Onesuicidebomberhadgoneabroad,specificallyto
Turkey,withthe intentionof reaching Syria.Buthe failed
to enterSyriaandcamebackto Sri Lanka. It is not known
if he pickedup anyexpertisein bomb-making from
Turkey;butthereis speculation thathe mighthave.
International investigatorsare examiningthisaspectand
weretryingto piecetogethera timelineof his stayin
Turkey.
It hasalsobeenestablishedthattherewasa dryrun
by the suicidebombersalmosta weekpriorto April21. It
appears to havebeenan elaboratedry run,believedto be
in an easterntown,notColombo.
ORIGIN OFTHECHEMICALS
In fact,oneof the issuesof interestfor intelligence agen-
ciesaround the worldwasthe origin of the chemicalsand
thepossiblehelpthisgroupreceived,eitherlocallyor
fromoutside.Thisis the oneissuethatcaused the most
amount of anxietyfor the authoritiesin India.A one-way
boatridefromIndiato Sri LankacostsRs.36,000,and
onetheoryfloatedsoon afterthe blastswasthat some of
the explosives mighthavecome fromIndia.Intelligence
agencies on bothsidesare awareof thesmugglingthat
goeson between thetwocountries andhave,at times,
evenusedthisroutefor gatheringinformation.
Forbothsides, it wasa route thatcouldbe monitored
to someextent.A particularlandingpoint in the southern
tip of TamilNaduprovideseasyaccessto boththe south
Indianstates KeralaandTamilNadu.Forthisreason,
marijuana(KGin localparlancein Sri Lanka, referringto
Keralagold;the samematerial is namedIdukki goldin
KeralaandTamilNadu)anda hostof othermaterial
movebackandforthfromthisparticularpoint.Post-
April21, trafficon thisroutehas cometo a near-complete
halt.
Doesthismeanthattherecouldbe similarattacksin
the futureas warnedby a Minister,andparroted by the
UnitedStatesAmbassadorto Sri Lanka?“Unlikely,”said
an officialwhohadcontributed to the investigation.“Two
thingswentin the country’sfavour. Onewasthe deathof
themastermind,Zahran[Hashim]. Usually,master-
mindsdo not takepartin an attackdirectlybecausethey
believethattheywillbe ableto carryout more[attacks].
Zahranpossiblyknewthathe wouldbe killedanyway
afterthe blasts.Oncethe mastermindis out,the move-
mentgenerally loses direction.Thesecondwasthe quick
discovery of thearmsstashin Saithamaruthu [inAm-
paraidistrict].Withthesetwogone,thereis no possibil-
ity of regrouping,”the officialsaid.It waswiththe active
cooperationof the communitythatas manyas 89 persons
linkedin onewayor anotherto Zahranwereroundedup.
Theenhancedandvisiblesecurityall overSri Lanka
is to assure the peoplethattheyweresecure,according to
securityagencies. Thepolicingis in-your-facein the
Muslim-dominatedEasternprovince.Theonlypossibil-
ity of an incidentnowis from“lonewolf”attackers.These
are difficult to preventbuteffective policing canshorten
reaction times.
Buttheonequestionuppermostin themindsof
internationalagencieson the sceneis howthe Sri Lankan
forcesmissedso manyleadsbeforetheactualincident.
Thevandalisationof Buddhiststatuesin a Sri Lankan
town,theseizureof explosivesmaterial early thisyear,
the warningsof internationalactors—these werefar too
many incidentsto be missed. Noneof thesewastaken
withthe seriousnessit deserved.
In theaftermathof theblasts,Sri Lankansat many
levels of governance andevenmembersof civilsocietyare
puzzled whyIndiadid not conveythe informationto the
highestlevelin Sri Lanka.Askedabout this,an official
whohasservedin a similar covertpostabroadsaid:“We
follow SOPs[StandardOperating Procedures].There
arechannelsthatexistthroughwhichthiskindof in-
formationis conveyed. We willonlyconveythe informa-
tionthroughthesechannels.”
AnotherIndianofficialconcurred:“Yes,we are aware
of thedemand thatthisinformationshouldhavebeen
conveyedto theSri Lankan leadership. Unfortunately,
this cannot be done. Communication mechanisms
betweenintelligence agenciesof twocountries existfor a
reason. It hasworked so far andwe haveneutralised
manythreats.Thereis no reasonto revisitthe arrange-
mentnow.”
Accordingto theSri LankanPresident, as manyas
eightcountrieswerehelping Sri Lankain the investiga-
tion.Eversincetheblasts,Pakistan, whichhasa good
relationship withSri Lanka,hasbeentryingto get closer
to the investigation.ThePakistanAmbassadorhasbeen
labouringthe point thatPakistanis a victimof terrorism
too andis willingto helpSri Lankaout.
Thereis a bit of India-Pakistanjostling evenas the
investigationprogresses. Pakistanhasa retired Major
Generalas HighCommissioner in SriLanka, anda
fewcountriesin theregionhavereservationsabout
this. Thisis nota newphenomenon, butit is seenin a
newlight in thecurrentsecurityscenario. A senior
diplomat of a foreign countrystationedin Colombo
spoketoFrontlineabout a patternin whichPakistani
diplomats operateandhowhe hadwitnessedin a few
foragreatsimilarities in thelinesadopted by China
andPakistan.Of late,Pakistanis keenly interestedin
understanding what information waspassedon by the
Indianintelligenceagenciesandwhenbecausethis
becomes thekeyto understandinghowtheIndian
agenciesoperate.
Although there are all kindsof subplotsandtheories
floating around,at leastthreeintelligence agenciesin the
regionare gladthatthe Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI) hadbootson the groundin nextto no timeafterthe
blasts. Giventhatthe FBIis not beholdento geopolitical
interests,the agenciesbelievethattheywouldhavemany
moreanswersin the comingdaysandmonths.
It is in thiscontextthatthe visitof U.S.Secretaryof
StateMikePompeo,a formerdirectorof theCentral
IntelligenceAgency, towardsJune endneedsto be
viewed. Pompeowillbe thefirst Secretaryof Stateto visit
Sri Lankasince 2015 andis expectedto havea hardlook
at the evidence andfindings of the FBIteam. $