Japanto Taiwan.Thisprodding hasled to a harsh sanc-
tionsregimeagainstRussia,which hasfounditselfisol-
atedfromEuropean markets. Thishasledto Russia
seeking closereconomictieswithChina.
Second,the U.S.hasattemptedto get Chinato sur-
renderits economicadvantagesto U.S.firms,whichhas
led to thistradewar.Chinahaslongsoughtan escape
fromthecloselinksto theU.S.market.Oneof these
passagesoutof theU.S. markethasbeentheBeltand
RoadInitiative (BRI)andthe String of Pearlsinitiative
thatrunsacross Eurasiaandthe IndianOcean.TheBRI
hasreliedupontheCentral Asianstates,whereRussia
continuesto havea strong influence, andon WestAsia,
whereRussianintervention in Syriashowed Russia’s
willingness to act—serendipitously—on behalf of
Chinese interests.Fearof U.S. actionandthe needfor a
Eurasian regionaleconomic strategyis what bringsthese
twomajorstatestogether.
BIPOLAR WORLDORDER
ProfessorYanXuetong,directorof the Institute for In-
ternationalRelationsat TsinghuaUniversity, Beijing,
saysthattheworldorderhasshifted froma unipolar
world,withthe U.S.at its centre, to a bipolar world,with
Chinajoiningthe U.S.as the twosupremepowersin the
world.Theprocessof movementfroma unipolar to a
bipolar systemwillnotbe smooth,andthe contests will
befierce.Thenucleardeterrent willprevent the contest
fromdeterioratingin a militarydirection,ProfessorYan
ANDREYRUDAKOV/BLOOMBERGargues. Tradewarsandsanctionsandcontests overmar-
ketswilldefine thetension.In theinterim, “chaosand
disorder”willdefine theworld.Butby 2023,Professor
Yannotes,the bipolarsystemwillbe established.
At theSt. Petersburgsummit,PresidentXi spoke
cautiouslyaboutthe U.S.tradewarwithChina.“It’shard
to imaginea completebreak of theUnited Statesfrom
China or of China fromthe UnitedStates,”he said.“We
are not interested in this,andourAmerican partnersare
notinterestedin this.”
“Global integration,” Xi said,is an unstoppabletrend.
Butbeneaththesecarefulwordswerea muchmore
heightened reality. In lateMay,China accused the U.S.of
“economicterrorism”,suggesting thattheratcheted-up
tradewarwentbeyondthe boundaries of “globalintegra-
tion”. Thisis stronglanguage, withChinaputting tariffs
on $60billionworthof imports fromthe U.S.in retali-
ation for the U.S. placing$200 billion on Chinese goods.
An easyexitfromthistradewardoesnotseem likely.
Putin’sspeech at the St. PetersburgForumwasmuch
strongerthanXi’sspeech. WhileXi defendedglobalisa-
tion, Putinattackedit directly: “I believethe main reason
[forglobalproblems] is thattheglobalisationmodel
whichwasputforthat the endof the 20thcenturyis less
andless relevantto the emergingneweconomicreality.”
Neither PutinnorXi offeredtoomanydetails.
When Xi spokepositively of globalisation,Putinap-
plaudedheartily. It is likely that theyreferredto differ-
ent things. Putin directly spoke of the type of
West-drivenglobalisationthathasresultedin high
ratesof economicandsocial inequality. Xi, on the
other hand,couldbe thinkingless in termsof the
West-drivenglobalisationthanof “globalintegration”
along the linesof its owneconomicinterventions
around theworld.In other words,Putinattackedthe
recedingpower of unipolarity,while Xi championed
theemergenceof thebipolarworldorder.MILITARYTIES
In 2008,ChinaandRussiafinallysolvedtheirdecades-
longborder dispute.The4,200-kilometreborder is now
completely delimited.Theendof thislongproblemcame
at the sametimeas ChinaandRussia beganto increase
economictiesin theshadows of thegeneralfinancial
crisis thathadhit theworld.These economictiesin-
cludedarmsdeals fromRussiathathelpedupgradeChi-
na’sPeople’sLiberation Army forces,althoughnowit is
Chineseshipbuildingandthe use of artificialintelligence
in weaponry thatis of interestto Russia.Thenewties
includeregularjointmilitaryexercisesin bothcountries.
In September 2018,the Chinese andRussiansconducted
Vostok 2018,oneof the largestmilitaryexercises in their
history,whichincludeda thirdof Russia’ssoldiers.These
closetieshavedisturbedtheconfidenceof theU.S.
government.
Littlesurprise, then, thatthe U.S.warshipthatleft its
basein Yokosuka, Japan,ran intoa Russianwarshipnear
the edgeof Chinese territorialwaters.Fortunately,there
wasno escalationfromthisincident. $