The Economist UK - 27.07.2019

4 Special reportCanada The EconomistJuly 27th 2019

2 Mr Trudeau has tried to live up to that

prophecy. His parliament legalised assist-

ed suicide, and cannabis for recreational

use. His government has let people identify

themselves as neither male nor female on

their passports. It has moved efforts to

fight global warming from the periphery of

policy to the centre, compelling provinces

to put a price on carbon emissions or sub-

mit to a federal scheme. It has continued

Mr Harper’s policy of liberalising trade, but

tilted leftwards by redistributing income

and tolerating budget deficits. In a general

election in October, Canadians will decide

whether they want four more years of Mr

Trudeau’s liberal policies.

The prime minister has been a promi-

nent figure internationally, too. Like his fa-

ther, Pierre, who held the job in the 1960s,

1970s and 1980s, befriending Fidel Castro

and recognising communist China before

America did, he has been willing to stand

apart from American foreign policy. While

Mr Trump seeks to undermine international institutions and alli-

ances, Canadian diplomats are striving to shore them up. As its

neighbour to the south retreats into a more insular mindset, less

willing to take on responsibilities in the world, Canada continues

to push its liberal international agenda. It has taken a lead in de-

fending the World Trade Organisation and co-chaired the Equal

Rights Coalition that defends gay rights.

While Mr Trump has repelled refugees, Mr Trudeau has wel-

comed them, notably Syrians and gay people from Chechnya. The

world has seen him defy political fashion for four years. With the

election approaching, it will be watching “in order to determine

whether doing the right thing ends up with the right results”, says

Bill Morneau, the finance minister.

At home, Mr Trudeau is not getting an easy ride. A conservative

backlash has gathered. On the environ-

ment, the recently elected premiers of On-

tario and Alberta reject his carbon tax. In

June Quebec, the French-speaking prov-

which often goes its own way, passed a

law banning some public servants, includ-

teachers and police, from wearing reli-

gious symbols. This Francophone chal-

lenge to Mr Trudeau’s cuddly multi-

culturalism may be echoed in the national

election campaign.

Many liberal Canadians are concerned

that the angry politics which put Mr Trump

in office could come to Canada. Michael

Adams, a pollster, published a book in 2017

called “Could It Happen Here?”. The title

appears on a red “Make America Great

Again” baseball cap. Last year Ontario elect-

ed as its premier Doug Ford, an elite-bash-

ing, tax-slashing conservative who is the

closest Canada has to Mr Trump. The coun-

try is not exempt from “the backlash

among white men about cultural and eco-

nomic changes that are diminishing their power”, says David

Herle, who managed the losing campaign of Mr Ford’s Liberal Party

opponent, Kathleen Wynne. Mr Trump’s trade tantrums have also

added to a sense of economic insecurity, even though unemploy-

ment in Canada is near its lowest level since the 1970s.

Some Canadians object to Mr Trudeau’s relentless political cor-

rectness, and worry that his liberalism has an illiberal side (see box

overleaf ). The prime minister has not been helped by a couple of

scandals, notably one in which his office has been accused of try-

ing to press the attorney-general to drop a corruption investiga-

tion against a large engineering firm.

All of this has helped the federal Conservative Party, led by An-

drew Scheer, to match the Liberals in opinion polls. Mr Scheer is

not Mr Trump. Yet the views of his political base on issues such as

climate change, immigration, gun control

and foreign policy can seem closer to those

of the American president than to those of

Mr Trudeau. Under Mr Scheer, Canada

would certainly present a different face to

the world.

Mr Trump has given Canada a wake-up

call, which reverberates beyond trade. Dif-

ferent parts of the country are responding

differently. Among business people it has

stirred ambitions to match America be-

yond the basketball court. Policymakers

have scrambled to counter America-first

economic policies. Many Canadians have

renewed appreciation for what makes their

country distinctive. The challenge facing

Canada is “how do we preserve what’s es-

sential about our country in the face of an

unpredictable and hostile environment?”,

says Robert Bothwell, a historian.

Faced with a Trumpian reality to the

south, Canada is asking questions about its

own identity. Has Mr Trudeau succeeded in

selling his liberal vision of the nation? And

can it continue to be a liberal beacon to the

world? The answer will partly depend on

whether, economically, the model works

for its people. 7

1,000 km

Detroit River Washington, D.C.

Vancouver

Whitehorse

New York

Portland

Windsor

Calgary

Toronto

Quebec

Montreal

Ottawa Roxham Road

Seattle

Detroit

UNITED

STATES

Greenland

CANADA Newfoundland

and Labrador

Northwest

Territories

ARCTIC

OCEAN

PACI F I C

OCEAN

Hudson

Bay

British

Columbia

New Brunswick

P. E. I.

Nova

Washington Scotia

Alaska

Minnesota Michigan New York

Manitoba

Northwest

Passage

Trans

Mountain

pipeline

Keystone

Line 3

Nunavut

Ontario

Alberta

Saskat-

chewan

Oregon

Quebec

Yu ko n

Rapid Lake

reserve

Edmonton

Iqaluit

Yellowknife

St John’s

Regina

Winnipeg

Fredericton

Halifax

Historic

treaties

Territory covered by

modern treaties with

indigenous groups

Churchill

Keeping up with the neighbours

Sources: National statistics; United Nations;

World Economic Forum; Edelman

2019 or latest

Canada United States

Population 37m 329m

GDP $2trn $21trn

Life expectancy 82 years 79 years

Share of foreign-born 22% 14%

population, % of total

Gun homicides 0.7 12

per 100,000 people

Happiness ranking 9 19

(out of 156 countries)

Competitiveness ranking 12 1

(out of 140 countries)

Trust in government, 61% 33%

% of informed public

Maple syrup production, 13m 4m

gallons