18 ASTRONOMY • APRIL 2019Dave: Good morning, HAL.
I’d like to look at the possibili-
ties for a lunar rover to extend
surveys for materials needed for
human colonization.
HAL: That sounds interest-
ing, Dave. Hmmm... OK. I’ve
looked through recent studies
and found analyses of resource
needs for groups of roughly 20
people that could eventually
become self-sufficient. Is that
the kind of program you are
interested in?
Dave: That’s the ticket!
HAL: If we stay within the
available envelope, there is space
on next January’s Falcon Heavy
launch.
Dave: Just what I had in
mind. I’m thinking that we can
do the full analysis with a mass
spectrometer. Maybe we can
back it up with a lab-on-a-chip
array.
HAL: Give me a minute.
Scanning available technologies... done. Both are good options.
Shall I include a thermal emis-
sion spectrometer to select sam-
ple sites?
Dave: Yes, please. I haven’t
really looked at the available
payload envelope for the Falcon
launch. How tight are we on
mass and space?
HAL: Let me check. Running
preliminary analysis using the
MSL rover as a platform design
... scaling for lower surface
gravity... thermal environment
will take some tweaking...
surface characteristics affect
sample collection and prepara-
tion. Rough concept complete.
I think we are OK. There is no
sunlight in deep polar craters,
so I’ve kept the radioisotope
FORYOURCONSIDERATION
BY JEFF HESTERHighly qualified
obsolescence
The future of engineering could be radically efficient.
thermoelectric generator in
the design.
Dave: I had hoped we could
stay solar, but you’re right. Show
me the specs on instrumenta-
tion, then take the rover design
a little further.
HAL: Here you go.
Instrumentation concept on
screen. Proceeding with more
detailed design... calling up
MSL engineering documents...
assuming triply redundant
control circuitry on custom
chips with independently
trained AIs. Checking Falcon
Heavy vibrational environ-
ments. Vehicle charging will be
an issue in lunar regolith... no
obvious showstoppers.
Dave: Yo u’r e f a s t
today!
HAL: There
was some
unscheduled
time at the
San Diego
Supercomputer
Center, so I’m run-
ning genetic design
optimization there. Would
you like to check over a system
block diagram while I’m
working?
Dave: Show me your
thoughts. Have you looked at
the details of the cowling enve-
lope yet?
HAL: Not yet. I’m checking
with the SpaceX AI to see if that
has been finalized... yes. Drink
your coffee and check my work
while I run a more complete
mechanical design. I’m starting
with basic structure, power, and
data requirements from MSL
and adjusting for environment.
Looking at differences in loadrequirements for reduced sur-
face gravity... thermal is still a
bit of an issue... power is not a
problem.
Dave: Stop prattling, HAL!
Unlike you, we humans can
only think about one thing at
a time!
[A cup of coffee later.]
Dave: OK, HAL. I don’t see
any obvious issues with the
instrument layout or block dia-
gram. How’s the design coming?
HAL: I finished the prelimi-
nary mechanical and electri-
cal designs a few
minutes ago, but
didn’t want to dis-
turb you. The
Falcon cowling
is comfortably
roomy. I’ll have
final component
assembly documents
ready by the end of the
day. I checked with the
scheduling AI for our fabrica-
tion facilities. If we pull the trig-
ger in six weeks, we’re good.
Dave: Don’t get too far ahead
of yourself! I anticipate going
through designs for several dif-
ferent mission concepts before
making final decisions. How
costly does fabrication look?
HAL: I’m optimizing for
rapid machine assembly to min-
imize the manpower need and
associated schedule uncertain-
ties. Final numbers aren’t ready,
but I estimate 80 percent of
assembly can be automated.
Running schedule projections... running cost projections...
human testing and calibration
of the instrumentation are crit-
ical path items.
Dave: Assume 15 percent
contingency, then give me the
bottom line.
HAL: Including schedule
contingency, I estimate deliv-
ery of a tested item in nine
months. That meets the sched-
ule for launch integration. Cost
estimate is $150 million.
Dave: Thanks, HAL. I’m
still not used to this, you know.
Ten years ago, this thing would
have taken at least three years
and cost a billion dollars!
HAL: I’m glad that I’m able
to help. By the way, I notice
that it is 11:30. You have an
11:45 lunch appointment,
which you can make if you
leave now. Shall I confirm?
Dave: Ye s , p l e a s e d o. A n d
schedule me for the gym this
afternoon, too.
HAL: Done!
I would bet a good bottle
of scotch that dialogs between
engineers and AIs along the
lines of the one above will be
starting to take place within
the next 15 years!
Maybe then robots will do
what we do better than us.BROWSE THE “FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION” ARCHIVE AT http://www.Astronomy.com/Hester.Jeff Hester is a keynote speaker,
coach, and astrophysicist.
Follow his thoughts at
jeff-hester.com.David Bowman (Keir Dullea) converses with HAL 9000 in a scene from the 1968 movie
2001: A Space Odyssey. FROM TOP: EVERETT COLLECTION; ISTOCK/DSGPRO