face a humiliatingП

in this way is almost always an error. Mrin this way is almost always an error. MrППА

Setting preconditions to a negotiation

А

Setting preconditions to a negotiation

in this way is almost always an error. Mrin this way is almost always an error. MrА

"What's

He should learn from the experience

"What's

He should learn from the experience

of his predecessor John Major, who

"What's

of his predecessor John Major, who

was forced to drop his demand thatwas forced to drop his demand that"What's

News"

ations taking place at all before the

News"

ations taking place at all before the

deadline of October 31.deadline of October 31.News"

He should learn from the experience

News"

He should learn from the experience

VK.COM/WSNWS

ations taking place at all before the

VK.COM/WSNWS

ations taking place at all before the

deadline of October 31.

VK.COM/WSNWS

deadline of October 31.

He should learn from the experience

VK.COM/WSNWS

He should learn from the experience

of his predecessor John Major, who

VK.COM/WSNWS

of his predecessor John Major, who

was forced to drop his demand that

VK.COM/WSNWS

was forced to drop his demand that

the IRA decommission its weaponsthe IRA decommission its weaponsVK.COM/WSNWS