The EconomistJuly 27th 2019 The Americas 392
1I
t is a tricky time to be in the tourism
business in Mexico. A record murder
rate, and travel warnings, have put some
foreigners off. The number of visitors to
Quintana Roo, the jewel of the tourism in-
dustry, is expected to drop by 30% this year,
due to pile-ups of seaweed on beaches so
big that the navy is helping to clean them
up. Last year the number of visitors to Mex-
ico rose by 2.2m, its lowest increase since- Just as the bad news mounts, Andrés
Manuel López Obrador, the president, has
disbanded the tourism-promotion body.
Oaxaca, Mexico’s second-poorest state,
is a bright exception. The number of for-
eigners flying into the capital, a colonial
gem also called Oaxaca, soared by 49% in
the year to March, a bigger rise than any-
where else. The fame of Yalitza Aparicio,
the indigenous star of “Roma”, a film re-
leased last year, is likely to make the state
still more popular. She is the face of this
year’s Guelaguetza, a festival of indigenous
culture, which ends on July 29th.
The southern state is not for everyone.
D.H.Lawrence, who spent three months
there in the 1920s, thought it “queer and
forlorn”. It is still queer. Teachers spend
more time on strike than in classrooms.
Roads are unpaved and the poverty rate is
70%. But many tourists are undaunted. Oa-
xaca’s Pacific coast is ideal for surfers (and
seaweed-free). Mezcal, a globally popular
spirit, can be quaffed in the villages where
it is made. Mexico’s most indigenous state,
Oaxaca prides itself on its creativity, which
OAXACA
A poor Mexican state bets on tourismOaxacaPobre, pero sexy
J
udges wieldmore power than almost
anyone else in Guatemala. This year
the supreme court disqualified one of the
front-runners for the presidency. It
allowed the candidacy of another, Sandra
Torres, after prosecutors declined to
open a corruption case against her until
the day after her immunity, to which she
is entitled as a candidate, took effect. The
current president, Jimmy Morales, is at
odds with the constitutional court be-
cause it blocked a proposed agreement
under which migrants bound for the
United States would have to apply for
asylum in Guatemala. The selection this
summer of a new bench for the supreme
court, plus scores of judges for appellate
courts, matters as much as whether Ms
Torres wins the election on August 11th.
The selection process is an unusual
one. Deans of university law faculties are
entitled to a third of the seats on “postu-
lation commissions”, which draw up
shortlists of potential judges. The rest of
the membership is composed of serving
judges, representatives of bar associa-
tions and the rector of a university. Con-
gress makes the final choice. The consti-
tutional court is chosen differently. The
president, congress, the supreme court,
the bar association and the University of
San Carlos, Guatemala’s only public one,
each pick a judge.
The system became part of the consti-
tution in 1985 and was extended in 1993. It
was a way to lessen corruption by reduc-
ing the influence over the judiciary ofpoliticians and their friends. It has not
worked as intended.
In 2001 the dean of San Carlos’s law
school persuaded the university to name
him to the constitutional court. One of
his successors realised that he could
expand his influence by conferring lots
of degrees. The grateful graduates would
man the bar associations, giving them a
say over who sits on the commissions.
These incentives have led to a prolif-
eration of law schools. In the past 25
years their number has risen from four to- Wheeler-dealers bankroll the cam-
paigns of professors competing to be-
come deans, for example by throwing
parties for students, who in some cases
have a role in choosing them. Some law
schools are almost phantoms. Da Vinci
University, whose former dean, Fredy
Cabrera, was a presidential candidate,
has a skeleton staff but graduates hun-
dreds of students. The judges who
emerge from this complicated selection
process are expected to issue rulings
favourable to the people who manipulate
it, for example on tax cases.
Until a few years ago the most pow-
erful judge-picker was Roberto López
Villatoro, an importer of knock-off shoes
known as “the sneaker king”. In 2009 he
allegedly bought the votes of bar-associa-
tion representatives by sending them to
Spain to study for master’s degrees. In
2014 he bought a flat for a magistrate. Mr
López is in jail pending trial, but the
professorial patronage continues.
Buy any deans necessary
Guatemala’s judiciaryGUATEMALA CITY
What happens when professors, not politicians, pick judgesthe anti-corruption dream team are failing
them. True, Mr Bolsonaro’s approval rating
of 33% in early July was the lowest since
1990 for any president after six months in
office, according to Datafolha, a pollster.
But scandals are not the reason. More of-
ten, respondents point to the impact of a
weak economy, cuts to university budgets
and unpresidential behaviour (Mr Bolso-
naro recently called governors of poor
north-eastern states paraíbas, or “hicks”).
Embarrassing headlines have not
stopped parts of his programme from mov-
ing ahead, which was not the case during
the presidency of his predecessor, Michel
Temer. Mercosur, a group to which Brazil
belongs, has reached a trade agreement in
principle with the European Union (see
Bello). A reform of pensions is advancing.
If the corruption fight is to resume,
prosecutors say, both the supreme court
and the president will have to changecourse. Prosecutors hope that the court will
reverse Mr Toffoli’s decision, unblocking
investigations into Flávio and other al-
leged wrongdoers. Progress will depend
partly on whom Mr Bolsonaro chooses to
succeed Raquel Dodge as Brazil’s attorney-
general in September. Mr Bolsonaro has
waffled about whether he will pick one of
the three candidates proposed by the Na-
tional Association of Prosecutors. That
practice began in 2003 as a way of ensuring
the attorney-general’s independence from
politics. Mr Bolsonaro’s choice will be “a
big test of the government’s commitment”
to fight corruption, says Bruno Brandão of
Transparency International, an ngo.
Despite its flaws, Lava Jato offered the
hope that Brazil might end the culture of
impunity that allowed corruption to flour-
ish. The question now is whether that
quest can overcome the damage inflicted
on it by its biggest champions. 7