The Economist UK - 10.08.2019

The EconomistAugust 10th 2019 45

1

O

n the afternoonof July 31st young-

sters in dozens of Chinese cities raced

to government offices, pursuing a precious

commodity. Earlier that day the authorities

had announced that from midnight they

would no longer issue the passes that allow

mainland tourists to visit Taiwan indepen-

dently, without having to join a tour. A 25-

year-old newlywed from the eastern prov-

ince of Zhejiang, who uses the nickname

Yuyi, says she got a permit just before the

cut-off. Now she wonders whether, given

rising tensions between China and Taiwan,

it might be wiser to junk the September get-

away on the island that she and her hus-

band have been planning.

China has long used carrots and sticks

to persuade Taiwan’s people to accept its

demand for “peaceful reunification”. But

the sudden suspension of the solo-travel

programme, launched eight years ago, was

still a surprise. A spokesperson for China’s

government blamed Taiwan’s ruling

Democratic Progressive Party (dpp), which

abhors the idea of unification. He said it

had “incited hostility towards the main-

land”. Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president, re-

torted that China had made “a big strategic

mistake” and that its decision would irk

both mainlanders and Taiwanese.

Visitors from China accounted for just

over one-quarter of Taiwan’s tourist arriv-

als in the first half of this year. About 40%

of them were individual travellers. Taiwan-

ese travel agents predict that the Chinese

government’s new policy could cut visitor

numbers by up to 700,000 over the next six

months, costing the tourism industry

around $900m in revenue. Barclays, a

bank, says the policy could cost Taiwan

sums equal to 0.2% of gdp(the Taiwanese

government has predicted that its econ-

omy will grow by nearly 2.2% this year).

There will be intangible costs, too. Re-

search suggests that independent travel-

lers tend to leave with a better impression

of Taiwan than those who visit in groups.

All this will leave a mark, but it is no

crushing blow. Taiwan is much less reliant

on mainland tourists than it was five years

ago, when they made up two-fifths of all

visitors. That is in part because of restric-

tions China began imposing on group tra-

vel shortly before Ms Tsai’s inauguration in

2016. It is also because Taiwan has lately
      pushed hard to attract visitors from else-
      where. Tourist arrivals reached a record
      11.1m last year, mainly because of a surge of
      travellers from South-East Asian countries.
      China is angry with Ms Tsai for rejecting
      its overtures, and with America for being
      nice to her. It complained bitterly about her
      two recent stopovers in America, where
      she spoke at Columbia University and hob-
      nobbed with foreign diplomats. It raged
      about the Trump administration’s decision
      last month to approve a long-negotiated
      arms deal with Taiwan worth about $2.2bn.
      But it is probably most annoyed by Ms
      Tsai’s loud support in recent weeks for
      anti-government protesters in Hong Kong.
      She says they have “legitimate concerns”.
      By stemming the flow of tourists, China
      may be trying to warn Taiwanese voters of
      what could happen if they re-elect Ms Tsai
      and support other politicians like her in
      presidential and legislative elections in
      January—Taiwan’s economy is heavily reli-
      ant on China’s. The biggest opposition

Cross-strait relations

Sunset for backpackers

BEIJING AND TAIPEI

China’s efforts to influence Taiwan’s elections may not achieve much

China

46 Historic preservation

47 Chaguan: Distrust and verify

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