Barron\'s - 22.07.2019

M38 BARRON’S July22,2019

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 3 3 21 / 2

PrimeRate(base) 51 / 2 51 / 2 5

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 22 / 5 216 / 39 153 / 57

Avg weekly auction-c 2.40 2.41 1.91

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 2.162 2.259 2.018

13 weeks, Auction Rate 2.115 2.210 1.980

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 2.064 2.132 2.193

26 weeks, Auction Rate 2.010 2.075 2.140
Avg weekly auction-c 2.16 2.16 1.94

BrokerCallRate 4 1/4 4 1/4 3 3/4

BankersAcceptances

1 month 2.43 2.43 1.93

2 months 2.35 2.35 2.08

3 months 2.30 2.30 2.23

6 months 2.20 2.20 2.35

EuroLiborRate*(EuriborInterbanknolongeravailablefromsource)

1 month -0.446 -0.433 -0.402

3 months -0.414 -0.400 -0.356

6 months -0.426 -0.395 -0.319

12 months -0.340 -0.314 -0.234

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 2.26 2.33 2.08

3 months 2.26 2.32 2.35

6 months 2.14 2.23 2.53

12 months 2.16 2.23 2.81

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 3.95 3.95 3.70

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50

Britain 0.75 0.75 0.50

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 3.30 3.42 4.13

Bank money market-z 0.24 0.24 0.20

Interest Checking-z 0.08 0.08 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.64 0.64 0.34

12-Month Certif-z 0.92 0.94 0.69
30 Month Accounts-z 0.95 0.97 0.93

5-Year Certificates-z 1.31 1.32 1.27

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.

Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.

Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

2.80

2.35

1.90

1.45

1.00

0.55

S&P 100 CBOE

JA S O N D J F M A M J J

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source: CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

s

CBOE s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedJul17:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,627,486 -3,012 -460,572

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 8 -10 -46

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 107 + 5 -96

Float -197 + 13 -14

OtherF.R.Assets 28,441 + 1,532 -2,618

TotalFedCredit# 3,773,459 -1,707 -482,808

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 49,992 + 14 + 360

Total 3,860,558 -1,641 -482,603

Currencyincirc 1,747,393 -3,599 + 78,761

Treas.CashHldgs 161 -7 -35

Treas.FedDeposits 197,005 -14,110 -127,452

ForeignFedDeposits 5,255 + 2 -3

OtherFedDeposits 70,071 + 15,244 -12,564

OtherFRliab/cap 45,130 + 459 + 5

Totalfactors 2,344,894 -17,499 -31,148

ReservesF.R.banks 1,515,664 + 15,858 -451,455

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,465,554 + 7,326 + 57,854

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Jul17: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,570,546 1,549,087 1.39 2,025,002

Nonborrowed Res # 1,570,429 1,548,986 1.38 2,024,776

Required Res ## 189,516 212,928 -11.00 179,517

ExcessReserves: 1,381,030 1,336,159 3.36 1,845,485

Borrowed Reserves 118 101 16.83 226

Free Reserves ### 1,380,912 1,336,058 3.36 1,845,259

MonetaryBase 3,256,928 3,222,391 1.07 3,633,054

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

SouthKorea (Won) .0008503 .0008494 1176.11 1177.32

SriLanka (Rupee) .0057 .0057 175.8000 176.1400

Sweden (Krona) .1066 .1067 9.3827 9.3682

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0185 1.0162 .9818 .9841

Taiwan (Dollar) .03221 .03220 31.046 31.053

Thailand (Baht) .03243 .03236 30.840 30.900

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1768 .1748 5.6548 5.7199

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0389 .0388 25.7370 25.7785

U.K. (Pound) 1.2502 1.2576 .7999 .7952

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02847 .02840 35.130 35.210

----

Euro 1.1221 1.1270 .8911 .8874

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,July19,2019

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0236 .0240 42.3840 41.5903

Australia (Dollar) .7040 .7019 1.4205 1.4247

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6522 2.6522 .3770 .3770

Brazil (Real) .2668 .2675 3.7486 3.7383

Bulgaria (Lev) .5735 .5762 1.7437 1.7354

Canada (Dollar) .7658 .7675 1.3059 1.3029

Chile (Peso) .001453 .001471 688.30 679.80

China (Renminbi) .1453 .1453 6.8819 6.8808

Colombia (Peso) .0003150 .0003132 3174.58 3192.75

Croatia (Kuna) .1520519 .1524460 6.58 6.56

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercial rate .04395 .04405 22.752 22.703

Denmark (Krone) .1503 .1509 6.6533 6.6252

Ecuador US Dollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0602 .0602 16.6170 16.6185

HongKong (Dollar) .1281 .1278 7.8080 7.8233

Hungary (Forint) .003452 .003458 289.65 289.15

Iceland (Krona) .007997 .007943 125.05 125.90

India (Rupee) .01453 .01458 68.840 68.566

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000718 .0000714 13935 14007

Israel (Shekel) .2825 .2813 3.5396 3.5554

Japan (Yen) .009283 .009267 107.72 107.90

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002611 .002603 383.05 384.23

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2850 3.2894 .3044 .3040

Macau (Pataca) .1244 .1241 8.0403 8.0577

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2433 .2431 4.1098 4.1130

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0526 .0527 19.0293 18.9896

NewZealand (Dollar) .6762 .6693 1.4789 1.4941

Norway (Krone) .1167 .1172 8.5724 8.5316

Oman (Rial) 2.5972 2.5974 .3850 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00625 .00628 159.950 159.125

Philippines (Peso) .01958 .01956 51.080 51.120

Poland (Zloty) .2639 .2640 3.7889 3.7885

Qatar (Rial) .2745 .2746 3.6434 3.6412

Russia (Ruble)-a .01587 .01587 63.011 63.000

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7506 3.7504

Singapore (Dollar) .7352 .7366 1.3602 1.3575

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0717 .0716 13.9382 13.9582

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 7/19 7/12 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1439.70 1407.60 1228.75

Silver,troyounce 16.13 15.17 15.50

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1482.73 57.03 4.00

MapleLeaf 1496.99 71.29 5.00

MexicanPeso 1726.97 8.00 0.47

AustriaCrown 1400.47 3.00 0.21

AustriaPhil 1496.99 71.29 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1496.99 71.29 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1425.70

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 7/18 7/11 Ago Chg.

536.99382.52 Gold mining 536.99 502.64462.17 +6.83

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 63% 62% 61%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 35.9% 33.6% 33.2%

Bearish 28.6 27.5 32.4

Neutral 35.4 38.9 34.5

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 54% 53% 53%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 41.0% 46.4% 46.7%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 20,358 r33,569 22,990

Municipal (z) 8,201 r8,690 9,053

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

2.94 3.05 3.84

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.77 3.86 4.77

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

78.0 78.9 80.5

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

3832.92 3794.37 3405.64

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

2964.73 2947.80 2699.45

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

292.15 290.06 270.02

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

3.45 3.46 3.83

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.69 3.69 3.96

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

–.75 –.88 –1.68

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 3.21 3.29 3.88

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedJuly8

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,818.4r3,790.73,667.4 4.12

M1(notadjusted) 3,748.7r3,966.63,578.7 4.75

M2(seas.adjusted) 14,832.8r14,832.414,128.4 4.99

M2(notadjusted) 14,871.0r14,790.514,138.2 5.18

TwoWeeksendedJuly3

M1Multiplier(St.LouisFed) r1.172 r1.152 1.006 16.50

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedJune

M1(seas.adjusted) r3,824.0r3,784.03,657.3 4.56

M2(seas.adjusted) r14,770.6r14,632.614,112.4 4.66

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

A S O N D J F M A M JJ

Barron's Gold Mining Index (536.99)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Stockpiling: Fears of a currency war–

and real conflict with Iran–lifted gold

prices 2.3%, to $1,439.70 per ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19

NYSE 1.44 1.55 1.29 1.09 1.05

NYSEAmerican 1.20 1.12 1.37 1.33 1.18

Nasdaq .81 .98 1.16 .94 1.03