Barron\'s - 22.07.2019

(C. Jardin) #1

34 BARRON’S July22,2019


investment choices, emphasizing sover-


eign bonds. Such legwork is critical


because they often make bets outside


their funds’ benchmark indexes, which


can bolster relative returns.


“The index isn’t always where the


opportunities are,” says Stein. For ex-


ample, the pair has minimal exposure to


South African debt—a major emerging


market economy—because of that na-


tion’s worsening budget situation, youth


unemployment crisis, and government


corruption.


The two are “early movers,” says


Benjamin Joseph, a Morningstar ana-


lyst. “When you can take an early posi-


tion and when you know what you’re


doing, you can deliver a first-mover


advantage.”


Cirami covers emerging markets,


while Stein covers Asia and Western


Europe. They met as analysts on a tiny


global income team at Eaton Vance in


the early 2000s. Today, they oversee


around 50 people.


“The nice thing about emerging


markets debt is if you do your home-


work and get your analysis correct, you


can avoid the downside and capture


some nice upside in more positive, re-


form-oriented countries,” says Cirami.


The two remain bullish on emerging


Eaton Vance


Emerging Markets


Debt Opportunities


Note: Holdings as of 5/31. Returns through 6/30, three- and five-
year returns are annualized. Source: Eaton Vance


Total Return


1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr


EADOX 6.4% 6.0% 3.61%


JPM GBI-EM


Global Diversified


9.0 4.2 -0.5


Top 10 Countries for


Debt Holdings


% of Assets


Egypt 12.3


Nigeria 11.1


Ukraine 9.9


Serbia 8.7


Peru 7.0


Bahrain 5.7


Sri Lanka 3.7


Argentina 3.5


Indonesia 3.6


Thailand 3.4


Total 25.6


markets, as much as it goes against


their constitution. “I spent my life be-


ing bearish,” says Cirami, “which


serves emerging markets debt inves-


tors quite well.”


Ten years ago, Cirami was visiting


Serbia, which has had a history of vio-


lent conflict between nationalists and


those oriented toward the European


Union. But a visit with a political ana-


lyst gleaned a critical insight. “The local


population was exhausted from conflict,


and as a result, the political spectrum


was narrowing,” Cirami recalls. That


made foreign and economic policy eas-


ier to predict. Today, Serbia is near the


tail-end of a decadelong reform story—


it liberalized its business environment,


massively reduced budget deficits, and


balanced its budget with IMF support.


While yields have fallen dramatically


across the globe, Serbia remains attrac-


tive to the duo. It recently issued


seven-year local bonds at 3.59%. Com-


parable bonds were yielding 2.28% in


Poland and 1.48% in the Czech Repub-


lic. Serbia accounts for around 9% of


the Emerging Markets Debt Opportu-


nities fund and is also held in the Eaton


Vance Emerging Markets Local Income


fund (EEIAX).


Two years ago, the pair finally wa-


gered on Egypt, which “went from cri-


sis to vulnerable,” Cirami says. “That’s


an interesting move for an emerging


markets story, and usually some nice


returns come along with that.” After


the 2016 currency devaluation, the gov-


ernment reduced the budget, privatized


assets, and improved business condi-


tions. Interest rates on Egyptian Trea-


sury bills—the top holding in Emerging


Markets Debt Opportunities—are 15%.


The fund’s newest position is


Ukraine, whose debt Cirami and Stein


started buying last year. They were


early believers that Volodymyr Zel-


ensky, the onetime comedian elected


president this year, will be able to re-


duce corruption and speed economic


reforms, making Ukraine hospitable to


foreign capital and setting the stage for


faster growth.


Over the past few weeks, five- to


10-year Ukraine bonds denominated in


U.S. dollars have seen yields some five


to six percentage points higher than


those of comparable U.S. Treasuries.


It’s a classic emerging markets turn-


around story, says Cirami. For share-


holders, it would be another example


of the duo’s ability to find opportuni-


ties, often ahead of others.


Scoreboard: GoodasGold


(Fundsinvestingingold,silver,andotherpreciousmetalscontinuedtorally,rising6.72%fortheweek,


and30.44%fortheyear.U.S.stockfundstreadedwater,whilenaturalresourceslost3.7%.


OneWeek Year-to-Date


U.S.STOCKFUNDS 0% 18.90%


TOPSECTOR/PreciousMetalsEquityFunds 6.72 30.44


BOTTOMSECTOR/NaturalResourcesFunds – 3.71 7.38


S&P500 – 0.16 19.48


U.S.BONDFUNDS 0.27 6.09


BloombergBarclaysAGGBond 0.48 5.43


THEWEEK'STOP25


Fund InvestmentObjective OneWeek Year-to-Date


USGlblGold&PM/USERX PreciousMetalsEq 9.80% 33.7%


USGlblWorldPM/UNWPX PreciousMetalsEq 9.34 17.0


EuroPacGoldA/EPGFX PreciousMetalsEq 9.26 28.0


RydexPreciousMetlsInv/RYPMX PreciousMetalsEq 8.99 32.5


VanEckIntlGoldI/INIIX PreciousMetalsEq 7.67 34.3


MidasFund/MIDSX PreciousMetalsEq 7.63 30.6


OCMGoldInv/OCMGX PreciousMetalsEq 7.43 36.0


TocquevilleGoldFund/TGLDX PreciousMetalsEq 7.42 27.6


USAAPrecMet&MinFund/USAGX PreciousMetalsEq 7.25 33.3


InvscOppenGld&SMA/OPGSX PreciousMetalsEq 6.95 35.4


AmerCentGlGoldInv/BGEIX PreciousMetalsEq 6.85 31.0


GabelliGoldAAA/GOLDX PreciousMetalsEq 6.69 32.2


FranklinGld&PrMtA/FKRCX PreciousMetalsEq 6.30 34.0


WellsFargoPrecMetA/EKWAX PreciousMetalsEq 6.29 33.3


FidelitySelGold/FSAGX PreciousMetalsEq 6.05 28.9


FirstEagleGoldI/FEGIX PreciousMetalsEq 5.27 27.2


InvescoGold&PrecA/IGDAX PreciousMetalsEq 5.04 26.4


RydexElectronicsInv/RYSIX Science&Tech 3.24 32.3


FidelitySelSemicnd/FSELX Science&Tech 3.16 32.8


FidelityAdvSemicndA/FELAX Science&Tech 3.15 32.5


AQRMgdFutStrHVI/QMHIX AltMgdFutures 3.08 6.9


AltegrisGSATrendStrN/TRNNX AltMulti-Strategy 3.01 0.7


GoldBullionStratInv/QGLDX PreciousMetalsEq 2.78 12.5


EventideHlthcare&LSI/ETIHX Health/Biotech 2.62 35.1


TowleDeepValue/TDVFX Small-CapValue 2.49 9.7


THEWEEK'SBOTTOM10


Fund InvestmentObjective OneWeek Year-to-Date


VictoryGlNatResY/RSNYX GLNaturalResourc – 9.29% – 27.1%


RydexEnergySvcsInv/RYVIX NaturalResources – 7.49 1.6


FidelitySelEnrgySer/FSESX NaturalResources – 7.12 – 0.6


FidelitySelNatGas/FSNGX NaturalResources – 5.97 5.3


IvyEnergyI/IVEIX NaturalResources – 5.52 3.4


InvscOppenSPPanoA/EESAX EnergyMLPFunds – 4.98 6.3


UprightGrowthFund/UPUPX GlobalMulti-CapValue – 4.92 – 5.1


InvescoEnergyA/IENAX NaturalResources – 4.87 4.5


GoldmanCommStrI/GCCIX CommoditiesGeneral – 4.75 9.8


Matthew25Fund/MXXVX Multi-CapCore – 4.57 25.3


THELARGEST25


Assets 3-Year* 1-Week YTD


Fund (billions) InvestmentObjective Return Return Return


FidelityContrafund/FCNTX $95.5 Large-CapGrowth 17.4% – 0.59% 23.7%


AmericanFundsGroA/AGTHX 89.9 Large-CapGrowth 15.1 – 0.74 19.4


VanguardWellingtonAdm/VWENX 88.7 MixTgtAllGro 9.4 0.25 14.2


AmericanFundsIncA/AMECX 73.6 MixTgtAllMod 6.8 0.40 11.7


AmericanFundsBalA/ABALX 70.9 MixTgtAllGro 8.7 0.22 12.4


AmericanFundsEuPcR6/RERGX 70.9 IntlLarge-CapGrowth 10.0 0.77 19.4


Dodge&CoxStock/DODGX 70.8 Large-CapValue 13.3 – 0.02 14.5


PIMCOIncomeInst/PIMIX 67.2 Multi-SectorInc 6.0 0.02 5.8


AmericanFundsCIBA/CAIBX 65.1 GlobalEquityIncome 5.1 0.42 11.3


AmericanFundsICAA/AIVSX 60.9 Large-CapCore 10.3 0.03 15.7


Dodge&CoxIncome/DODIX 59.6 CoreBond 3.5 0.36 6.8


AmericanFundsWashA/AWSHX 59.3 Large-CapCore 12.6 – 0.09 16.5


VanguardPRIMECAPAdm/VPMAX 58.0 Large-CapCore 16.6 0.80 15.3


AmericanFundsFInvA/ANCFX 53.0 Large-CapCore 12.4 0.25 17.1


AmericanFundsCWGIA/CWGIX 52.2 GlobalLarge-CapCore 9.9 0.14 17.0


PIMCOTotRtnInst/PTTRX 50.6 CorePlusBond 3.1 0.65 6.3


Dodge&CoxIntlStock/DODFX 49.9 IntlLarge-CapCore 7.5 – 0.60 12.6


DoubleLineTotRtnI/DBLTX 45.8 USMortgage 2.9 0.47 4.5


VanguardTgtRet2025Inv/VTTVX 43.6 Mixed-AssetTarget2025 8.2 0.26 13.4


AmericanFundsNPerA/ANWPX 43.3 GlobalLarge-CapGrowth 13.7 0.31 20.7


VanguardWellesleyAdm/VWIAX 43.2 MixTgtAllocCon 5.9 0.45 11.4


MetWestTotalReturnI/MWTIX 42.8 CorePlusBond 2.6 0.51 6.5


VanguardSh-TmInvAdm/VFSUX 42.0 ShortInvGrade 2.3 0.24 4.3


TRowePriceBCGro/TRBCX 42.0 Large-CapGrowth 21.3 – 0.08 24.6


FidelityStrAdvCreInc/FPCIX 41.3 GeneralBond 3.1 0.50 6.7


*Annualized07/14/2016to07/18/2019.ThroughThursday. Source:Lipper
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