The Grocer – 20 July 2019

analysis commodity prices

16 | The Grocer | 20 July 2019 Get the full story at thegrocer.co.uk

● Soft fruit: UK soft fruit

exports soared 69% to a

record £22.1m last year, up

from £13m in 2017, accord-

ing to Defra. Blackberries,

strawberries and raspber-

ries are now worth a com-

bined £18m in overseas

sales, with the Netherlands,

Spain and the Republic of

Ireland the UK’s biggest

markets for soft fruit. Export

values have risen consist-

ently over the past fi ve years

and are up by more than

300% compared to 2013.

● Wheat: Global wheat pro-

duction estimates have

been lowered by 9.4 million

tonnes in the USDA’s latest

WASDE report. Production

forecasts have been revised

down for major export-

ers Russia (–3.8Mt), the

EU (–2.5Mt) and Ukraine

(–1.0Mt). However, forecasts

are still above last year.

● ASF: China has reported

another outbreak of African

swine fever. The deadly pig

disease has been found on a

farm of 100 pigs in the coun-

try’s southwestern Sichuan

province, offi cials con-

fi rmed this week. The total

of ongoing ASF outbreaks

worldwide is now 5,763,

according to the OIE.

prices digest

A new beef TRQ could cause non-EU beef imports to surge by 1,300%

T

he UK might face a fl ood
of cheap beef imports
aft er Brexit before it’s
even signed new trade deals, a
new report suggests.
In the event of a no-deal
Brexit, the UK would impose
temporary tariff s on beef that
are roughly half the current EU
tariff s, says the study by The
Andersons Centre for British
red meat levy bodies AHDB,
QMS and HCC. As a result, beef
imports from the EU – which
are currently tariff -free – would
likely fall signifi cantly.
However, plans to introduce
a new 230,000-tonne tariff -rate
quota for UK beef would cause
imports from non-EU countries
to surge by over 1,300%, the
report predicts.
The TRQ would be open to all
countries, including EU mem-
ber states, and allocated on a
fi rst-come-fi rst-served basis.
So it could potentially be used
by EU27 exporters for ongo-
ing tariff -free access to the UK.
“However, this needs to be bal-
anced against the fact that it
would be extremely diffi cult for

Flood of cheap beef

to hit post-Brexit UK

the EU27 to compete with the

likes of Latin American suppli-

ers on price,” says the report.

Any surge in imports from

outside the EU would likely

result in “lower prices” for beef

in the UK, putting pressure on

the domestic industry, it warns.

UK beef prices could be

pushed down even further if the

government sticks to its promise

to maintain frictionless trade

on the island of Ireland. “The

potential for re-routing meat

from the Republic of Ireland via

NI and onwards to GB without

any checks, could result in sub-

stantial volumes of beef being

placed on the UK market,” says

the report.

However, the overall impact

on the sector would depend on

whether UK consumers kept

buying British, said Sarah

Baker, AHDB strategic insight

manager. “Lots of shoppers

say they’d back British, but our

research suggests what peo-

ple say and what they do aren’t

always the same thing .”

Carina Perkins

CURRENCY PRICE CHANGE CHANGE

WINNERS & LOSERS

price per

tonne m-o-m % y-o-y %

Key climbers

Gas (UK) GBP 34.6 19.6 –

Crude oil (ICE) (EU) USD 65.9 8.8 –12.

Coffee ara (ICE) (US) US cent 113.3 8.8 –2.

Coffee rob (ICE) (EU) USD 1,479.4 3.1 –11.

Soyabean oil (NW Eur) EUR 638.6 2.5 –4.

Key fallers

Sugar white (ICE) (Ldn) USD 342.6 –4.8 3.

Wheat feed (ICE) (EU) GBP 151.3 –4 –12.

Wheat mill (Euronext) EUR 185 –2 –0.

Tea (Sri Lanka) LKR 585 –0.8 –7.

Orange conc (ICE) (US) US cent 109.8 –0.7 –34.

Source: Mintec. Note: All prices are indicative only and are representative within the country quoted

Crude oil prices have continued
to rise month on month due to
a combination of two factors:
the continuing tensions in the
Strait of Hormuz over attacks to
oil tankers and a tropical storm
in the Gulf of Mexico.
The USA’s soyabean oil
production has also suff ered
from the weather, with heavy
rains causing severe fl ooding
in the commodity’s principal
growing areas. Consequently,
prices are up month on month.
Sugar prices have taken a
hit since the start of June as

rainfall is expected to increase

crop yields in India. A potential

higher output coupled with

large stockpiles from the

record-breaking previous

season have pushed global

prices down.

An increase in supplies aft er

the harvesting of winter wheat

has seen EU wheat prices fall

month on month.

Commodity and Wholesale prices data

supplied by Mintec. Mintec is the principal

independent source of information for

commodities and raw materials. Mintec

monitors the key factors that are vital for efficient

procurement and provides sophisticated tools for analysing

and interpreting market information. http://www.mintecglobal.com

commodity prices: crude oil prices continue to rise