The Economist UK - 27.07.2019

46 Asia The EconomistJuly 27th 2019

2 Senior members of Ms Tsai’s govern-

ment joke that having no formal relations

with America is an advantage, since Mr

Trump, who sometimes seems to prefer au-

tocracies to democracies and who seeks an

elusive trade deal with China, is less likely

to notice the thickening of ties. The presi-

dent has signed off on a more tangible mea-

sure of assistance for Taiwan: approval for

a long-planned sale of arms, worth $2.2bn,

that includes tanks and Stinger anti-air-

craft missiles. The sale of more than 60 f-16

fighter jets looks likely soon, too.

China claims to be outraged by the re-

cent sales and has threatened to impose

sanctions on the American companies in-

volved. Yet they are all of a piece with long-

standing bipartisan support for Taiwan’s

defence. On July 24th a uswarship made

what America called a routine transit of the

Taiwan Strait. In truth, much American-

supplied equipment is old and vulnerable

to China’s new precision-guided weapons.

But the sales remain a powerful signal of

America’s backing.

They also do no harm to Ms Tsai’s stand-

ing at home—the f-16s had been requested

as far back as 2006. Campaigning for Tai-

wan’s presidential and legislative elections

next January is heating up. On July 15th, in a

similar primary process to the dpp’s, the

kmtnamed Han Kuo-yu, mayor of the city

of Kaohsiung, as its presidential candidate.

Voters thus face a stark choice. Mr Han,

whose family hails from the mainland, is a

voluble proponent of appeasing China. He

says binding Taiwan more closely to Chi-

na’s vast markets will bring prosperity. But

it may also imperil Taiwan’s autonomy.

In contrast to the mousy Ms Tsai, Mr

Han is a natural orator with a common

touch. He drives crowds of older, working-

class and rural followers wild. With 45%

support in the primary, he blew past the

runner-up, Terry Gou, a billionaire maker

of iPhones, with 28%.

Mr Han calls Taiwanese independence

“more scary” than syphilis. He refers to Tai-

wan as a region (that is, of China) rather

than the country it is. Yet the Hong Kong

protests have forced Mr Han to tack away

from China. The Communist Party wants

its formula of supposed autonomy for

Hong Kong—“one country, two sys-

tems”—to apply one day to Taiwan. “Over

my dead body”, Mr Han had to declare.

While Ms Tsai may be seen as the better

defender of Taiwanese sovereignty, her

chances of re-election may be further

boosted if Ko Wen-je, the pro-China mayor

of Taipei, runs as an independent presi-

dential candidate. Mr Gou has not ruled out

doing the same. This would split the oppo-

sition vote. In a poll published on June

22nd, tvbs, a kmt-leaning network, found

Ms Tsai ahead with support of 37%, com-

pared with 29% for Mr Han and 20% for Mr

Ko. For now Ms Tsai’s sun is shining. 7

O

ne hopebehind the visit by John Bol-

ton, President Donald Trump’s nation-

al security adviser, to Seoul this week was

that it might help patch up a row between

South Korea and another close American

ally, Japan. The rift, with its roots in colo-

nial history and wartime animosity, has

brought trade sanctions from Japan. It is

also jeopardising military co-operation

and the renewal next month of an intelli-

gence-sharing agreement—especially im-

portant in face of the threat from North Ko-

rea, which on July 25th was reported to

have made its latest missile test. As Mr Bol-

ton arrived two days earlier, his arguments

for the importance of the agreement had al-

ready been bolstered by a vivid demonstra-

tion of the fragility of regional peace. South

Korea’s fighter jets had fired 360 warning

shots at a Russian military aircraft that it

said had intruded into its airspace.

The details are disputed. South Korea

said that Russian and Chinese planes had

penetrated its self-declared Korean Air De-

fence Identification Zone (kadiz), an area

around its borders where it requires for-

eign planes to notify it of entry. A Russian

spy plane then twice intruded into South

Korean airspace, prompting the air force to

scramble jets. Russia denied the incursion,

and that shots had been fired. But it ac-

cused South Korea of “hooliganism in the

air” for harassing its aircraft. The next day

South Korea reported that Russia had

changed tack, expressing “deep regret” and

blaming the incident on a technical glitch.

Russia soon denied having issued any

apology. But whatever the origin of the con-

frontation, it highlights three reasons for

America to worry about north-east Asia.

The first is growing military co-operation

between China and Russia, which appear

to have been conducting a joint patrol

around South Korea. A second is the patch-

work of unsettled territorial disputes. The

alleged incursion took place over the wa-

ters around islands known as Dokdo by

South Korea, which controls them, and Ta-

keshima by Japan, which also claims them.

Japan also scrambled jets and has protested

to both Russia (for violating its airspace)

and South Korea (for firing in it). To the

south, Japan and China contest the Sen-

kaku or Diaoyu islands. The disputes were-

further complicated when China in 2013

announced its own adiz, over these is-

lands. South Korea then expanded the ka-

diz. The three countries’ zones overlap.

The third worry is of an accident or mis-

understanding. For two countries that have

long been at peace, Japan and South Korea

keep their fighter pilots busy. In the 12

months that ended this March Japan

scrambled its jets 999 times in response to

aerial incursions—two-thirds of them by

China over the Senkakus, the rest by Russia

over yet more disputed islands to the north

of Japan. South Korean pilots, too, fre-

quently respond to Chinese forays into the

kadiz. With so much muscle-flexing in the

skies, it is easy to imagine a disastrous mis-

calculation—especially if, as this week,

shots are fired.

America must hope the incident will re-

mind South Korea and Japan that the secu-

rity threat to each comes not from the other

but from North Korea and an assertive Chi-

na, further encouraged by its ever closer

ties with Russia; and that in response

South Korea and Japan should be shoulder

to shoulder, not eyeball to eyeball. 7

China and Russia are testing South

Korea’s limits

North-east Asia’s contested skies

Scrambling

To k y o

Seoul

CHINA

RUSSIA

N. KOREA

TA I WA N

JAPAN

SOUTH

KOREA

Dokdo/

Takeshima

Senkaku/

Diaoyu Is.

400 km

Air Defence

Identification

Zones (ADIZ)

South Korea

Japan

China