Barron\'s - 22.07.2019

(C. Jardin) #1

Stocks Wait and See


Markets appeared to be waiting for


a rate cut—how big?—and for earn-


ings season to end. The big banks


mostly topped analyst estimates, but


net interest margins narrowed. Net-


flix saw its U.S. subscriber numbers


fall, Microsoft blew the doors off its


earnings, and President Trump


warned that China talks could take a


long time. In central bankdom,


South Korea, Indonesia, and South


Africa reduced rates. For the week,


the Dow industrials fell 0.64% to


27,155.83; the S&P 500 lost 1.23% to


2976.81; and the Nasdaq Composite


shed 1.18% to 8146.49.


More Delays for MAX


American Airlines Group.............10,M


extended cancellations of Boeing


737 MAX planes into the end of the


year. The schedule for flying the


planes now could be pushed back to


January, as delays in fixing flight-


control software and getting gov-


ernment approvals have mounted.


Boeing set aside $5 billion to com-


pensate airlines for the delays.


Tweeting on the Edge


Trump engaged in a multiday tweet


attack against four Democratic rep-


resentatives, starting it off by sug-


gesting they could go back to their


“crime-infested” home countries.


Three were born in the U.S., and all


four are citizens. Critics called the


attacks racist, and the House passed


a resolution condemning the lan-


guage but failed in an attempt to


begin impeachment. On Wednesday,


at a Trump rally, the crowd chanted,


“Send her back,” when the president


mentioned one of the four, Minne-


sota Rep. Ilhan Omar.


Debt Ceiling Rerun


Treasury Secretary Steven


Mnuchin said talks on a debt ceiling


ceiling before the August recess.


House Majority Leader Nancy


Pelosi then shot that down, saying


the ceiling and the budget had to be


done together. By Friday, Mnuchin


said the two sides agreed to a two-


year deal and spending levels, and


were working on spending offsets.


Tech in the Dock


Apple , Amazon.com , Alphabet ,


and Facebook testified for several


days before Congress, hit by every-


thing from privacy to censorship to


political concerns. Facebook also


had to deal with questions involving


its virtual currency, Libra. Mean-


while, the Federal Trade Commis-


sion and the Department of Justice


may be readying antitrust cases


against Big Tech. And President


Trump tweeted that the govern-


ment will look into charges raised


by investor Peter Thiel that Google


had ties to the Chinese government.


Freezing Fuel Efficiency


The Trump administration approved


freezing Obama-era rules that hiked


penalties for failing to meet fuel-effi-


ciency standards. A number of major


car makers protested the move,


which they said would significantly


raise compliance costs.


Barry Blows Through


Hurricane Barry made landfall on


the Gulf Coast last Saturday, dump-


ing rain across the region, though


sparing New Orleans. Some 70% of


the oil and 55% of the natural gas


in the Gulf of Mexico was shut off


as the storm rolled through.


Deals Under Stress


The Justice Department reportedly


gave T-Mobile US a week to com-


plete talks to sell assets or it would


block its $26 billion deal for Sprint.


And Carl Icahn launched a proxy


Review


Review


Electric Race Cars Get Interactive


Powered by 5G and Fans


We saw the future of live entertainment in a recent electric-car


contest. The event: the 2019 ABB Formula E race, run through


the streets of Brooklyn’s Red Hook. In its fifth season, Formula


E is an all-electric, open-wheel racing series with 13 races and


11 teams fielding two cars each. Speeds can hit 170 miles an


hour, and cars produce sounds akin to a Star Wars battle.


As in many racing series, top speeds are capped—the top


speed is limited by power-output rules. Cars could go faster


by sending more juice to the motors. In Formula E, fans can


vote for their favorite drivers, which, thanks to connectivity,


can be translated into a power boost—so more popularity


equates to more speed.


If it sounds a little like Nintendo’s Mario Kart , it is. And


there’s more. Drivers who choose to pass through a power-boost


lane can get roughly 10% more power for a minute or two. For-


mula E calls this “attack mode.” Cars glow when it’s active.


There are investment implications here. Interactivity is en-


abled by higher-speed data connections. It’s one example of


new applications enabled by coming network standards like


5G. It also highlights the benefits of live entertainment to con-


tent operators like WaltDisney —viewers can’t DVR the event


if they want to participate in fan voting. And it’s yet another


example of how social media keeps fans engaged: Formula E


voting requires a Twitter sign-in.


Consider what videogame companies such as Electronic


Arts could do with technology like this. Inside the race village


next to the grandstand, fans can race a driver in a Formula E


videogame during the race. So what’s next? Crowdsourced


penalty flags during NFL games? A four-point power boost


for the NBA’s Steph Curry? Or 30 seconds tacked onto a


hockey power play if a team holds the puck for a given amount


Electric Race Cars Get Interactive


Powered by 5G and Fans


The Numbers


Numbers by Barron’s, a daily


podcast, dug into this trio of


vital statistics this past week.


36%: Blue Apron’s stock


surge after adding Beyond Meat


to its menus.


1%: Surveyed fund managers


who think inflation will increase


globally in the next 12 months.


19%: Analysts bullish on Mi-


crosoft stock before the com-


pany reported earnings.


Sign up wherever you listen to


podcasts or head to Barron’s/


podcasts for more information.


Dow Indicator DowIndustrials 27154.20 – 177.83 DowGlobalIndex 404.76 – 2.63 10-YearTreasuryBonds 2.05 – 0.


He Said:


“Many players have


attempted to use


cryptocurrencies to


fund their malign


behavior...”


Treasury Secretary Steven


Mnuchin


Preview


Preview


ConsensusEstimate


Day Time Consensus Est Last Period


T 10:00 JuneExistingHomeSales 5,330,000 5,340,


W 10:00 JuneNewHomeSales 650,000 626,


TH 8:30 JuneDurableGoods 0.65% -1.30%


8:30 JuneWholesaleInventories 0.2% 0.4%

F 8:30 Q2GDP-a 1.8% 3.1%


ComingEarnings


Day Consensus Year
Estimate Ago

M


HALLIBURTON(2Q) $0.30 $0.


T Target...................................

CHUBB(2Q) 2.56 2.


TEXASINSTRUMENTS(2Q) 1.22 1.


VISA(3Q) 1.32 1.


BIOGEN(2Q) 7.49 5.


LOCKHEEDMARTING(2Q) 4.77 4.


FIRSTENERGY(2Q) 0.61 0.


TRAVELERS(2Q) 2.32 1.


KIMBERLY-CLARK(2Q) 1.61 1.


COCA-COLA(2Q) 0.62 0.


UNITEDTECHNOLOGIES(2Q) 2.04 1.


MoreEarningsonPageM

Monday 22


The Chicago Fed releases its National


Activity Index. Look for a reading of


0.10 in June compared with a -0.


reading in May.


Halliburton , SteelDynamics , GNC


Holdings , and ZionsBancorp are


among the companies reporting finan-


cial results.


Tuesday 23


The Federal Housing Finance Agency


releases its Home Price Index for


June. The index is expected to grow at


0.4% as it did in May.


The National Association of Realtors


releases existing-home sales for June.


Sales are expected to remain flat at a


seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.


million units from May’s 5.34 million.


Financial results are coming fast and


furious this week. Today look for


earnings conference calls from Snap.


RobertHalfInternational , Visa ,


DiscoverFinancialServices , Chi-


potleMexicanGrill , Whirlpool ,


Coca-Cola , UnitedTechnologies ,


LockheedMartin , Harley-Davidson ,


and Travelers.


The International Monetary Fund re-


leases its World Economic Outlook


update.


Wednesday 24


The Census Bureau releases new-home


sales data for June. Consensus esti-


mates are for a seasonally adjusted


annual rate of 650,000 homes from


May’s rate of 626,000.


Former Special Counsel Robert Muel-


ler’s testimony before Congress is


expected after being postponed so


that lawmakers could reach an agree-


ment allowing them more time for


questioning.


Tesla, Deutsche Bank , AT&T , United


ParcelService , GlaxoSmithKline ,


HiltonWorldwideHoldings , Boeing ,


Facebook and FordMotor release


financial results.


Thursday 25


The European Central Bank holds its


monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.


Analysts expect the bank to cut its key


interest rate, now at minus 0.4%, or


signal a rate cut before its September


meeting. ECB officials have signaled


they’ll consider interest-rate cuts or


the relaunch of the bond-buying pro-


gram to stimulate the euro-zone, which


is suffering from slowing growth and


trade disputes.


Southwest Airlines,AlaskaAir


Group , SpiritAirlines , Alphabet ,


Amazon.com , Bristol-MyersSquibb ,


O’ReillyAutomotive ,and MGMRe-


sortsInternational hold earnings


calls with investors.


New orders for manufactured durable


goods for June are released by the


Census Bureau. Expect new orders to


rise by 0.65% up from May’s 1.3%


drop. Excluding transportation, orders


are seen rising 0.2% against May’s


0.45% increase.


Friday 26


The Bureau of Economic Analysis re-


leases the advance estimate of gross


domestic product for the second quar-


ter. Estimates call for economic growth


to slow to an annual rate of 1.8%, com-


pared with 3.1% for the first quarter.


Colgate-Palmolive,McDonald’s , Phil-


lips66 Twitter and PrincipalFinan


Formore


informationaboutcoming


economicreports–and


whattheymean–goto


Barrons.com’sfree


EconomicCalendar.


Tuesday 23 The U.K.’s Conservative Party is


expected to announce its choice for prime minister


and party leader to replace outgoing Theresa May.


The two contenders: Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson.


Big-Budget Sequels and Reboots


Disney’s Magic Formula


Opening globally this weekend, WaltDisney ’s reboot


of the 1994 animated film The Lion King looks ready


to roar at the box office. The film opened to a $54. 7


million haul in China on Friday, ahead of similar re-


makes of TheJungleBook in 2016 and Beauty&The


Beast in 2017, which both debuted in the mid-$40 mil-


lion range in China and grossed over $2.2 billion com-


bined worldwide.


TheLionKing is representative of Disney’s low-risk,


high-reward modus operandi: big-budget, can’t-miss se-


quels from popular franchises and reboots of classics. Its


2019 slate includes live-action remakes of Aladdin and


Dumbo ; the next Star Wars installment ; Toy Story 4 ,


Frozen 2 , Avengers: Endgame ; and a sequel to 2014’s


Maleficent , itself a spinoff of 1959’s Sleeping Beauty.


The strategy propelled Disney to $7.3 billion at the


box office in 2018, including three of the top five highest-


grossing films: Avengers:InfinityWar , BlackPanther ,


and Incredibles 2. Disney captured almost a fifth of


global movie ticket sales.


21st Century Fox, which Disney acquired last year,


largely represents a more traditional way of making


movies. Its latest big-budget installment of the X-Men


franchise, June’s DarkPhoenix , flopped. Its other two


summer releases, buddy-cop film Stuber and comedy-


drama TheArtofRacingintheRain , aren’t expected


to raise eyebrows at their box-office hauls, though each


costs a fraction of Disney’s hits.


Meanwhile, for those who miss the theatrical run,


The Lion King will soon be coming to a streaming


player near you. The film is sure to get prime billing


when Disney launches its Disney+ streaming service


later this year. —NICHOLASJASINSKI

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