How the Research Is Empirically Examined 123
Anglo-Afghan War (1878–1880), in the bipolar system of 1871–1909; the
Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919), in the multipolar system of 1910–1945;
the Soviet-Afghan War (1979–1988), in the bipolar system of 1946–1991;
and, the U.S.-Afghan War (2001), in the unipolar system of 1992–2016. In
all five cases, all variables are held constant except for the explanatory
variable, the polarity of the international systems, which varies among the
five test cases. The difference in the explanatory variable helps prove the
differences among the territorial outcomes of these five wars.
TERRITORIAL OUTCOMES IN MULTIPOLAR SYSTEMS
All three possible models of wars may occur under multipolar systems—
central wars, major wars, and minor wars. These systems will dictate two
key territorial outcomes in accordance with the war model. Multipolar
systems will dictate a single territorial outcome of the great powers con-
stituting them at the end of all central wars in which they are involved—
prevention of territorial expansion that will result in a status quo or ter-
ritorial contraction—because any other result will promote the expanding
power to the status of a potential hegemon in the system, which may lead
to the collapse of the system, a result that the homeostasis principle dictates
to players to act to prevent. In multipolar systems, great powers will also
be penalized if they try to expand territorially at the end of central wars and
will be forced to contract territorially at the end of these wars.
In the period assessed in the study, 1816–2016, there were two multipo-
lar systems, 1849–1870 and 1910–1945. In that period there were two cen-
tral wars, the First and the Second World Wars, and both were fought in
the late multipolar system of 1910–1945. In the end, the great powers that
aspired to expand territorially in the war had to contract territorially or
preserve the territorial status quo that occurred before their outbreak. Ger-
many was forced to contract territorially at the end of the two world wars,
and Japan had to contract territorially at the end of the Second World War.
Territorial expansion is not a possibility at the end of central wars that will
be fought in multipolar systems because it would lead to a rise in its total
intensity and violate the equilibrium, endangering the homeostasis, which
would dictate to the players to act to reduce it. In the period assessed in
the study, 1816–2016, there were two multipolar systems, 1849–1870 and
1910–1945. In that period, many major and minor wars were fought. At
the end of these wars, the system allowed for the territorial expansion of
the great powers: in the multipolar system of the 19th century, the system
allowed Prussia to expand territorially in its unification wars; in the multi-
polar system of the 20th century, the system allowed Italy to expand in its
war against Ethiopia (1935–1936).
Territorial expansion of great powers at the end of major or minor wars
in multipolar systems stems from the way in which multipolar systems