Wednesday August 7, 2019 15ASIANREVIEW
US missiles in Asia will hurt stability
China and ASEAN coming closer on South China Sea controversy
By Li Kaisheng
At the 52nd Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Min-
isters’ Meeting in Bangkok, Thailand,
which concluded Saturday, ministers
reaffirmed promoting implementa-
tion of the ASEAN Community Vision
2025 and strengthening cooperation
with their dialogue partners. ASEAN
members threw their weight behind
multilateralism and free trade, promot-
ed consultations and managed disputes,
agreeing to further carry forward
ASEAN economic integration.
Great strides forward have been
made when it comes to the cooperation
between China and ASEAN. The two
sides have been jointly promoting the
China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) and shaping rules for the region.
China has been the largest trading part-
ner of ASEAN for 10 consecutive years,
while the bloc surpassed the US to
become China’s second-largest trading
partner in the first half of 2019.
China and ASEAN have generally
reached consensus on their goals. Al-
though the two sides may have diver-
gences on specific issues, they both
agree to build a peaceful and mutually
beneficial relationship. This is the foun-
dation of China-ASEAN cooperation.
Without such consensus, the two sides
cannot make progress. China-ASEAN
cooperation has been promoted in a
variety of fields. Their collaboration
is not achieved at one stroke, but is
gradually and steadily advancing. For
example, China and ASEAN members
have recently finished the first reading
of the Single Draft Negotiating Text of
the South China Sea Code of Conduct.
Optimism can be anticipated when
it comes to negotiations between China
and ASEAN over the South China Sea
issue. The two sides have reached a
strategic consensus to standardize the
international order and bilateral rela-
tions in the waters.
But on the other hand, China and
ASEAN also face challenges in de-
veloping their ties. The US has been
interfering in the region. China and
ASEAN also have some disputes on
some key issues including the exploita-
tion of petroleum resources. Besides,
some countries want to strive for more
interests before negotiations take place,
hence their moves may impact the
entire negotiation process. Generally,
there are still uncertainties in the ne-
gotiations and both China and ASEAN
need to treat them carefully.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
on Thursday criticized China’s dam
building on the Mekong River, warn-
ing that the structure may harm the
downstream countries in Southeast
Asia. “The river is at its lowest levels in
a decade, a problem linked to China’sdecision to shut off water upstream,”
Pompeo said. The US has always been
interfering in the South China Sea
region, directly or indirectly. Direct
interference includes carrying out the
so-called freedom of navigation opera-
tions in the waters belonging to China.
Indirect interference includes sending
US coast guard vessels to the region,
holding joint military exercises with
other countries in the region and incit-
ing them against China.
Such US interference has somewhat
worsened these countries’ relations
with China, which will influence the
overall situation in the South China
Sea. China and ASEAN need to further
overcome external disturbances.
Relations between China and
ASEAN face two challenges in the fu-
ture. The first challenge is whether they
can further reach a strategic consensus
on international order and regional
condition. The world is undergoingprofound changes unseen in a century,
so are current international relations.
ASEAN members have their own views
and concerns on China-US relations,
China-Russia ties and regional order.
Whether ASEAN will choose sides be-
tween China and the US will be of great
significance.
The second challenge is whether
China and ASEAN can reach a consen-
sus on specific issues over the South
China Sea dispute and the BRI. The
two sides should further develop more
mechanisms to control and reduce
divergences on these issues.The author is a research fellow at the
Institute of International Relations, the
Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
[email protected]Page Editor:
[email protected]Editor’s Note:
US Secretary of Defense Mark
Esper said on Saturday that he
wants to deploy ground-based
intermediate-range conventional
missiles in Asia, just one day af-
ter his country formally withdrew
from the Intermediate-Range
Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
How will the decision influence
Asia’s security landscape? What
are the challenges the US faces
in this regard? The Global Times
talked to two Chinese experts on
these issues.
Li Haidong, professor at
Institute of International
Relations, China Foreign
Affairs University
US deploying intermediate-
range missiles in Asia will es-
calate tensions with China and
Russia, increase divergences
with its regional allies and ac-
celerate US decline.
It will undermine the bal-
ance of strategic relations
among great powers and impair
regional stability. It reflects the
US pursuit of absolute security
of itself and takes no account of
other countries’ security.
China’s influence in Asia is
rising, while US popularity in
the region is waning. The deci-
sion to deploy missiles is also a
manifestation of US discontent
with the status quo.
There is little doubt that the
US will deploy intermediate-
range missiles after withdraw-
ing from the INF. The question
is when and where to deploy
them. It would be difficult to
predict the exact time because
it depends on US agenda.
In terms of the location, it is
likely to be in US territories in
the Asia-Pacific region, such as
Guam and Wake Island.
Territories of its allies in this
region would be another poten-
tial option. As the deployment
of missiles is directed against
China and Russia, South Koreaand Japan will likely be chosen
as the locations.
The probability of deploying
missiles on Japanese soil would
be higher. Although China and
Russia would pile pressure on
Japan, when it comes to secu-
rity, Tokyo has always been a
puppet of Washington.
Seoul, on the other hand,
will likely not cooperate with
Washington in this regard.
South Korea’s possible resis-
tance may mainly come from
its concerns about the impact
on its economy, because it is
more closely linked to China
economically than to the US
or Japan. South Korea also has
lessons to learn from the de-
ployment of US Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense in 2017.
The move irked Beijing, which
led to China slapping sanctions
on South Korean companies.
If the US deploys interme-
diate-range missiles in Asia,
China will certainly take coun-termeasures and augment its
own missile forces in response,
so as to effectively deter the
US. Furthermore, it will lead
to closer ties and strategic co-
ordination between Beijing and
Moscow.
Washington should devote
more resources into domes-
tic affairs. Crises are emerg-
ing over issues such as US
national security and ethnic
identity. Political infighting and
mass shootings are becoming
increasingly frequent. US at-
tempt to divert resources and
energy to overseas issues will
not solve its own problems at
home, but will only exacerbate
US decline.Zhang Jiadong, professor
at the Center for American
Studies, Fudan University
US plan of deployment of
intermediate-range missiles in
Asia would have a significant
effect on geopolitics and secu-rity in the Asia-Pacific region,
because US military has always
been the most powerful force in
the region.
However, the US could de-
ploy the ground-based inter-
mediate-range missiles only on
its territories such as Guam,
rather than in Asia.
South Korea and Japan won’t
side with the US on the deploy-
ment of these missiles on their
territories because it would
make their own territories the
top target for attacks during
war.
Both Asian countries would
also worry that the deployment
of missiles would impair their
relations with neighboring
countries. A big part of North
Korea nuclear negotiations is
about missiles. If South Korea
and Japan approve the deploy-
ment, they will no longer be in
a position to object to missile
programs of North Korea or
other countries.Illustration: Liu Rui/GT