maritimearena,especiallyin Sri Lanka. Indiannaval
shipsrecently participated in a militaryexercisein the
SouthChina Sea alongsideJapanese, U.S.andPhilippine
navalvessels.
BilateralrelationsbetweenIndia andSri Lankahave
beenfraught on occasion, starting fromthe 1980swhen
Indiadespatchedpeacekeepingtroopsto the island. In-
dia’shandhasbeensuspectedin the politicalmachina-
tionsthatled to theexitof former President Mahinda
Rajapaksa.Indiahadviewedthe Rajapaksa government
as beingtoo closeto China for comfort.
In thefirst fouryearsof Modi’sfirst term,the Indian
governmentcooperated closelywiththe U.S.in effortsto
militarilyanddiplomaticallypressureChina. Thevisitof
a Chinesesubmarineto the Colomboportin 2014caused
alarmamong policymakersin NewDelhi.Theirdispleas-
urewasmadeknownto theRajapaksagovernment.It
wasduringhis tenurefrom 2005 to 2015thatChina-Sri
Lankarelations weredramatically strengthened.In
2013,the Rajapaksa governmentsignedthe $1.4billion
dealto develop ColomboPortCity.Sri Lankais strategic-
allylocatedin the Indian Oceanandis slatedto playan
importantrolein the BRI.
Aftertheouster of theRajapaksagovernment,the
newgovernment withMaithripalaSirisena as President
and Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister was
viewed as beingmorepro-India.Butthebonhomie did
notlastlong.According to reportsin theSri Lankan
media, SirisenaclaimedthatIndianintelligenceagencies
hadhatcheda plotto assassinate him.In October2018,
Sirisenadismissed Wickremesinghe,whois viewedas
the mostpro-Indian politicianin the establishment,and
replacedhimwithRajapaksa. Sirisena ultimatelydid not
havehis way,andWickremesinghewasreinstalledas
PrimeMinister. Thefissures in the governmentremain,
andits failureto reactin timeto warningsabout a
possibleterrorattackis being blamedon a dysfunctional
government.
Meanwhile,mostobservers of theregionareof the
viewthatit is onlya matterof timebefore the Rajapaksa
clanreturnsto power.Thepatriarch of thepolitical
family,Mahinda,hasbeenstressingfor sometimethat
he has no animusagainstNewDelhifor the events of the
recent past.Hehas,however,admittedthatrelations
soured in 2014afterModicameto power.ButRajapaksa
nowsaysthatthe oppositioncoalitionhe is leadinghas
goodrelationswiththe Modi government.All the major
stakeholdersin Sri Lankan politics concedethatIndia
hasvitalstakesin the island.
TheSri Lankanestablishmentdoesnotwantto be
beholdento onecountry. Alreadythereis talkof the
countrybeingcaughtin a “debttrap”by China,to which
Sri Lankaowes$5.5billion. Andbecauseof the massive
investmentsChina has madein the islandnation,it has a
big stakein ensuring thatpoliticalstability prevailsin Sri
Lanka. During the politicalcrisislastyear, Chinaagain
pledgedthatit would not interferein the internalaffairs
of thecountry.TheIndiangovernmentshouldhence-
forthalsorefrainfrominterfering evenindirectlyin Sri
Lankan affairs.Modi madeit a pointto meetwithRa-
japaksa duringhis recentvisitto Colombo.PLIGHTOFTAMILS
At thesametime,theIndiangovernmentshould not
forget aboutthe plightof a largenumberof Tamilswho
stillare without homesandjobsas a resultof the brutal
civilwar.TheSri Lankan government is backtrackingon
its commitmentsto displacedTamilsusingtherecent
terror attacksas an excuse.Investigationsagainstsecur-
ity personnelaccusedof warcrimesanddisappearances
of journalists andactivists havebeenputon theback
burner.
Theeconomy hasbeenbadlyaffectedby theterror
attacks. Thetourismindustry,whichwasboomingin
recent years, has beendevastated. Politicson the islandis
onceagainacquiringa sharpchauvinistic edge.The
Muslim community,which constitutes10 per centof the
population, is underimmensepressure.TheTamils,who
constitute15 per centof the population,are stillwaiting
for promisesmadeby thegovernmentto be fulfilled.
Thereis a fearthatthecountry could onceagainbe
suckedintoa viciouscycleof violenceandbloodletting.
Sucha scenariowouldbe dangerousfor Indiaandthe
entire region. $DINUKALIYANAWATTE/REUTERSATTHEHAMBANTOTAPORT.
ISHARAS.KODIKARA/AFPSANDBEINGDREDGEDfromthe sea at the Colombo
Port City constructionsite, a 2017picture.