The Economist USA - 27.07.2019

The EconomistJuly 27th 2019 The Americas 29

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I

t is a tricky time to be in the tourism

business in Mexico. A record murder

rate, and travel warnings, have put some

foreigners off. The number of visitors to

Quintana Roo, the jewel of the tourism in-

dustry, is expected to drop by 30% this year,

due to pile-ups of seaweed on beaches so

big that the navy is helping to clean them

up. Last year the number of visitors to Mex-

ico rose by 2.2m, its lowest increase since

2013. Just as the bad news mounts, Andrés
      Manuel López Obrador, the president, has
      disbanded the tourism-promotion body.
      Oaxaca, Mexico’s second-poorest state,
      is a bright exception. The number of for-
      eigners flying into the capital, a colonial
      gem also called Oaxaca, soared by 49% in
      the year to March, a bigger rise than any-
      where else. The fame of Yalitza Aparicio,
      the indigenous star of “Roma”, a film re-
      leased last year, is likely to make the state
      still more popular. She is the face of this
      year’s Guelaguetza, a festival of indigenous
      culture, which ends on July 29th.
      The southern state is not for everyone.
      D.H.Lawrence, who spent three months
      there in the 1920s, thought it “queer and
      forlorn”. It is still queer. Teachers spend
      more time on strike than in classrooms.
      Roads are unpaved and the poverty rate is
      70%. But many tourists are undaunted. Oa-
      xaca’s Pacific coast is ideal for surfers (and
      seaweed-free). Mezcal, a globally popular
      spirit, can be quaffed in the villages where
      it is made. Mexico’s most indigenous state,
      Oaxaca prides itself on its creativity, which

OAXACA

A poor Mexican state bets on tourism

Oaxaca

Pobre, pero sexy

J

udges wieldmore power than almost

anyone else in Guatemala. This year

the supreme court disqualified one of the

front-runners for the presidency. It

allowed the candidacy of another, Sandra

Torres, after prosecutors declined to

open a corruption case against her until

the day after her immunity, to which she

is entitled as a candidate, took effect. The

current president, Jimmy Morales, is at

odds with the constitutional court be-

cause it blocked a proposed agreement

under which migrants bound for the

United States would have to apply for

asylum in Guatemala. The selection this

summer of a new bench for the supreme

court, plus scores of judges for appellate

courts, matters as much as whether Ms

Torres wins the election on August 11th.

The selection process is an unusual

one. Deans of university law faculties are

entitled to a third of the seats on “postu-

lation commissions”, which draw up

shortlists of potential judges. The rest of

the membership is composed of serving

judges, representatives of bar associa-

tions and the rector of a university. Con-

gress makes the final choice. The consti-

tutional court is chosen differently. The

president, congress, the supreme court,

the bar association and the University of

San Carlos, Guatemala’s only public one,

each pick a judge.

The system became part of the consti-

tution in 1985 and was extended in 1993. It

was a way to lessen corruption by reduc-

ing the influence over the judiciary of

politicians and their friends. It has not

worked as intended.

In 2001 the dean of San Carlos’s law

school persuaded the university to name

him to the constitutional court. One of

his successors realised that he could

expand his influence by conferring lots

of degrees. The grateful graduates would

man the bar associations, giving them a

say over who sits on the commissions.

These incentives have led to a prolif-

eration of law schools. In the past 25

years their number has risen from four to

12. Wheeler-dealers bankroll the cam-
    paigns of professors competing to be-
    come deans, for example by throwing
    parties for students, who in some cases
    have a role in choosing them. Some law
    schools are almost phantoms. Da Vinci
    University, whose former dean, Fredy
    Cabrera, was a presidential candidate,
    has a skeleton staff but graduates hun-
    dreds of students. The judges who
    emerge from this complicated selection
    process are expected to issue rulings
    favourable to the people who manipulate
    it, for example on tax cases.
    Until a few years ago the most pow-
    erful judge-picker was Roberto López
    Villatoro, an importer of knock-off shoes
    known as “the sneaker king”. In 2009 he
    allegedly bought the votes of bar-associa-
    tion representatives by sending them to
    Spain to study for master’s degrees. In
    2014 he bought a flat for a magistrate. Mr
    López is in jail pending trial, but the
    professorial patronage continues.

Buy any deans necessary

Guatemala’s judiciary

GUATEMALA CITY

What happens when professors, not politicians, pick judges

the anti-corruption dream team are failing

them. True, Mr Bolsonaro’s approval rating

of 33% in early July was the lowest since

1990 for any president after six months in

office, according to Datafolha, a pollster.

But scandals are not the reason. More of-

ten, respondents point to the impact of a

weak economy, cuts to university budgets

and unpresidential behaviour (Mr Bolso-

naro recently called governors of poor

north-eastern states paraíbas, or “hicks”).

Embarrassing headlines have not

stopped parts of his programme from mov-

ing ahead, which was not the case during

the presidency of his predecessor, Michel

Temer. Mercosur, a group to which Brazil

belongs, has reached a trade agreement in

principle with the European Union (see

Bello). A reform of pensions is advancing.

If the corruption fight is to resume,

prosecutors say, both the supreme court

and the president will have to change

course. Prosecutors hope that the court will

reverse Mr Toffoli’s decision, unblocking

investigations into Flávio and other al-

leged wrongdoers. Progress will depend

partly on whom Mr Bolsonaro chooses to

succeed Raquel Dodge as Brazil’s attorney-

general in September. Mr Bolsonaro has

waffled about whether he will pick one of

the three candidates proposed by the Na-

tional Association of Prosecutors. That

practice began in 2003 as a way of ensuring

the attorney-general’s independence from

politics. Mr Bolsonaro’s choice will be “a

big test of the government’s commitment”

to fight corruption, says Bruno Brandão of

Transparency International, an ngo.

Despite its flaws, Lava Jato offered the

hope that Brazil might end the culture of

impunity that allowed corruption to flour-

ish. The question now is whether that

quest can overcome the damage inflicted

on it by its biggest champions. 7