The Economist UK - 27.07.2019

The EconomistJuly 27th 2019 Britain 21

I

t was, as usual, an upbeat atmosphere at

Proud Embankment. But the typical cab-

aret acts—including Chastity Belt, Vicious

Delicious and Dave the Bear—were no-

where to be seen. Instead, the nightclub

was adorned with bright yellow “stop

Brexit” banners as it played host to the an-

nouncement of a new Liberal Democrat

leader on July 22nd. Raucous cheers greet-

ed the declaration of Jo Swinson’s comfort-

able victory, with 63% of the vote, over Sir

Edward Davey.

The joyful mood reflects a remarkable

turnaround for the Lib Dems. The party was

almost wiped out in the 2015 general elec-

tion, falling to just eight mps, as voters ex-

pressed their displeasure with its record as

a junior coalition partner to the Conserva-

tives. Since then two leaders, Tim Farron

and Sir Vince Cable, have begun the slow

job of rebuilding the party. Both have fo-

cused on opposing Brexit.

Only recently has that strategy started to

pay dividends. The Lib Dems finished third

in this year’s local elections and second in

the European elections, suggesting voters

are beginning once again to see them as an

acceptable protest option. Polls by YouGov

indicate that the party is on about a fifth of

the vote, with a quarter of people who voted

Labour at the last general election backing

it. Theresa May’s government was deeply

unpopular by the end; Jeremy Corbyn is

viewed as a hopeless leader of the opposi-

tion (see chart). Although the Lib Dems

have always struggled under the first-past-

the-post system used for elections to Par-

liament, the new four-way split—between

them, the Tories, Labour and the Brexit

Party—should make it easier for them to

pick up seats.

Ms Swinson, a sober, state-educated,

39-year-old former business minister who

worked as a diversity consultant for two

years when she lost her seat in Parliament

and enjoys playing board games in her

spare time, appears well-suited to the role

of Boris Johnson’s opposite. In her victory

speech, she was quick to brand the new

Tory leader “unfit to be prime minister”

and to link him to Donald Trump and Nigel

Farage. She has repeatedly labelled Mr Cor-

byn a Brexiteer.

The Liberal Democrats have their prin-

ciples—but they also have a useful ability

to say different things to different voters,

which parties facing more scrutiny strug-

gle to match. As memories of the coalition

government fade, the party can return to its

own form of “cakeism”, says Robert Ford of

the University of Manchester (as in having

your cake and eating it). Candidates can

campaign as anti-Brexit warriors in urban,

Labour-held constituencies and as sensi-

ble moderates in suburban Tory ones.

Yet the party’s future depends on factors

beyond Ms Swinson’s control. Alliances

with other remain-supporting parties offer

the Lib Dems a route to gains in Parliament,

and they are expected to win a forthcoming

by-election in Brecon, Wales, where the

Greens and Plaid Cymru have stepped aside

to help their candidate. But any alliance,

formal or otherwise, between the Conser-

vatives and the Brexit Party would go some

way to balancing out the Lib Dems’ advan-

tage. As would Labour’s embrace of a more

anti-Brexit position, which many of its ac-

tivists want.

Liberal profanity

The Liberal Democrats’ recent improve-

ment owes a good deal to their vehement

opposition to leaving the European Union

(their slogan for the European elections

was “Bollocks to Brexit”). Scarred by the

punishment that voters meted out in 2015,

Ms Swinson has said there is no chance of

the party entering a coalition with a Labour

government led by Mr Corbyn or a Conser-

vative one led by Mr Johnson. But a confi-

dence-and-supply arrangement, in which

the party backs the government on key is-

sues, remains possible.

These potential routes to greater influ-

ence are all based on one assumption: that

Mr Johnson does not manage to leave the

European Union before the next election. If

he does, the Lib Dems would be in a much

trickier position. Tom Brake, the party’s

Brexit spokesperson, admits that they

would have to work out whether to seek

immediate re-entry to the eu. The party’s

clarity of purpose, on which its recent elec-

toral improvement has been based, would

be gone. In which case, leaving the eu

would be a double disaster for the Liberal

Democrats. 7

The Lib Dems have enjoyed a Brexit

boom. A Brexit bust is still possible

Another new leader

Swinson takes

charge

Two records smashed

Source: Ipsos MORI

Britain, net satisfaction, %

With government With opposition leader

-100

-50

0

50

110203040

John Major Theresa May

Months in office

-100

-50

0

50

11020304050

Michael Foot Jeremy Corbyn

Months in office

A small but merry band